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Friday, January 25, 2008

Some interesting trends in the polling as we approach the Democratic primary in South Carolina on Saturday and the primary for both parties in Florida on Tuesday.

In South Carolina, American Research Group shows Obama still ahead, with Clinton second, but John Edwards slowly gaining ground (Obama 45%, Clinton 36%, Edwards 12%). That finding is even more pronounced in the most recent Zogby poll (Obama 38%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 21%). Rasmussen has Obama 43%, Clinton 28% and Edwards 17%. It still looks like a solid Obama win, but Edwards may do better than expected. If Obama wins, will it help him gain ground in Florida, where he continues to trail Clinton?

On the GOP side in Florida, it looks like a fascinating race. It appears as if Huckabee is slipping, and Giuliani has been sliding for some time, so it is shaping up to be a McCain vs. Romney contest. ARG has McCain over Romney 31% to 26%, while Rasmussen has Romney up, 27% to 23% with Giuliani still in the mix at 20%.

Huckabee isn't quite through, yet. In Alabama, according to Rasmussen, Huckabee is tied with McCain at 27%, while Romney trails with 15%. Huckabee has a big lead in Georgia, again according to Rasmussen, with 34% to McCain's 19%.

So, what is going on? Simple. There is just not a unifying candidate in the GOP at this time. They all would like to be the guy, but none of them has, so far, been able to break through and make the case that they are the one to unify the party and win in November. Fortunately for the Republicans, the Democrats are engaged in a fight that is more about race and sex than it is about ideas, or even personalities. This could be far more harmful to them when they eventually have a nominee. For Republicans, the distasteful task of accommodating oneself to a candidate not of one's choosing is made easier if the disagreements were of a policy nature, or even a lack of comfort with a candidate's personality, as I believe is the case this year. If, on the other hand, the fight goes to the core of one's identity (which is the point of the very "identity politics" practiced by the Democrats), then it seems to me making an accommodation will be more difficult. Of course, only time will tell.

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