A new American Research Group poll of likely voters shows Governor John Lynch (D) leading John Stephen (R) by ten points, 51% to 41% here in New Hampshire. It also shows Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Paul Hodes (D) 47% to 42%.

Meanwhile, according to this story from the Union Leader, UNH Survey Center director Andy Smith is predicting that the Republicans will win back control of the New Hampshire House, and might win the Senate as well. He also predicts that Governor Lynch will be re-elected, while Ayotte will win the U.S. Senate seat, and that the GOP will pick up at least one of the two congressional seats, probably the 1st District. Nationally, he believes the GOP will pick up between 35 and 90 seats in the U.S. House, but fail to win the Senate.

FYI, the current political make-up of the New Hampshire legislature is as follows:

House - 216 Democrats, 174 Republicans, 10 vacant seats (our 400 member House is the third largest parliamentary body in the world).

Senate - 14 Democrats, 10 Republicans.

In Massachusetts, the race for Governor is getting more interesting as the independent campaign of State Treasurer Tim Cahill has filed a lawsuit against some former staffers claiming they conspired to funnel information from their campaign to that of Republican Charlie Baker while they were still in Cahill's employ. Here is the story from The Boston Globe, and an analysis from the same source. My analysis? There is no logical reason why Republican operatives (which is who these people are) would join an independent campaign for Governor, unless they believed such a campaign would hurt the Democratic incumbent (Cahill was also a Democrat before he made the switch to independent status in order to undertake the run). Upon the realization that Cahill's campaign was actually more of a hindrance to Baker than to Deval Patrick, they looked for ways to undermine the campaign. So, who will this help? On the surface, it looks like it should help Patrick, which is the essence of the Globe's analysis. My gut tells me that it will not have much of an impact, but what impact there is probably makes people even angrier about politics as usual, which should hurt incumbents more than challengers.

A new CBS News poll examines the Tea Party movement, and shows more bad news for the Democrats.

Finally a poll with good news for the Democrats, at least in New York.

Is polling evidence that shows some Democratic resurgence really just a "dead cat bounce"?

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie kills a new rail tunnel project, citing cost overruns. Paul Krugman says this is exactly the wrong thing to do.

Karl Rove says desperate Democrats are resorting to personal attacks and smear campaigns.

Stu Rothenberg says the fundamentals still show big GOP gains.