ROMNEY MARCHES ON

Mitt Romney's march to the Republican presidential nomination continues with his big, if not unexpected, win in Nevada. With 100% of the vote now in Romney won with 50%. Despite the wishes of so many within the ranks of the GOP, it still appears as if there is no clear path to the nomination for any other candidate. While Gingrich, Santorum or Paul might do well in individual contests like the caucuses that will be held in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri tomorrow, so long as Romney continues to win a few along the way he remains in his position as the front runner and the most likely nominee. Current polling has Romney leading in Colorado and just behind Santorum in Minnesota. Romney needs only to win one of tomorrow's contests while doing well in the other two to keep his momentum. There is speculation that Paul might win the Maine caucuses on the 11th, but Romney will certainly win Michigan and is leading big in Arizona, both of which hold primaries on the 28th.

Since their landslide defeat in 1964, the GOP has always picked the safe candidate, which is usually the next fellow in line. Nixon re-established himself as the establishment candidate in '68, while Reagan's narrow loss to Ford in '76 set him up to be the next in line in '80. As a sitting Vice-President George H.W. Bush was next in line in '88, while the runner-up in that contest, Bob Dole, was positioned as the establishment candidate in '96. As the governor of Texas and son of the former President, George W. Bush quickly became the establishment candidate in '00, even though he had not been the runner-up in '96 (Pat Buchanan, who was the runner up that year, was completely unacceptable to the establishment and, by bolting to the Reform Party, disqualified himself in any event). John McCain, the second place guy in '00, became the establishment guy in '08. Mitt Romney was second in that contest, and is the front runner today accordingly.

It may seem pretty dull and stale, but these are Republicans we are talking about, after all. Why should we expect the conservative party to make radical, unexpected choices?