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Monday, February 04, 2008

"History Derailed" is the Boston Globe headline. Now, they will be known as the biggest chokers in sports history.

The race for President is tightening up on the Democratic side, while John McCain looks to wrap things up on the GOP side. Bob Novak explains the origins of this potential Democratic stalemate.

Dick Morris analyzes the race having looked at the most recent poll data.

I have also spent some time looking at the numbers. Here is what it looks like at this moment:

On the GOP side, McCain is ahead in the winner-take-all states of Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and New York. While I haven't found any polling data, I suspect that Utah will go for Romney. I have no data on Montana. In the proportional states, McCain is ahead in Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Tennessee (although that one is very close). Romney has a slight lead in the big state of California and a solid lead in his home state of Massachusetts. Huckabee should win his home state of Arkansas. I have no data on Alaska, North Dakota or West Virginia. All-in-all, a solid advantage to McCain.

On the Democratic side, with all the states splitting their delegates proportionally, Clinton should win Arkansas, Massachusetts, New York and Tennessee. Obama should win his home state of Illinois and Georgia. Clinton is ahead or slightly ahead in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico and Oklahoma. Obama is ahead or slightly ahead in New Mexico and Utah. It's a dead heat in Alabama, Colorado, Idaho and Missouri. I have no data for Delaware and North Dakota. Clinton has the slight advantage, but because of the way delegates are allocated, both candidates could come out roughly even in the delegate count by the end of the night on Tuesday.

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