INDEPENDENTS MAKE THE DIFFERENCE

With ten months (approximately) to go before our first-in-the-nation (approximately) primary, I thought it was time once again to stick my finger in the air and see which way the political wind is blowing here in the Granite State, and to give my thoughts on the way things might go this time around. I saw the other day that the 2000 NH Republican primary winner, Senator John McCain of Arizona, has revived his "Straight Talk Express", even hiring a snow plow to keep him going during our last storm. How well I remember that 2000 campaign. At this point back then, George W. Bush was beginning to build an air of inevitability. It seemed that Republicans, who almost always choose the next in line in an orderly fashion during their presidential nominating process, had decided that, since there was no obvious next in line following Bob Dole's defeat in 1996, that the man with the right name and pedigree would do. Of course, voters here in New Hampshire decided to throw a monkey wrench into that machinery, just as they had done to Dole four years before. John McCain rode a wave of discontent with the status quo into victory lane here in New Hampshire. But, was it discontent with the status quo, or something else?

It seems to me that John McCain, with a great deal of help from a sympathetic media (who love outsider and underdog stories), managed to capture the imagination of that mass of undeclared voters who, every four years, parachute into the primary of one or the other major parties. Decidedly uninspired by the Democrat front runner (Al Gore) and challenger (Bill Bradley), they chose to move en masse into the GOP primary, where they racked up an impressive vote total, and a victory, for McCain. So, will that pattern happen again?

This time, McCain is the establishment candidate. He is next in line. He has spent eight years re-building his ties to the mainstream of the GOP, and has especially embraced the President in fighting the war on terror and the Iraq War. While Conservative operatives and activists still don't trust him, he has come, I think, to represent the thinking of the majority of the party on the most important issue facing America which is, of course, the war. This is why he is still the smart bet when looking at who will be the eventual nominee, even though he trails in most of the polls right now to former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani. So, if we accept that as out premise, is there an outsider who can upend him in our primary?

Giuliani would seem to be the choice for that role. He is certainly outside the mainstream of Republican ideology. He is Pro-Choice, pro-gay rights, and for gun control. He should expect to get quite a bit of positive coverage by the mainstream media. But, for him to pose a real challenge to McCain here in New Hampshire, he will need the unenrolled voters to enter the GOP primary and vote for him the way they did for McCain in 2000. I just don't think that will happen.

The reason? Senator Barack Obama. I strongly suspect that Senator Obama is going to be the darling of the media in this cycle. His battle with Hillary Clinton is going to be the "outsider versus establishment" fight that will be eaten up by the press. If that is the case, then we can expect the bulk of those unenrolled voters to come into the Democratic primary and vote for Obama. This may very well lead to his upset victory over Senator Clinton, but it will almost certainly mean that Conservatives will dominate the New Hampshire primary. Ironically, that bodes very well for McCain if it turns into a McCain vs. Giuliani contest.

Of course, there's the rub. If Conservatives dominate the contest, then any number of other candidates might catch fire and eclipse both McCain and Giuliani. It could be Romney, or Gingrich, or even a Thompson (Fred or Tommy). I think all the other candidates know this, which is why our primary will be even more powerful than it has ever been. Every Republican candidate is going to try mightily to be the alternative to McCain and Giuliani, and they all know that if they can post a good showing (especially an outright victory) in New Hampshire, they can knock one of those two out and make it a two man race to the finish (which will happen very quickly, what with the front-loading of so many big primaries).

So, that's my take, with lots of time still to go. As Betty Davis once said, "Fasten your seatbelts, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride".