U.S. SENATE ELECTION PREVIEW: THE REPUBLICANS

Now, let's look at the Republicans in the U.S. Senate. As I mentioned in my last post, the Republicans are defending 23 seats in November of 2008. Here they are:

Jeff Sessions - Alabama
Ted Stevens - Alaska
Saxby Chambliss - Georgia
Mitch McConnell - Kentucky
Pat Roberts - Kansas
Susan Collins - Maine
Roger Wicker - Mississippi
Thad Cochrane - Mississippi
Norm Coleman - Minnesota
John Sununu - New Hampshire
Elizabeth Dole - North Carolina
James Inhofe - Oklahoma
Gordon Smith - Oregon
Lindsey Graham - South Carolina
Lamar Alexander - Tennessee
John Cornyn - Texas
John Barrasso - Wyoming
Michael Enzi - Wyoming

There are 5 open seats due to retirements...Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico and Virginia.

Of these, in my estimation, nine are safe (Sessions, Chambliss, McConnell, Roberts, Cochrane, Inhofe, Graham, Barrasso and Enzi), three are probably safe (Dole, Alexander and the open seat in Nebraska) and eleven are vulnerable. Here are the eleven:

Ted Stevens - The long-time Alaska Senator is embroiled in a corruption scandal and has long been known as a practitioner of pork barrel politics ("the bridge to nowhere", anyone?). He has a primary opponent in wealthy real estate developer Dave Cuddy and, if he survives that challenge, will probably face Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. I think Stevens has hit the end of the road, so I call this one a loss.

Colorado - Vying for the seat left open by the retirement of Wayne Allard are former Congressman Bob Shaffer for the Republicans and Congressman Mark Udall for the Democrats. This one may depend as much upon what is happening at the top of the ticket as anything else. So, for the moment, I will count it as a loss.

Idaho - Larry Craig's forced retirement following his men's room scandal leaves the seat open for a battle between Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch and former Democratic congressman Larry LaRocco. Idaho is a reliable Republican state, so I expect the GOP to hold this one.

Maine - Incumbent Republican Susan Collins is facing the same problem all New England Republican elected officials are facing, especially those serving in national offices. New England is blue and getting bluer. As more voters pull the lever for Democrats on the national level, they are more likely to jettison their Republican lawmakers, as Rhode Island did with Chaffee and New Hampshire with Bradley and Bass. Collins is facing Democratic Congressman Tom Allen. If it's a bad night for the GOP at the top of the ticket, it will be a bad night for Collins. Call it a loss.

Mississippi - This should be a safe GOP seat, except for the fact that Trent Lott resigned (and is now embroiled in a scandal). Congressman Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the seat and will face off with either former Governor Ronnie Musgrove or former Congressman Ronnie Shows in the Fall. Still, despite some difficulties, I expect this one to hold for the GOP.

Minnesota - Senator Norm Coleman is not on solid ground in what has been a Progressive state in the past (remember Hubert Humphrey?). But it looks like his opponent will be comedian Al Franken. Normally, I would say that would mean a hold for the GOP, but it could be a loss, as Minnesota has been known to go in funny directions when it comes to politics. For now, I'll call it a hold.

New Hampshire - Like the other New England states, New Hampshire is becoming more Democratic, as voters are more Liberal on social issues and foreign policy. The GOP has lost control of the State House and both Congressional seats. Senator John Sununu has a great name and a great reputation, but he is facing former Governor Jeanne Shaheen who only lost to Sununu six years ago by a narrow margin. I call this one a loss.

New Mexico - The retirement of long-time Senator Pete Domenici leaves the seat open. Congressman Tom Udall is the apparent Democratic nominee, while Republican Congressman Steve Pearce and Congresswoman Heather Wilson will compete for the GOP nod. New Mexico is a swing state with very narrow margins in the last two national elections. But, since the signs look good for the Democrats, I call this one a GOP loss.

Oregon - Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith will face State House Speaker Jeff Merkley. While Oregon is a fairly Liberal state and can be expected to go for the Democrats on the Presidential level, for the moment I will call it a hold.

Texas - Incumbent Senator John Cornyn should be a safe bet, but the demographics of Texas, like a lot of other places, continue to change with the on-going expansion of the Hispanic community and the influx of Katrina refugees, most of whom are African-American. Cornyn will likely face State Representative Rick Noriega. This could be a tough one but, for now, I am calling it a hold.

Virginia - Another state with changing demographics, as the more Liberal Washington-area suburbs continue to grow. The retirement of Senator John Warner opens up the seat. Last time around the Democrats were able to win one of the two seats with Jim Webb's victory, and they won the Governor's office in 2005. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner will likely face former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore. I expect Virginia to replace a Warner with a Warner (although the two are not related). Call this one a GOP loss.

So, the bottom line? At this early date I believe the GOP will lose six of their seats. Yesterday, I predicted that the Democrats will hold all of their 12 contested seats, so I expect a net loss of six for the GOP, for a new Senate of 55 Democrats, 43 Republicans and two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Of course, as the months pass, I will re-examine these races as new data becomes available and as we get a better handle on how the national race is going. If, for instance, McCain appears to run stronger or Obama weaker than expected, of if Hillary pulls out the nomination instead of Obama, all this analysis will have to change. Stay tuned.