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Saturday, July 14, 2012

There's a solar storm coming...but the top space agencies filled with scientists who watch and study these things for a living disagree on how big it will be.  It all seems rather esoteric, until you read about the big one that hit in 1859.  If something similar were to happen today the chaos would be tremendous, and perhaps devastating to the global economy.

Ramesh Ponnuru makes the case against Condi Rice as Romney's VP.  All good points, but mostly they hinge on whether social conservatives would really stay home this November rather than take a chance that Romney would not serve out his term and Rice would become President (and that she would then sign or propose to sign legislation that would be considered pro-choice, or refuse to veto pro-choice legislation, or stand in the way of pro-life legislation, etc., etc.).

In the end, the selection of VP usually creates more media buzz than actual impact on voter behavior.  For all her foibles, Sarah Palin did not cost John McCain the election.  The McCain/Palin ticket lost to Obama/Biden because of the financial crisis.  It was going to be a close election under any circumstances, and Obama/Biden was going to get the benefit of a larger minority and youth turnout.  But they won because white, working class voters and independents swung over to them in greater numbers than would have been the case absent the financial freeze-up and collapse in real estate values.

The 2012 election will be a referendum on President Obama.  If his approval rating is 46-48 percent on election day...he loses, unless Mitt Romney's favorability ratings are worse.  The Obama people know this, which is why their only option is to paint Mitt Romney as an ogre who cannot be trusted to sit in the Oval Office.

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