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Friday, November 05, 2010

One of the most significant consequences of the election on Tuesday was the historic gain by the GOP of state legislative seats. The Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures across the country, which is a modern record. The GOP now has unified control of 26 state legislatures. These legislatures will be responsible for redistricting based on the 2010 census numbers. That will help Republicans keep control of the House for years to come.

Here is how liberal columnist Harold Meyerson analyzes the election results. Here is how conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer views the same results.

Jonathan Chait tells Democrats they ought to cheer up, things will improve. He is right, of course. The Democrats still did very well with the youth vote, African-Americans, Hispanics, people with college degrees (especially advanced degrees), and white people in union households. But the youth vote didn't turn out much (as I expected), and the Democrats lost heavily with white, working and middle class voters.

This leads to Ron Brownstein's piece about how the Democrats lost the heartland.

So, what is the bottom line? In 2012, we can expect a much larger turnout by young voters, which will help the Democrats. But, if the President is still unpopular, especially with white, middle and working class voters, he will have a hard time getting the electoral votes necessary to win, as the map will revert to the 2004 election with the President winning the Northeast and the Pacific coast, but losing most of the rest.

In an effort to jump start the economy, the Federal Reserve is buying $600 billion worth of long-term Treasury notes. This is a way to add liquidity to the market, infusing money into the system without actually printing more, thus lowering interest rates and driving down the value of the dollar. Theoretically, this will provide an incentive for more business investment, more home and car buying, and provide some forward momentum for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately, the effort is provoking an international backlash. The Chinese are being especially critical. Could we be seeing the beginning of the kind of international economic warfare that happened in the early 1930s and led to making the Great Depression even more severe and protracted? Worse, could we see those negative results without any positive ones?

2 Comments:

At 8:42 AM, Anonymous DCE said...

Dan, one thing me media missed (and that we musn't forget) is that over 100 of the state legislative seats that flipped to the GOP were in New Hampshire.

 
At 6:30 AM, Anonymous Dan Pierce said...

Correct. I should have pointed that out parenthetically in the post. Still, a record setting achievement.

 

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