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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

EXIT POLLS SHOW GOOD NEWS FOR KERRY

That, at least, is what Matt Drudge is reporting. I've been using his website as a source (and a great collection of mainstream media links) for years as show prep for my radio show. He has lots of sources inside the media and the campaigns. His practice over the last few election cycles is to release what he knows about the preliminary exit poll data as the data is collected. Apparently, the first batch of information shows Kerry "competitive in key states" and with a "small lead in Florida and Ohio". Follow the link to read what he has learned.

These results should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt. In 2000 it was erroneous exit poll data that led to the networks calling Florida for Gore in the early going. I doubt very much they will make that same mistake again.

An update....Wonkette (a blogger) is reporting these exit poll numbers that also show good news for John Kerry...

State Kerry/Bush
AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

The Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire numbers don't look right to me. While Kerry could win them all, I don't think he will win them by such large margins. Again, this is exit poll information and could be completely wrong (or, it could be right when only those who voted between 7 AM and 11 AM or so are taken into consideration).

Here is the link to Wonkette.

http://www.wonkette.com/


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