John McCain has made his decision on a running mate, and speculation is rampant as to who it might be, with reports that Pawlenty and Romney are out of the running. It looks like it might be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Here is some background on her from Fred Barnes. I'll post my thoughts on the matter once we know one way or the other.

Well, it is Gov. Sarah Palin. I just watched her speech and, like everyone else, I am scrambling to find out more about her. The editors at National Review like the pick, as does Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics. Ramesh Ponnuru has his doubts. As for me, it's clear that McCain decided to make a splash with a bold pick. Now, no matter which ticket wins, history will be made. We'll either have the first African-American President or the first female Vice-President. But it is also clear that this pick was designed to go after one group of people first and foremost...disaffected female Hillary Clinton supporters. Generally speaking, polling data shows women aged 35 to 50 aren't breaking for Obama in the numbers one would expect, and there is anecdotal evidence to indicate that some women within that demographic (as well as outside it) are unhappy at they way they believe Hillary was treated during the process. Some even believe she was robbed of the nomination. McCain is going right after them by, in essence, saying that they can help break that glass ceiling (and it was clever of Palin to lift that reference directly from Mrs. Obama's speech during her own speech today) by voting for him. It is a gamble, as her inexperience could negate GOP attacks on Obama's own lack of experience, but the Democrats, in seeking ways to attack Palin, may find themselves throwing salt into the still-raw wounds of those women who think Hillary should be the Democratic nominee. I liked the initial introduction. Let's see how she fares on the trail.

Barack Obama's speech last night was certainly historic, and I thought it was well delivered and fairly well crafted, although it lacked some of the soaring rhetoric of past speeches. In the end, while the speech certainly helped among those who are already on board with his candidacy, I do not think it made much difference among the undecided. That will happen when the two men are paired against one another at the debates and on the trail. In the end, as undecided voters head into the last few days before the election, it will be a decision made on many levels but, at it's core, it will be a decision about who would be the better man to sit in the Oval Office during this time of war and economic uncertainty. For each voter that process is based on different life experiences and prejudices. It is generally not a slam dunk, which is why so many of these contests are fairly close in the popular vote (even when the Electoral vote is one-sided).

Dick Morris thinks the Democrats are making a mistake by trying to tie McCain to George W. Bush.

Meanwhile, Gustav swamps Jamaica and heads out into open water, with the U.S. Gulf Coast in it's cross hairs. This has led GOP officials to begin discussions on a possible delayed opening for the Republican National Convention. The last thing the GOP needs is for Americans to be riveted to their TV sets watching New Orleans getting pounded by a hurricane while Republicans are partying in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

As Arctic sea ice retreats to it's second smallest level since they began measuring the stuff, here is an opinion piece that declares we have only seven years left to save humanity. If these guys are right, then we are doomed for sure.

Michael Totten, reporting from Tblisi, gets a briefing as to what really is happening in Georgia. Totten gets the briefing from someone affiliated with the Georgian government, but is joined by an independent expert on the region in order to fact-check the briefer. It makes compelling reading.

Meanwhile, the Russians consolidate their gains by recognizing the independence of the two regions in question.

The Governor of Michigan starts a process for the removal of the Mayor of Detroit.

No Biden bounce for Obama.

A new report on population growth and decline in Europe finds the UK in better shape than Germany.

Dick Armey sees the Four Horsemen of the economic apocalypse on the horizon, while Robert J. Samuelson sees two political campaigns engaged in competing fantasies about Federal taxation and spending policies.

There really are conservatives in Hollywood, and Stephen Hayes managed to talk to a few of them.

Jeff Jacoby found reason for investors to celebrate when Congress is not in session.

Tensions on the rise at MSNBC.

The Taliban growing in strength and confidence in Kandahar.

The Democratic Vice-Presidential nominees for the last two elections are absent from the convention in Denver, and are not missed.

Lots of things happening as the Obama people try to manage the Clintons prior to their speaking slots at the convention, with tensions on the rise.

Joe Lieberman's revenge.

Signs of political maturity in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq, while negotiations continue on a Status of Forces Agreement, the Prime Minister now wants to set a firm date for U.S. troop withdrawals. Politically, he needs to be seen as taking a tough line. As a practical matter, the wording of the agreement can be such that it will seem like all U.S. combat troops will be gone by a date certain, but their presence will be maintained through the re-classification of combat troops as "advisers" or "trainers" or the like. They'll work it out. In Afghanistan, government officials now want a Status of Forces Agreement for their country in the wake of several incidents of civilian deaths caused by NATO air strikes. Again, it can be worked out, as long as the people running the Afghan government realize that putting too many restrictions on NATO forces will lead to their own demise at the hands of the Taliban.

Of course, the problem in Afghanistan is that the Taliban has a safe haven in Pakistan, and the government of that country is in disarray.

As the Democrats open their national convention in Denver today, James Carroll writes about breaking the cord with the Clintons.

Amir Taheri believes Joe Biden represents a return to the policies of Jimmy Carter.

Bill Kristol thinks that McCain should respond to the Biden choice by choosing Joe Lieberman as his running mate. I can think of nothing that would so alienate conservatives as that choice, which would cause terrible disruptions at the GOP convention, and would convince many conservatives (who don't care much for McCain, anyway) to sit this one out, hopeful that a disastrous four years of President Obama would put them in a position to repeat the 1980 experience (although I haven't a clue who they think would reprise the role of Reagan).

Some African-Americans wonder if an Obama victory would actually prove harmful to the furtherance of their political, economic and social goals. Interestingly, I think they have a point. If a Black man can become President of the United States, doesn't that mean that we have reached the finish line? Can't we now dispense with Affirmative Action and other discriminatory policies, since Black kids can now dream of growing up to be President?

Apparently, some Hillary supporters still believe she can win the nomination for President, even if she isn't being considered for the Vice-Presidential spot on the ticket. Meanwhile, Barack Obama says he has made his pick, and it will be revealed soon.

New Hampshire has the lowest birthrate in the nation. Our neighbors here in the Northeast are in the same boat. If the trend continues, unless offset by immigration, this region will become even less attractive for businesses as finding a workforce will become more difficult.

Here is one man's opinion on why we are losing in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Taliban strikes hard at Pakistan.

The Shiite-dominated Iraqi government continues to consolidate it's control over the country. First, they took Basra, then they gained control over Sadr City (and diminished the influence of Moqtada al Sadr), now they are trying to decapitate the organizations that comprised the Sunni Awakening. When they finally get a Status of Forces Agreement with the U.S. that relinquishes U.S. control they will have achieved full sovereignty over most of the country (though they still have yet to challenge the Kurds in the North).

Peggy Noonan believes John McCain is now in position to win.

Charles Krauthammer thinks NATO is showing its weakness due to its supine response to the Russian aggression in Georgia.

Iraqi and U.S. negotiators are getting closer to a Status of Forces Agreement. The latest draft would pull American troops out of Iraqi cities by June 30 of next year.

Michael J. Totten is in Tblisi and has this piece about Georgian refugees who fled to "the American side", at least as it is characterized by their Russian tormentors.

A new study says polygamy is the key to a longer lifespan for men.

Here is a piece that argues we need not worry about any realistic disruption of the global oil supply.

David Broder was in New Hampshire interviewing folks about their attitudes toward the Presidential race, and he wrote this column about it.

A new national poll shows John McCain has now taken a five point lead over Barack Obama. Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics Electoral Map that puts toss-up states into one camp or the other based on how it is currently leaning, and McCain is winning. Last night on WBZ I talked to a number of Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic who assured me they would not vote for Obama if he did not pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Is it possible that the Democrats could lose this race? That great sage Michael Moore says he thinks they can, and he knows how they will do it.

Jeff Jacoby says the story about the end of white majority status here in the United States is wrong.

The National Enquirer has more salacious stuff about the John Edwards affair. If they were right about the initial story, maybe they are right about the follow-up.

Ralph Peters slams the "peace at any price" crowd. Thomas Friedman says we should have anticipated the Russian moves.

Meanwhile, the Taliban have stepped up their campaign to destabilize Afghanistan and drive the infidels out. The Taliban cannot win if we maintain our resolve to help the Afghan people who wish to enter the modern era, rather than return to barbarism. That means American troops (and French, British, Canadian and others) staying in the country as long as it takes.

Barack Obama's youngest half-brother is found living in a shack in Kenya.

Is the Russian action against Georgia encouraging the Chinese to take a harder look at a military solution to the Taiwan controversy? Perhaps, at least according to this piece in The Weekly Standard. In The Washington Post, columnist Robert Samuelson explains what he believes to be the real threat from China.

I will be filling-in for Dan Rea on "Nightside" on WBZ-AM 1030 in Boston this evening from 8 PM to Midnight. Among the topics I am considering for discussion:

Who should Barack Obama choose as a running mate? Who should John McCain choose? Will it make a difference to you when voting this November who is number two on the ticket?

Is gun control the answer to the street violence afflicting Boston and other American cities? In Boston, 2 boys are shot while sitting on a porch, and a pro-gun control group is set to reveal another provocative billboard.

What is the most important issue facing the country today, and who would be better able to deal with that problem in the White House, Obama or McCain?

Should American oil companies, already pumping less oil due to their being shut out from supplies in places like Russia, Iran and Venezuela, be allowed to drill for more oil here in the United States, and off our shores?

Other news items of interest:

David Gergen thinks the McCain campaign is operating with a great deal more effectiveness.

The head of the Knights of Columbus hopes that American Catholics will hold politicians accountable for their pro-abortion views.

In The Boston Globe, city councilors are awarding big bonuses to staff members, and a local doctor appears to be the choice for firefighters looking for a disability check.

In The New York Times, Russia seems to be hunkering down in Georgia, and Musharraf's exit from the Pakistani scene leaves much uncertainty in his wake.

Amity Shlaes says there are five ways to wreck an economic recovery and, unfortunately, the Democrats seem to be looking favorably on some of them.

President Musharraf of Pakistan, facing impeachment, resigns from office. I hope this is good news for democracy in Pakistan, but I suspect it is not. My guess is that this will either propel Pakistan into more unrest, resulting in another Army-led coup, or lead to more political power for the Islamists (which might result in an Army-led coup, anyway).

Russia tightens it's grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Strategypage reveals some details on how the Russian military performed during the fighting.

Bill Kristol says McCain outperformed Obama at Saddleback.

Meanwhile, the polls show the race continues to be very tight. The latest RealClearPolitics Electoral Map shows just how tight. Expect an Obama bounce next week during and immediately after the Democratic convention. But, I suspect the bounce will be short-lived.

Russia controls a third of Georgia, according to Georgia's President. Meanwhile, the Poles, sensing a frightening message in all that has transpired in recent weeks, finally decide a U.S. missile shield is a good idea.

Michael Ledeen wonders when we will realize that Russia is part of the war being waged against us and the West. Gerard Baker has the answer, which is never, because the West is governed by cowardice and defeatism. That is why I believe that the military steps delineated in this piece, which would certainly make things difficult for the Russians, will not happen. Winning wars is as much about political will as it is about anything else, and the peoples of the West have slowly been losing their will to fight over the last few decades. Fortunately for most of them, the Americans have been lagging behind in this process, although it is beginning to have an impact even here. But, I fear, the day will come when Americans get tired of being the world's policeman, and will withdraw, leaving the field to those who combine wealth, military power, and a brutal purpose.

President Musharraf of Pakistan may be about to step down.

The press has got the Presidential race here in the U.S. totally wrong, at least according to one observer.

Could the aviation industry as we know it be on the way out?

Victor Davis Hanson sums it all up in one sentence...the strong do what they will, and the weak suffer as they must.

Ralph Peters praises the evil genius of Czar Vladimir the Great.

President Bush makes demands of the Russians, while the agreement they signed with the Georgians appears to give the Russians a lot of leeway to do what they will.

Charles Krauthammer has a plan to thwart the Russians.

You may have read in the morning papers that Russian and Georgian leaders had agreed on a cease-fire, with the Russian President indicating that the Georgians had been punished enough for their provocations. Well, this story indicates that the Russians may still be on the move.

Jeff Jacoby says we're back in the USSR. Either that, or we are once again playing "The Great Game" for control of the resources of Central Asia. At least one British columnist thinks that the Russians are headed for a fall. Harold Meyerson links the Russian invasion of Georgia and the Chinese Olympic opening ceremonies.

This story, about cyberattacks against Georgian websites in the weeks prior to the opening of hostilities, is interesting. If these attacks were directed by Russians, it is powerful evidence that this whole thing was planned long ago.

In other news, Obama continues to have a problem with white males, and both Obama and McCain continue to have a problem dealing with the reality of our energy situation.

BACK TO REALITY

Apparently, the Russians have halted their advance into Georgia. Trust, but verify.

The halt, if it turns out to be true, comes only after the Russians made significant gains, not only taking control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but also putting it's military into Georgia itself and, by some accounts, cutting the country in half.

Some realism now, from the best columnists in that department.

George Will, giving us some insight into how this crisis might play out on the domestic political front....

On ABC's "This Week," (New Mexico Governor Bill) Richardson, auditioning to be Barack Obama's running mate, disqualified himself. Clinging to the Obama campaign's talking points like a drunk to a lamppost, Richardson said that this crisis proves the wisdom of Obama's zest for diplomacy and that America should get the U.N. Security Council "to pass a strong resolution getting the Russians to show some restraint." Apparently Richardson was ambassador to the United Nations for 19 months without noticing that Russia has a Security Council veto.

This crisis illustrates, redundantly, the paralysis of the United Nations regarding major powers, hence regarding major events, and the fictitiousness of the European Union regarding foreign policy. Does this disturb Obama's serenity about the efficacy of diplomacy? Obama's second statement about the crisis, in which he tardily acknowledged Russia's invasion, underscored the folly of his first, which echoed the Bush administration's initial evenhandedness. "Now," said Obama, "is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint."

John McCain, the "life is real, life is earnest" candidate, says he has looked into Putin's eyes and seen "a K, a G and a B." But McCain owes the thug thanks, as does America's electorate. Putin has abruptly pulled the presidential campaign up from preoccupation with plumbing the shallows of John Edwards and wondering what "catharsis" is "owed" to disappointed Clintonites.

Victor Davis Hanson, on the alternative to "soft power" and "hard power"...

We talk endlessly about “soft” and “hard” power as if humanitarian jawboning, energized by economic incentives or sanctions, is the antithesis to mindless military power. In truth, there is soft power, hard power, and power-power — the latter being the enormous advantages held by energy rich, oil-exporting states. Take away oil and Saudi Arabia would be the world’s rogue state, with its medieval practice of gender apartheid. Take away oil and Ahmadinejad is analogous to a run-of-the-mill central African thug. Take away oil, and Chavez is one of Ronald Reagan’s proverbial tinhorn dictators.

Russia understands that Europe needs its natural gas, that the U.S. not only must be aware of its own oil dependency, but, more importantly, the ripples of its military on the fragility of world oil supplies, especially the effects upon China, Europe, India, and Japan. When one factors in Russian oil and gas reserves, a pipeline through Georgia, the oil dependency of potential critics of Putin, and the cash garnered by oil exports, then we understand once again that power-power is beginning to trump both its hard and soft alternatives.

Ralph Peters, who points out the hard truth, which is that the Russians have had this one planned for some time...

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.

As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.
Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."

Read each column in it's entirety, as all three make important points in addition to the points excerpted here. The bottom line is simple. The international system is evolving into a 21st Century version of the 19th Century balance of power. Those of us who grew up during the Cold War remember a bipolar world, dominated by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Before WWII the world was dominated by the Great Powers, grouped together into sometimes shifting alliances. We are seeing a return to that system, with the U.S. playing the role of the most powerful (for now), but not transcendent player. If history is our guide, this system can reach an equilibrium for a time, but will eventually fall out of balance, resulting in either a series of small wars, or a ruinous big one.

THE BEAR IS HUNGRY

Russian troops take their attack into Georgian territory and the retreating Georgians wonder why the U.S has abandoned them. When will the people who run our government learn (and this has been true through the years of both Democratic and Republican administrations) that they should not encourage other peoples to believe that the U.S. will back them in their time of need, especially when their adversary is a Great Power?

Meanwhile, the President of Georgia writes this op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal explaining his side of the story, and calling on the West for help.

Robert Kagan believes this move by Putin's Russia is a watershed moment.

Historians will come to view Aug. 8, 2008, as a turning point no less significant than Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell. Russia's attack on sovereign Georgian territory marked the official return of history, indeed to an almost 19th-century style of great-power competition, complete with virulent nationalisms, battles for resources, struggles over spheres of influence and territory, and even -- though it shocks our 21st-century sensibilities -- the use of military power to obtain geopolitical objectives. Yes, we will continue to have globalization, economic interdependence, the European Union and other efforts to build a more perfect international order. But these will compete with and at times be overwhelmed by the harsh realities of international life that have endured since time immemorial. The next president had better be ready.

I agree.

Still, some would prefer to blame the Bush Administration.

Bill Kristol wonders if the Russians will get away with it. I think they will.

In The National Review, James S. Robbins and Jonathan Foreman have thoughts on the conflict.

I believe the conflict reveals certain realities that will have to be dealt with in the coming years. First, as I and others have speculated for months now, Vladimir Putin is still the undisputed leader of Russia. Whether he calls himself President or Prime Minister or Tsar, he runs the show. Second, Russian nationalism has returned and, fed by resentment over the loss of superpower status and fueled by oil wealth, it is a force to be reckoned with. Third, as a result of one and two, Russia's neighbors should begin to see to their defenses if they wish to maintain their independence.

Well, I guess The National Enquirer got this one at least partly right, as John Edwards admits he had an affair, but not that he fathered a love-child.

Meanwhile, in real news, Russia and Georgia go to war over South Ossetia. Reaction is pouring in, ranging from calls for the West to back Georgia, to calls for Georgia to back down. It does appear, though, that this was orchestrated by the Russians who goaded the Georgians to step into a trap. Ralph Peters has some strong views about what is happening, and some analysis of the military situation.

It appears to me as if the Russians did, indeed, set a trap for the Georgians and had a massive response prepared. They may even have designed it to happen during the Olympics, in order to keep world attention distracted to a certain extent. Everyone is playing with fire, but I'm betting that the Russians will get away with it. They will force the Georgians to back down, assert more control over South Ossetia, and be emboldened by their victory, which will be the real (and dangerous) consequence of this unhappy action.

Byron York explains why the MSM is avoiding the John Edwards love-child scandal.

Ralph Peters takes the Butchers of Beijing to task.

Finally, a Gitmo detainee has his case adjudicated, and he could be out in less than a year. While the case of Bin Laden's driver has always been problematic, I have always maintained that since we were not going to take the Roman approach to our enemies (kill them, burn their towns to the ground, sell their women and children into slavery, torture and then crucify any captives deemed worthy of such treatment, etc.), then we needed to take an American approach, which should emphasize the rule of law. We erred in not declaring war on Al Qaeda, which would then have allowed us to treat people like Bin Laden's driver as POWs (and, thus, hold them until the end of the war). But, we didn't. So, I believed it was necessary to create a legal framework for dealing with these guys, and the Pentagon has come up with one. It works. The guy was convicted (although not on all charges), has already served the bulk of his time, and should be released when his sentence is up. If his country of origin is unwilling to take him back (and no one else is, either), he should be offered asylum in the United States. Since we are not going to use overwhelming force and brutality to frighten all the fence-sitters in the Muslim world (which is the current method employed by Al Qaeda), then we need to do the opposite, which is to show them that we really do believe in the rule of law, and we really can show mercy to our enemies, so long as they show contrition and a willingness to lay down their arms.

Peggy Noonan takes a look at the Presidential campaign.

It looks like Russia and Georgia are going to war over South Ossetia as Russian tanks roll into the region and Georgia mobilizes it's reservists. This could have all sorts of broader implications, none of them good.

Jim Hoagland thinks a deal over U.S. troops withdrawing from Iraq may be at hand.

If you are a sports fan, and especially an NFL fan, as I am, then the new that Brett Favre is now a New York Jet is very big, indeed. In New York, one writer thinks it is a great idea, while another thinks less of it. Peter King of Sports Illustrated has more details on how the trade went down late last night.

A look inside some troubling poll numbers for Barack Obama.

Could Jerry Brown become Governor of California for a second time? George Will talks to Brown and examines the political environment in the Golden State.

Iran to the world...drop dead.

WHY OBAMA ISN'T WAY AHEAD

David Brooks wonders why Obama isn't poised to win in a landslide.

Perhaps because even The Boston Globe recognizes an Obama flip-flop when they see one.

Perhaps because Obama's desire to withdraw completely from Iraq in 16 months doesn't make any sense, especially when experts keep telling us that Iraq is not quite ready for a total U.S. withdrawal quite yet.

Perhaps because people aren't sure he can handle Iran, especially when it is looking more and more like they are just stalling for time so they can become nuclear-armed.

Perhaps because his party is out-of-touch on the issue of new offshore drilling for oil.

Perhaps because his campaign keeps walking into political punches.

Perhaps because he isn't doing so well with older White women.

Yesterday, the Rasmussen tracking poll put McCain ahead of Obama 47% to 46%. It should be an Obama (and Democratic Party) landslide, and it may yet be so. But, for now, the American people aren't sure what to do as they stare into the face of wars and rumors of wars, recessions and rumors of recessions, and the very real financial squeeze that seems to tighten with each passing day.

On vacation in Maine last week, which is why I haven't posted anything for some time.

It looks to be a tough Winter ahead when it comes to heating your home with oil or natural gas, according to this story in The Boston Globe. I can definitely feel the pain.

Another wave of loan defaults may be on the way, according to this story in The New York Times.

Also in the Times, a profile of the race between incumbent GOP Senator John Sununu and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen for U.S. Senate here in New Hampshire. A pretty fair analysis, in my estimation. The tide continues to be going out for the GOP here, but the fact that John McCain will be atop the ticket in November is one reason for some optimism. It is also possible that the big Democratic sweep in '06 was an anomaly. I still think Congresswoman Shea-Porter is too Liberal for this district (NH District One), for instance, and may get knocked off by either former Congressman Jeb Bradley or his GOP primary opponent John Stephen. I think the Democrats have a pretty good hold on the more Liberal Second District.