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Thursday, February 07, 2008

I was in NYC yesterday and was unable to post anything.

UPDATE....Mitt Romney has suspended his campaign. As I write this he is poised to make the announcement at the CPAC conference. Romney has many faults, but stupidity is not one of them. He can analyze the delegate math as well as anyone. If he wants a future in Republican politics, and he does, it makes sense to stop bashing the guy who will be the 2008 GOP nominee, get with the program and await his next opportunity (which will be 2012 if McCain loses in November, and might be 2012 anyway if McCain, due to age, decides to serve only one term).

UPDATE...Romney gave a terrific speech. If he had given more speeches like that one (or if he has and they were seen by more people) then he would have had more success. His campaign was plagued by several problems, including the fact that his authenticity was questioned (by people like me), he was unable to get the conservative wing of the party to back him earlier in the process (as many flirted with the idea of Fred Thompson, for instance), and he saw the evangelical vote split by the presence of Mike Huckabee in the race. In the end he was able to get most of the leading movement conservatives to back him, but too late to get enough of the rank-and-file to join up (especially with Huckabee drawing evangelicals and McCain getting national security hawks). It is clear that Romney is positioning himself to be next in line for the GOP nomination if McCain goes down to defeat in November.

My impressions of Super Tuesday? As I said on the air as we wrapped up our coverage on WBZ radio in Boston, I don't see anything to stand in the way of John McCain wrapping up the Republican nomination. Here is an analysis from the Boston Globe that explains why the math just doesn't work for Romney and Huckabee. For the Democrats, while he still trails Clinton in the delegate count (although the numbers have not yet been finalized), and while Clinton still has institutional support and a lead in Super Delegates, it's beginning to look more and more likely that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. Why? Well, here is a list of five reasons why Clinton should be worried. Her biggest problem is that as Obama has become more well known, he has become more well liked. As Clinton campaigns she has not been able to substantially change her image. She is well liked by most Democrats, but has not been able to improve her image with independents. She does well with women, but can't seem to improve with men. She does well with older voters, but is losing young voters in droves to Obama. She has done well, so far, with Hispanics, but it is possible that could change, while she has lost any chance of improving with African-Americans as the possibility that Obama could win this thing becomes more and more apparent. Because they are so close in delegates, and because of the system of proportional allocation in all the Democratic primaries and caucuses to come, they will both continue to win delegates and remain neck-and-neck as we approach the convention. But I will not be surprised if the momentum for Obama continues to grow and he eventually takes the lead in delegates to the point where Super Delegates begin to abandon Clinton to come over to Obama's camp. Therefore, I expect Obama to clinch the nomination before the convention.

Here is some more evidence that Obama is on the winning path, as he raises more and more money, while Clinton is forced to loan her campaign personal funds.

David Broder surveys some old political hands who agree that John McCain would be a formidable candidate in the Fall, despite the ideological divisions that, according to E. J. Dionne, continue to plague the GOP. Ironically, as the GOP moves closer to nominating McCain, some of the old hands in the Democratic Party are going to realize that they can have a powerful influence on whether or not the Republicans unite behind the Senator from Arizona. Nominate Hillary Clinton and watch as conservatives bury the hatchet to unite behind McCain in their effort to prevent her (and Bill) from returning to the White House. Nominate Obama and watch as conservatives sink into passivity.

1 Comments:

At 1:47 AM, Blogger Danny Vice said...

Conservatives are beginning to amaze me in their inability to see what's really at stake here.

This election is about more than McCain and his inability to follow conservative principals - although he has earned the angst of true conservatives.

But how is handing all three branches of our government over to far right liberals a suitable alternative to McCain?

There is a serious difference between McCain and a pure bread liberal who is bent on destroying ALL conservative values permanantly as well as our country with them.

Anti McCain commentators such as Rush Limbaugh have ventured the idea that perhaps we should sit this election out and let the Dems have a term in office, claiming it might pave the way for a future shot at a candidate he and others will like in four years.

Imagine the damage our country will endure if Democrats control all three branches of government for 4 to 8 years.

This would give liberals what they will regard as a clear sign from America that is it ready to move sharply to the left. Not slightly to the left. It will be a flamingly liberal mandate we can't play games with.

My daughters will come of age in the next 4 to 8 years, and I'd rather have 50% of McCains ear than 0% of a destruction bent liberal's ear.

Cherry picking our candidate is exactly what got us INTO this mess, and if conservatives aren’t careful, they may throw the entire country into a liberal spin that can take a decade(s) to pull back out of.

There is no such thing as a quick recovery from 4 years of liberalism unchecked. We may be facing what will take years and years of damage to undo. What’s more, there’s no guarantee that it WILL be undone. Have conservatives completely forgotten Roe v. Wade and other extremely important issues? We need some sort of conservative edge on every core issue we can get.

Questioning McCain was right and highly useful for a time and a season. Many of us wish we had acted sooner to support Romney or Huck....

But staying home on election day allows liberals a pass to capture all THREE branches of Government. Do you want your kids growing up in "Slick Willie" on steroids environment?

I'm not asking anyone to sacrifice their own belief or convictions, but we have a serious problem here, that we can't afford to fall asleep on.


Give it some thought, friends.

Danny Vice
http://weeklyvice.blogspot.com
http://thalunatic.blogspot.com

 

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