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Monday, January 07, 2008

Here is the RealClearPolitics summary of the latest New Hampshire polls. The bottom line? Obama continues to break away from Clinton on the Democratic side and McCain continues to create more separation from Romney on the GOP side, with Huckabee now solidly in third place.

For the Democrats, I think the Clinton people are going to have to accept defeat, and work on a strategy to re-tool their campaign for the next 30 days, with an eye to Florida on the 29th and all the states on Super Tuesday. Because she already has so many super delegates, she has an advantage over Obama in the delegate count. That means she can survive some defeats. But she has to start winning somewhere, or else she will be written off by the establishment, who will then throw in with Obama.

Update...Matt Drudge is reporting that some inside the Hillary Clinton camp are already debating on whether or not she should drop out of the race, as she is now facing a double-digit deficit in New Hampshire and a potential for embarrassing defeats here, followed by South Carolina.

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?! "She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out." "Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.

Wow. Read the whole thing.

For the Republicans, it is looking increasingly possible that we could go all the way to the convention without a clear winner. New Hampshire could see a McCain win by a few points over Romney, and Huckabee doing better than expected while sliding into third place. If Huckabee overtakes Romney, he is done, but I don't expect that to happen. Then we could see the following scenario for the GOP (everything after Iowa and Wyoming, of course, is just speculation on my part)...

Iowa (1/3) - Huckabee wins, Romney second.

Wyoming (1/5) - Romney wins, Thompson second.

NH (1/8) - McCain wins, Romney second.

Michigan (1/15) - Romney wins, McCain second.

Nevada (1/19) - Romney wins, McCain second.

South Carolina (1/19) - Huckabee wins, McCain second.

Florida (1/29) - Giuliani wins, McCain second.

Maine (2/1) - McCain wins, Huckabee second.

Then we hit Super Tuesday on the 5th with events in 22 states and American Samoa and no clear front runner. Brokered convention, anyone?

Bill Kristol writes about Mike Huckabee in his first op-ed for the NY Times.

In New Hampshire, McCain is finding that old magic, while Bill Clinton is not.

Bob Novak writes that Hillary and Mitt are running into a head wind.

By the way, just as I was last night, I will be on WBZ-AM in Boston with Dan Rea starting at 8 PM tonight as we broadcast live from the Radisson Hotel in Manchester (formerly the Center of NH).

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