MCCAIN, GOP (AND THE COUNTRY) ALL HEADED FOR DEFEAT

Mona Charen is worried about the GOP's chances in 2008. She is right to be worried.

John McCain is trying to re-capture the magic that propelled him to victory here in NH back in 2000. He will be unable to do so, for the simple fact that his victory then was driven by Independents who crossed over into the Republican primary. Those voters will be participating in the Democratic primary this time, according to recent polls (and my gut feeling agrees with those numbers), leaving a more conservative base to vote in the GOP primary. Those voters went mostly for George W. Bush in 2000, many because they wanted to stop McCain (full disclosure...I voted for Bush, but not because I disliked McCain, rather because his positions on the issues were closer to mine than McCain, especially on things like campaign finance reform). If he is still in the race when we go to vote here in NH (a date that is, as of yet, still unknown), he will likely finish no better than third.

Victor Davis Hanson analyzes the New York Times withdrawal editorial. Not surprisingly, Hanson believes it to be wrong on nearly every point. I agree with Hanson. In fact, I agree in my heart (and my mind) with Bill Kristol when he applauds the President for standing firm on the surge and the effort to achieve victory in Iraq. Both men are absolutely correct in their assertion that a withdrawal from Iraq will be seen as a defeat for the U.S. and will have terrible consequences for not only the people of Iraq, but the people in the entire region (and, eventually, the rest of the world). But, unfortunately, Dick Morris is also right when he analyzes the domestic political situation. If our troops are still fighting in Iraq in large numbers, without a withdrawal plan already on the table and in the process of being implemented, then the Democrats are going to win big. When they take power in January of 2009, the withdrawal process will begin shortly thereafter. So, our Hobson's choice is simple...begin withdrawing now, facing the consequences of our defeat, and have a chance at keeping the White House for the GOP, or wait and withdraw later, with all the negative consequences that entails, and face the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with substantially larger majorities in the Congress. I don't like it, but that is the way I see it. Want more evidence the American people are not equipped for these long, drawn out, seemingly inconclusive limited wars? Check out this story.