A new CNN poll says the Republican advantage is growing as we get closer to the midterm elections.

Clive Crook, writing in The Financial Times, says Democrats are headed for a drubbing.

In The Wall Street Journal, this column is about the anti-incumbent wave (and, since Democrats hold the majority of seats, it will be worse for them than for the GOP).

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Republicans making big gains.

Jay Cost, writing in The Weekly Standard, says it has been a brutal week for the Democrats.

Hmmm....I notice a trend here, don't you?

Why is it happening? The first, and simplest, answer is the economy. Things look bad to the average American, even if their own personal circumstances are pretty good, since just about everyone knows someone who has lost a job, or who is sitting in a house they cannot sell, or is running a business that is just crawling along. But it is more than the economy, I think.

The Tea Party folks, it seems to me, represent a significant percentage of mostly white, working and middle class Americans. In the past we have called them Middle America, or the Silent Majority, but they are essentially the same people. They are the people who follow the rules, obey the law, go to school, get married, buy a house, have kids, hope to save enough for retirement and send those kids to a decent school. Most of these folks are independent voters today (during the period 1932 to 1968 they were mostly Democrats, but since then they have been more split between the parties, and since the late 1980s they have become less attached to any party) but their ideological instincts tend to skew conservative, since their lives are lived in a conservative way.

This is not to say that there are not non-white people in their ranks, or who feel the same way. There are indeed, which makes things even more difficult for the Democrats this time around. The only ethnic group that can be counted on to vote for the Democrats this time are African-Americans, historically the most reliable part of the Democratic base, and this time also motivated by a desire to support President Obama. But they are not enough to save the Democrats.

White, working class voters were skeptical of Obama the candidate, mostly voting for Hillary Clinton. They gave him their votes in 2008 because they were tired of the Republicans, and because he ran as a centrist. His alliance with Reid and Pelosi on a left-wing agenda, combined with his apparent weakness on foreign policy, and the fact that the economy has not improved, all have led to their abandonment of the President and his party. This does not mean that the GOP is poised for some long-term takeover. If things do not get better, and if the GOP seems to be no more capable than the Democrats, they will also feel the wrath of those voters.

"Fasten your seat belts, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride".