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Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Well, I'm back from New York City and pondering what happened yesterday. As I thought, Obama won with over 52% of the popular vote and over 300 electoral votes.

At the moment he stands at 349 electoral votes, with only Missouri and North Carolina still outstanding. Obama is ahead in North Carolina and McCain is ahead in Missouri. If it stays that way, it will end with Obama earning 364 electoral votes.

In the Senate, the Democrats have gained 5 seats, but could win as many as 8, since the races in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia are still undecided. In Alaska, Senator Ted Stevens, despite his felony convictions, is ahead by a small margin. There are still thousands of absentee ballots to count, so the race is not over. It may be several days before a winner is declared. If Stevens wins, he still needs to get his convictions overturned on appeal, or he might be expelled from the Senate. It would still be a GOP hold under that scenario, as Governor Sarah Palin would pick his replacement. In Oregon, there are still a lot of votes to be counted, and Democrat Jeff Merkley has now taken a very slim lead. I expect this to be a Democratic gain. In Minnesota, it can't get any closer and that means a recount, with Coleman hanging on by his fingernails. It beats me how it will turn out, but just for laughs I'll call it a GOP hold. Finally, in Georgia Saxby Chambliss will probably face a runoff because he didn't get to 50 %. He should win that battle. If that is the case, then the total Democratic gain for the election will be 6 seats. Will Joe Lieberman still caucus with the Democrats? Will they let him? When those questions are answered, we'll know the numbers. The bottom line is that the Democrats do not have a filibuster-proof majority.

In the House, the Democrats are currently up 20 seats with a chance to gain a few more, but not as big a debacle as I had feared.

History was made. The Republican Party is in disarray, the future is unknown. I'll have more on that tomorrow.

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