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Friday, September 10, 2010

Political analyst Charlie Cook says the Democrats have reached a tipping point and will certainly lose the House. In fact, he believes the losses will be "well north" of the 39 seats that would give the GOP control of the lower chamber. He counts 80 seats as in play, and while he does not believe the Republicans will win all 80, he certainly expects they will win a majority of them.

GOP insiders are skeptical about all of these predictions of a landslide and are urging their people to keep working. I was expecting this, as the Republican leadership knows that the Democrats are deliberately lowering their expectations so that anything short of a huge win by the GOP can be painted as a loss. Republicans also know that they need to keep their base excited.

Jay Cost says new polling data from Maine shows the Democrats are weakening in a place they should be holding without a problem, which he sees as just another sign of a looming catastrophe for them.

If I had to guess, I would say the GOP will win about 60 seats, but I'll make a final prediction just before the election. As Glenn Reynolds would say, though, channeling Han Solo, "Don't get cocky, kid".

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