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Monday, March 10, 2008

Tomorrow, the voters go to the polls in Mississippi, where the Democrats have 33 delegates at stake, 22 awarded proportionally by Congressional district and 11 proportionally statewide. This American Research Group poll shows Obama ahead, 58%-34%.

On Saturday in Wyoming, Obama won a caucus 61%-38%.

In another bad sign for the GOP, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois was won by a Democrat in a special election on Saturday. The district was considered reliably Republican, but that might not matter this year.

Bill Kristol outlines McCain's daunting task as he faces a year, that as the previous story indicates, should be a good one for the Democrats.

Dick Morris says, despite having won three states last Tuesday, the race is still over and Hillary is still the loser. The problem for the Democrats is that, to use Andrew Sullivan's analogy, the Clintons are like the zombies in a horror movie, they are never really dead. Here is another analysis on the three ways Hillary could still win the nomination.

The bottom line? Unless conditions radically improve for the GOP between now and November (and it looks as if it may even get worse, rather than better, for the Republicans), the only way for John McCain to win the election is for Hillary Clinton to steal the nomination away from Obama, find herself unable to convince him to join her on the ticket and, thus, alienate all those African-Americans, young voters, and upscale Whites who supported him in this process. Those folks don't have to turn around and vote for McCain for him to win (although some will out of spite, and others because they find McCain an acceptable alternative), they just have to sit it out. Still, it seems to me implausible that the Democratic superdelegates will fail to see the obvious consequences of awarding the nomination to someone who failed to win a plurality of actual votes and pledged, elected delegates. Of course, they are Democrats, which means, in the words of Will Rogers, they don't belong to any organized political party.

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