GOP INSIDERS GROWING MORE CONFIDENT

The National Review website is a great place to check out the inside buzz from the GOP perspective. Check this insider e-mail they just posted...

We are feeling very confident about Florida. So are people on the ground there, who know a good deal about these things. Among the specific facts worth noting: In DuVal County, our goal was to win by a 40,000 person margin. We’re now at a 60,000 person margin. Most of the Panhandle counties are outstanding. Eighty percent of Broward County is in. We expected to be down 200,000 -- and our worst case was that we would be down 300,000. The latest information is that we are down by 170,000. In addition, Ohio looks increasing good for us. Reports from the ground are that people are very upbeat about turnout (for example, in places like Franklin Country). Let me make a broader, and very significant, point. The media are now changing the models they are using to estimate where things stand. The actual votes underscored how flawed the exit polling data was – and so the media are making adjustments in where things stand. What does that specifically mean: The final exit polls had us down by five to six points in Wisconsin; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down three points in Iowa; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down in New Mexico; the estimates now are that we are even. The tide is turning in our direction. We aren’t ready to declare victory; but we ready to say that we feel very good about where things stand, and where things seem to be headed.

Just watching all the networks as they talk through the results and their projections I can see how they are struggling with the exit poll data. Clearly that data is not being reflected by the actual numbers. As for New Hampshire, the numbers coming in are almost certainly from the more urban areas of the state. The later numbers are from the smaller, more rural towns, which could put the state into the President's column (however narrowly).