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Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Dick Morris believes that the GOP will lose the House, and probably the Senate as well. He thinks that the Democrats are fired up and will turn out in droves, while the Republicans, including Evangelicals, are dispirited and will not show up.

Charlie Cook has a breakdown of the situation, which he believes will fall into the same category as the 1994 and 1974 elections.

David Ignatius has some thoughts about what the American people want from politics. He thinks they want practical problem-solving, which is probably right. Bruce Bartlett says Republicans should not worry about the consequences of a Democratic take-over, as they will make all sorts of plans, but will succeed in accomplishing very little, running into the same wall the Gingrich revolutionaries ran into in 1995.

As for myself, I will certainly go out and vote as I always do. I will vote for Jeb Bradley (R-NH) in my district, and I think he will win re-election. But, I know that I am a political junkie and a hard-core, rock-ribbed Republican. This election will not be decided by people like me. It will be decided by the people who pay only a modest amount of attention to the political scene, and who have been known to miss an election or two. Their behavior and political inclinations at this time will, as happens in every election, determine the outcome. Right now, if you believe the polls, that means a big advantage for the Democrats. The only hope the GOP has is that the pollsters are getting less accurate over time and, therefore, have either missed the real trends or are over-stating the trends that are out there.

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