Nile Gardiner gives ten reasons why Barack Obama's presidency is in decline. For me, the key is that Obama is politically tone deaf. He does not connect to the audience in the way that Clinton and Reagan did. Some of us understood this during the campaign. A friend of mine, an iconic American Liberal no less, described Obama as "an empty suit". Bingo. Barack Obama is the real-life version of the Robert Redford character in The Candidate.

Even The New York Times is beginning to understand that the old political rules may not apply in this election.

On the other hand, John Podhoretz points out a Times story that seems to indicate an inability to get beyond wishful thinking.

Karl Rove looks at polling data which indicates a 'blame Bush' strategy won't work.

More data shows an increasing volatility in the electorate in the years since the 9/11 attacks. This, of course, makes sense. 9/11 can be seen as the beginning of a period of instability. First was the fear of terror attacks, and the expansion of the national security state to meet those threats. Then the launch of two wars which seem to have no end. This was all happening while the economy was in a period of increasing volatility, leading up to the financial crisis of '08 and the Great Recession which followed. That led to the election of a 'hope and change' candidate, who turned out to be an empty suit, spewing leftist pablum and, more worrisome, weakening America's standing abroad and expanding the size and scope of government at home. Just more evidence that we will see a big wave in November. Of course, if things don't get any better, there is no predicting what might happen in 2012.