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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Gallup says the big story of this election is disproportionate enthusiasm. Republicans are fired up, and Democrats are depressed.

The Democrats had hoped that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts would result in an issue they could use this November. They would campaign for extending the cuts for the middle class while letting taxes go up on the "rich". Big winner, right? Wrong. They end up with nothing, facing an electorate that doesn't like them much (they don't like the Republicans, either, but the Republicans are not running the show).

Michael Barone says polling data indicates the Democrats are retreating to their bicoastal base.

David Broder sees bad news for the Democrats when he looks at the numbers.

Victor Davis Hanson says the Democrats won't win any elections by insulting the voters.

George Will believes the Democrats, faced with no other options, are resorting to pounding the table.

So, where do all our Federal tax dollars go?

Jay Cost looks at why the most recent polls from California show the Democratic candidates doing better.

In the end, it is all about turnout. If fired up Republicans turn out in higher numbers than they did in 2006 (the last midterm), while only and equal or fewer Democrats turn out than that year, the GOP will make gains. If independent voters turn out in similar numbers to '06, but are leaning heavily toward the Republicans (as polling seems to indicate), which would be a complete turnaround from their behavior in '06, then the GOP gains would range from substantial to gigantic.

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