Could a new political movement be building in this country? Here is one theory. I think it is a pretty good analysis. Right now, the Tea Party movement is diffuse and disorganized, but that may change over time. The successful political movements in this country tended to be focused on one issue; the Abolitionists wanted to abolish slavery, the Temperance movement wanted to stop alcohol abuse, the anti-war movement wanted to stop the war in Vietnam. Or they coalesced around a set of issues as defined and personified by a personality; the Jacksonian Democrats, the Bryan Populists, the Perot Reform Party. Typically, successful movements saw their ideals adopted. Slavery was abolished, laws were passed restricting and regulating alcohol use (although Prohibition was a colossal overreach), the war in Vietnam was ended, as was the military draft. Sometimes, their ideals were adopted by one of the two major political parties. The Democrats became Jacksonian in the 1830s. The Republican Party was formed in the 1850s in large part to take a strong anti-slavery stand. The Democrats nominated William Jennings Bryan three times for President and, obviously, adopted many of his populist positions (even though he lost each time). The anti-war folks essentially became part of the Democratic base, as they still are today. The Buckley-Goldwater-Reagan conservatives are now the GOP base. What will happen with the Tea Party movement? I suspect that it will be absorbed inside the Republican Party. If that does not happen, if the Republican establishment refuses to follow the lead of the Tea Party folks, then the GOP will see any gains made in this election erased in the next one.

New polling data shows that Latinos are not enthusiastic about voting this November. That, of course, is very bad news for the Democrats.

Some more thoughts on the stunning likely voter numbers issued by Gallup the other day. If those numbers are right (and I have my doubts), the GOP will party in November like it '94...not 1994, 1894, when they won 100 seats.

Dick Morris seems to think we might be approaching that neighborhood, as he sees a widening turnout gap.

Perhaps part of the problem for the Democrats is that their base, those 60s anti-war hippies, now deep into middle age or approaching retirement, who hold very left-wing views on foreign policy, are angry with the President. They wanted Obama to not only apologise for America's many sins (which he did), but also to immediately withdraw our troops from Iraq, quickly withdraw them from Afghanistan, close the detention facility at Guantanamo and release the men held there, end the CIA drone strikes and so-called "non-judicial killings", call for deep cuts in the defense budget, and the like. Obama, once off the campaign trail and in the White House, did none of those things once he was given the facts of life and realized he was responsible for keeping America secure.