THE SADR PLAN

Confirmation of what I had suspected is now available in this article from the Washington Post. Moqtada al Sadr has ordered his Mahdi Army to lay low while the "surge" is in progress. In fact, if this article is to be believed, he is letting the Americans do the dirty work of purging his organization of some of the more troublesome members. This is very shrewd of him. While he enjoys a little vacation in Iran, his enemies are arrested and imprisoned in Iraq by the Americans. His allies in the Iraqi government still know that they owe him for their positions, and that he still has the loyalty of a great percentage of the Shiites in Iraq, especially in Baghdad. Meanwhile, the Sunni insurgents are slowly worn down by the Americans and the Iraqi Army. Eventually, as Baghdad becomes more peaceful, Sadr returns, expressing his desire for peace and democracy. Whether the "surge" is considered a success or not, the Americans will leave (probably in early 2009). Then, Sadr will strike. In all likelihood, he will win.