ROMNEY RESURGENT

The latest polls show Romney gaining ground in Michigan and leading in Arizona. What does this mean? First and foremost, in Michigan it means that the ad campaign is working for Mitt. But for both states, and for the national poll numbers, it means that Santorum is getting a hard look, just like Bachman, Cain, Perry and Gingrich before him. And just like those others he is beginning to look less appealing as people learn more about him.

This pattern of potential GOP voters looking for someone other than Romney to lead them in the Fall is the central theme of this campaign season. That it is such a them does not bode well for Romney. If he wins the nomination, and I still believe that he will, he will do so by default. The base of the party will not be inspired by him, which could mean potentially disastrous diminution of support, while the President is busy rebuilding the enthusiasm that got him elected in the first place.

What could derail this scenario? A significant downturn in the economy between now and November, or a foreign policy blunder by the President, or some other event or series of events that cause independent voters to question the President's competence or to blame him for for the sorry state of the country.

I would prefer a campaigner in the Reagan mold to carry the fight to Obama in the Fall, but there it is.