THOUGHTS ON THE NH ELECTION

Update...at 1:25 PM the AP still has Ayotte leading Lamontagne, 48,590 to 47,406 with 272 0f 301 precincts reporting. What a race. If the campaign had gone on for one or two more days, Lamontagne would have won.

What a night for political junkies!

In the hotly contested GOP primary for U.S. Senate as I write this at 7:49 AM, the Associated Press reports that with 85% of precincts reporting Kelly Ayotte is leading Ovide Lamontagne by just under 1,000 votes out of almost 120,000 votes cast. Quickly scanning the town-by-town results, I can clearly see that any traditional liberal vs. conservative, RINO vs. "real" Republican, "Establishment vs. "Tea Party" analysis fails to explain the results. Ayotte was endorsed by Sarah Palin, after all, while Lamontagne seemed to appeal more to folks who considered themselves part of the Tea Party movement than Ayotte, despite the Palin endorsement. How will it turn out? Again, looking at the towns that have not reported, it would seem that Lamontagne would do better in some of the smaller, more conservative towns of the North Country, but Dover has not reported, and that larger Seacoast community would seem likely to be evenly split, or advantage Ayotte. Where will Lamontagne get the votes to make up the gap? I just don't see it.

For Governor, it will be incumbent Democrat John Lynch going against John Stephen (which just about everyone predicted would be the case).

In CD-1, Frank Giunta will be the GOP nominee and take on incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. In CD-2, former Congressman Charlie Bass is the GOP nominee and will go against Democrat Ann McLane Kuster. Here are the results for both districts.

For Governor, I expect Lynch to have an early lead in the polls over Stephen, but if Stephen can run an effective campaign, especially with good TV and other media exposure to improve his name recognition with independent voters, he may be able to make some headway. Still, Lynch has been the Teflon governor so far, so don't expect miracles, unless the GOP wave hits New Hampshire hard.

In CD-1, Shea-Porter may be just the kind of Democrat who is most vulnerable in this election. More liberal in her views than the majority of the district (albeit a district that has become more liberal over the last ten years or so), if independents move heavily toward the GOP she could go down.

In CD-2, Bass has the edge over Kuster, even though it is a more liberal district than CD-1, if independents break for the GOP.

Same story for the Senate race, whether it is Ayotte vs. Hodes or Lamontagne vs. Hodes. It is all about how the independents break. Looking at the most recent registration numbers for New Hampshire, independent or undeclared voters number 388,589, Democrats 266,114 and Republicans 264,451. If those independent voters break heavily for the GOP, they could sweep away the Democrats in much the same way the Democrats swept the Republicans in 2006.