A NIGHT TO REMEMBER

It was a night to remember. The Republicans are poised to pick up at least 60 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate (very close to my pre-election prediction of 60 and 8). This is a stunning repudiation of the Democrats and the President. The only reason the Republicans did not get even closer to taking the Senate is because they nominated some very poor candidates in several states.

Perhaps just as important for the GOP is how well they did in the states. In the various races for state gubernatorial offices, the Republicans are looking at at a net gain of 8 to perhaps 10 seats, including the big states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. The only real big loss is California, which is very big, of course, but not unexpected. They also flipped some state legislatures, including New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alabama and Wisconsin. These new Republican governors and state legislatures will be in charge of redistricting, which will have significant consequences going forward for control of the U.S. House.

Here in New Hampshire, it was a massive wipeout for the Democrats. Only Governor Lynch could stand the tsunami as he defeated John Stephen. In the 1st CD, Frank Guinta blasted Carol Shea-Porter out of her seat, and in the 2nd CD Charlie Bass eked out a narrow victory over Annie Kuster (as I thought he would). As everyone predicted, Kelly Ayotte wiped the floor with Paul Hodes for the U.S. Senate seat.

But it is further down the ballot where the really eye-popping results can be found. The GOP will now hold all five Executive Council seats (an important body in NH state government), having taken three away from the Democrats. They could also wind up with 21 of the 24 State Senate seats and a huge majority in the State House of Representatives. Governor Lynch will probably face a veto-proof Republican majority in the State Legislature. Amazing, truly amazing.

Over the next few days I will continue to crunch the numbers, but some preliminary conclusions are in order.

First, this was a "punish the Democrats" election. Polls continue to show the GOP no more popular than the Democrats (in fact, most polls show the Republicans even less popular). The Republicans won because their base was fired up, and independents broke sharply their way.

Second, this was not just about the bad economy, although that was a big factor. This was about bailouts. Ordinary Americans simply could not abide the thought that their tax money was being used to shield foolish people from the consequences of their poor decisions. Why should fat cat bankers get my tax money because they made stupid loans? Why should the guy down the street who bought a house he couldn't afford get help paying his mortgage when I was prudent, can pay my mortgage, and get no help whatsoever? Why should stupid auto company executives get my tax money? Ford didn't need it, why should GM get it? This is the anger that saw independents jump on the GOP bandwagon.

Third, this is about healthcare. Americans do not like the third man in the room dictating their medical care. Right now that third man is, for most, the private insurance company chosen by their employer. Americans don't like it, but have learned to live with it. Now, they see the possibility that the government will be that third man for everyone, not just the poor and the elderly. Add to that the government ordering us to by a product we may not feel we need, and you get resentment.

Finally, this is about debt and deficits. Americans see how getting into debt has wrecked their own personal finances, or those of their family or neighbors. They cannot see why their state and federal governments should get into unsustainable debt.

It will be fascinating to see how President Obama addresses these issues. If he successfully assures the independents that he gets the message, he will be in a strong position to win re-election in 2012. If not, he will surely be remembered as a failed, one-term President.