While Clinton and Obama battle over fund raising and the debate schedule, Peggy Noonan speculates on how Hillary will handle defeat. Noonan shares my belief that Obama has the momentum, and that Obama would be the tougher candidate for the GOP to beat, although there are some who believe that it is the Democrats who are in trouble. I do not. All the trends seem to be working in the Democrats favor.

First, the Iraq War is still unpopular. It is not as important an issue as it was six months ago, and the situation on the ground certainly looks a good deal better now than it did six months ago, but the fact remains that this war, just like Vietnam and Korea, after initially being viewed favorably, lost the bulk of the American people when it became clear that no traditional victory was possible. Americans don't like to participate in wars that drag on without any clear resolution in sight (although they don't like to surrender, either, which is why when we do withdraw it will be after we declare victory, real or not).

Second, Democratic turnout and enthusiasm is much higher than what we see in the GOP. Democrats like both candidates, and are determined to reject the Bush legacy. Republicans are divided and a bit dispirited.

Third, and most importantly, the economy seems to be headed into a downward cycle. Polls show that almost everyone believes the economy is getting worse. The mortgage crisis, which literally hits close to home for many people, is driving the bus, but there are other poor indicators as well, including the falling stock market. As the job numbers start to soften, which is already happening, and high energy and health care costs continue to take a toll, many Americans are looking for someone to blame. The party holding the White House is always a convenient scapegoat in such situations, and the GOP has the image of being the party of Big Business, and it seems that it is Big Business that is failing us at the moment, rather than Big Government.

Some Republicans now believe that we could be facing a repeat of 1974, a debacle for the GOP in the immediate aftermath of the Watergate scandal. I don't think it will be that bad, but the spate of resignations seems to indicate that the men who do politics for a living are betting on it being pretty bad.

All of this should create fertile ground for a third-party candidacy, but in the opinion of most experts at least, it seems that a Bloomberg run is less likely. I still think it is possible, but it does appear less likely as the weeks drag on.