REFLECTIONS ON THE NEWS SO FAR

After running out to pick up the kids I've done a quick survey of all the political sites that I know about. Speculation on more right-leaning sites is running rampant that the Kerry-Edwards folks planted skewed exit poll numbers that show Kerry leading in order to depress GOP turnout in the late afternoon and evening. Scroll down for my link to Mystery Pollster who explains the truth behind exit poll information. The bottom line is that this information is, like any poll, subject to numerous variables and cannot be trusted.

The area of concern for Bush partisans (like myself) is overall turnout. No one in his right mind can believe that high turnout bodes well for GOP candidates. To my knowledge, the GOP has never done well in a truly high turnout election. Marginal voters historically are either young voters (well-educated or not), poor people (usually less well-educated) or folks who have dropped out for whatever reason (crossing all demographics). Certainly one can check historic patterns and see that young people and poor people generally trend Democratic. However, 9/11 is the wild card. This is our first presidential election since the war began. The last nation-wide election we held under these conditions was in 2002, and the GOP did well (and shocked the pundits and pollsters). Anything is still possible. While I'm sticking to my Kerry victory prediction, I am prepared for anything.