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Saturday, February 09, 2008

UPDATE...Mike Huckabee is the winner of the GOP caucuses in Kansas. He won overwhelmingly, so much so that he got not only the 27 statewide at-large delegate but also the delegates from all the congressional districts, for a total of 36 delegates. As has been so often the case so far, my prediction of a McCain win in Kansas wasn't worth the energy expended to make it. No more state-by-state predictions for me (although I'll maintain my prediction of McCain as the GOP nominee and Obama beating Clinton for the Democratic nomination).

UPDATE...Barack Obama wins the Nebraska caucuses and is projected to win the caucuces in Washington State. In both cases, it looks like he has won a substantial victory, which means he will pull more delegates out of each contest.

UPDATE...Obama wins in Louisiana, as expected. So it is an Obama sweep. Still waiting on the GOP results in Louisiana and Washington, but Huckabee leads in Louisiana by a decent margin, and is leading in Washington by a small margin as I write this at 10:35 PM. It will be hard for the Clinton people to spin these results, and the momentum clearly remains with Obama. If he can sweep Maryland, Virginia and D.C. on Tuesday, especially if he can win by good margins, then it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that Clinton is the better hope for the Democrats in November.

Here is a brief description of today's contests. On the Democratic side:

Louisiana - 56 delegates at stake in a primary, allocated proportionally. 37 of those delegates will be allocated on a district-by-district basis, and another 19 based on the statewide vote. Louisiana has an additional 10 super delegates who are officially unpledged. I haven't seen any polling data, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama should do well, as he has done in some of the other Southern states.

Nebraska - 16 delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the results of a statewide caucus. 8 more will be allocated at a state convention in June and Nebraska has 7 more super delegates. Obama has done well in all the caucus states.

Washington - A confusing, multi-tier system starts today with the election of delegates to county conventions. In the end, delegates will eventually be elected to a state convention that will chose delegates to the national convention.

U.S. Virgin Islands - A convention is held today to choose 9 delegates. Three super delegates are officially unpledged.

This should be a good day for Obama, as he has strength in the South and he has shown organizational strength in caucus states. Dick Morris, looking ahead, sees the road to Obama's eventual nomination.

For the GOP:

Louisiana - 20 delegates are available in this primary. If a candidate wins 50% of the vote or more, he gets all 20. If not, the 20 remain unpledged until the state convention next Saturday, at which time the convention can choose to pledge those delegates.

Kansas - Caucuses will allocate 36 delegates. The rather complex rules could allow one candidate to get 27 of those delegates, so it's almost, but not quite, winner-take-all.

Washington - Precinct caucuses will choose 18 officially unpledged delegates. 19 more will be allocated in a primary on February 19.

Not a big day for the GOP race, but the math looks prohibitively difficult for Huckabee going forward (even with the win in Kansas). Of course, his campaign managers still see a path to victory.

Meanwhile, a group of conservative leaders met with Mitt Romney immediately after he dropped out of the Republican race. At least some of them want Romney to become the new face of the movement, possibly positioning himsef to be the GOP nominee in 2012.

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