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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

If, like me, you are a Red Sox fan, then read this story, and smile. If you are a Boston sports fan in general, then this story makes good reading as well.

The Dutch and Swiss health care systems are being touted as potential models for health care reform in this country.

Frank Gaffney is concerned about LOST (the Law of the Sea Treaty).

Sen. Feinstein is on the receiving end of Liberal ire.

Sometimes, even a Leftist gets one right.

Greenland may eventually live up to its name.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Gerard Baker wonders what the U.S. Air Force will do with a huge, new bomb. He suspects it might be used to penetrate and destroy a nuclear facility buried deep under the ground inside Iran. I suspect he is right.

Caroline Glick also sees numerous signs of an impending strike against Iran, which she believes is the only thing that will prevent World War III and the destruction of Israel.

An opponent of such a strike, Michael Hirsh, also sees the signs. As for me, I am still opposed to such a strike, as I believe we should not open up another undeclared, limited war without the political will to carry it through to its conclusion.

New Hampshire's Secretary of State now sees little chance of a December primary.

The drought in the American Southeast is creating friction between states that rely on the same water supply.

Here is an article from the Washington Post describing an American unit fighting in Iraq that gives the impression we cannot possibly win the war. Here is a piece from a noted neo-con who says we are winning in Iraq and should not give up. So, why shouldn't you give more credence to the piece that is about real American soldiers fighting in a real Baghdad neighborhood over the piece written by a theorist in Washington who never, to my knowledge, wore the uniform or felt the sting of battle? Because, like all wars, the stories of individual soldiers or units only reveals the action in a limited part of the battle. Depending upon what area you choose to focus on, a battle can be seen as being won or lost, as being decisive or futile. You really need to see the big picture to gain an impression of how you are doing. The soldiers described in the Post article are really seeing something true and significant in their small slice of Iraq (ethnic cleansing, corruption, infiltration by Shiite militias of Iraqi police and Army units, etc.). But that does not mean that good things aren't happening elsewhere in the country, or that those things are not significant, or that the fact that some bad things are happening means we should just give up and go home. In any event, I still believe we all should make up our own minds, but do so after trying to gather all the different facts and opinions that are available to us. We get another shot at deciding this possible in about a year when we elect the next President of the United States. I hope the contenders are clear as to what it is they will do when they get a chance to be "the decider".

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Peter Canellos says the slim victory of Niki Tsongas in that special election held in Massachusetts last week indicates a derailed Democratic Congress. Michael Barone has a similar analysis, pointing to the fact that not only are the Democrats in Congress floundering, but that given a choice between stalemate and withdrawal in Iraq, Americans will likely choose withdrawal (and, thus, the party that advocates withdrawal), but that given a choice between victory and withdrawal they will choose victory (and, thus, the party that advocates victory).

Canadians and Europeans, on the other hand, just want withdrawal, not only from Iraq, but also Afghanistan.

Here is an argument for partitioning Iraq.

Christopher Hitchens says Islamofascism is a proper term, despite the criticism.

The Gallup people put Hillary Clinton's massive lead in the polls into historical perspective. The bottom line? She has almost got the nomination locked up.

Monday, October 22, 2007

I was not watching the latest GOP Presidential debate last night, as I was engrossed in watching the Red Sox win Game 7 of the ALCS. Byron York of the National Review did watch, and has these impressions of the debate, the speeches made earlier to a group of Evangelical Christians, and the overall status of the race at this time. I agree with his larger conclusion, that this is now a wide-open race with Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and even Mike Huckabee all with a shot to win the nomination. I believe the race will, eventually, boil down to Rudy Giuliani versus a conservative alternative. Whoever becomes the conservative alternative to Giuliani will win the nomination.

A new study predicts a sharp decline in oil production.

The historian Niall Ferguson still advocates a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, although he believes it is becoming more politically difficult to do.

Like many media folks, I start my day with a quick look at The Drudge Report. Today, Matt Drudge makes the front-page of the New York Times with this story about the Clinton campaign's efforts to use Drudge to their advantage.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Another busy week, so I have been lazy about blogging. Some of the things that happened which I find interesting include the following:

If Vladimir Putin is serious about his warnings against any military action aimed at Iran, it could seriously complicate the Bush Administration's efforts at preventing an Iranian bomb.

A New Hampshire primary in December? It is starting to look like a good bet.

After spending the last year fairly confident that the 2008 election would be a repudiation of the President and his party, I am beginning to see evidence that the political currents are changing direction. Michael Barone sees evidence of this in the special election held this past week in Massachusetts, where the Democrat, Niki Tsongas, defeated her GOP challenger by a surprisingly small margin. What is happening to change the currents? This piece in the American Prospect argues that it is because the Democrats in Congress are increasingly viewed by the public as ineffective. Bill Kristol makes essentially the same argument, adding the equally powerful point that this Congress is also increasingly being seen as a body which tried to force the Administration into accepting defeat in Iraq, while the President simply pushed forward with a new strategy to try to obtain victory. So, as we approach the end of 2007, what does this mean for 2008? It means that the GOP may very well be able to campaign next year as the party that is more capable of achieving victory in Iraq, as well as in the overall war on terror, and they can campaign against a "do-nothing" Democratic Congress. If violence continues to decrease in Iraq, and if the different factions move closer to some accommodation (and I realize that those are very big "ifs"), it will be hard to argue against the Bush/Petraeus strategy as anything other than a success. Combine that with a series of silly mistakes by the Democrats in Congress (like the Rush Limbaugh letter fiasco), and you could get a GOP victory next November.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Thomas Sowell says the attempt by Democrats in the House to pass a resolution condemning the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks during World War I is simply another way to try and disrupt the American war effort in Iraq. Certainly, it may have that effect, if the Turks decide to stop allowing our military the use of its airspace and facilities. Meanwhile, in what may turn out to be an even more disruptive event, the Turkish military wants to cross the Iraqi border to attack Kurdish terrorists who have been attacking them. Depending upon the scale of the incursion and the destruction it causes, we could be seeing a whole new political situation developing, and not for the better.

Derrick Jackson thinks Senator Obama's campaign is playing well in Iowa. It does seem to be the place where he is at least maintaining some level of competitiveness with Senator Clinton.

Senator Clinton now has a plan to end the war in Iraq, as well as changing the tone, if not the direction, of U.S. foreign policy. She would begin to remove troops from Iraq within 60 days of assuming office, though she would leave some behind. The details are rather vague, and it is somewhat reminiscent of Nixon patting his pocket and telling the American people that he had a plan to end the war in Vietnam. Of course, Nixon didn't provide many details, either, and it turned out that his "Vietnamization" plan took four years to implement (although, to be fair, the plan might have succeeded if Nixon hadn't gotten himself in trouble with the Watergate scandal which led to his resignation and, ultimately, a Congressional cut-off of all aid to the South Vietnamese, leaving them vulnerable to the eventual all-out North Vietnamese assault in 1975).

Public schools across the country are having trouble meeting the standards of the "No Child Left Behind" law. Until we decide to make a clean break with our outmoded, early 20th Century public school model, these failures will continue.

The filing period for the New Hampshire presidential primary opened yesterday. For three weeks candidates will head for Secretary of State Bill Gardner's office and plunk down their $1,000 to get on the ballot. When the period is over, the ballot will be drawn up and sent to the printer, and then distributed to the clerks across the state. Once that is done, the primary can happen at any time so designated by Secretary Gardner. I expect a date to be set sometime within a couple of days of the end of the filing period, because I know Bill Gardner is sensitive to the needs of the candidates, the media, and the hotels and other businesses of New Hampshire that will need some time to plan for the event.

Monday, October 15, 2007

If you recently read a story about LTG Sanchez (former commander of ground forces in Iraq) and his criticism of the conduct of the Iraq War, you may have gotten the impression that he now considers that war "a nightmare with no end in sight". I thought so, too (see my post below). Then, after reading some comments at The Belmont Club, I read the General's whole speech. You should read it, too. Sanchez believes that the over-all war we are fighting against Islamist extremism without a unified national strategy is the nightmare (he quotes from a Japanese proverb, "action without vision is a nightmare"). He also slams some elements of the national press corps and the civilian leadership in Washington. You might not agree with everything he says, but there is certainly some truth in it, especially when he points out that we do not seem to have any kind of national strategy to conduct the over-all war, nor the national unity that such a strategy might provide. This, of course, is a recipe for defeat.

Of course, it could get worse. If Stanley Kurtz is to be believed, in this piece on the National Review website, then nuclear deterrence of North Korea is failing, which could lead (and Kurtz believes there is at least a 50-50 chance) to a nuclear detonation somewhere in the world within the next few years.

Congratulations to Fred Thompson. While he may not be campaigning enough here in New Hampshire, he has, at least, been politically courageous enough (or dumb enough) to offer a plan to resolve the looming Social Security crisis. It won't help him win (and might hurt him), but it does raise him up a notch in my estimation (and I'm a real, live, New Hampshire primary voter, so it might count for something).

A noted hurricane expert says Al Gore's film doesn't pass the smell test.

Some experts believe that Al Qaeda in Iraq is crippled. If true, that is good news, though it won't change the political reality here at home, and it may not change the political reality in Iraq, either.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

It's been a busy week, with two trips to New York, which is why I have have not been blogging. Back in New Hampshire now, with an eye on the following:

A reporter from the Washington Post spent some quality time with our Secretary of State Bill Gardner and State Representative Jim Splaine. For those of you who don't know, Splaine wrote the 1975 law that gives Gardner almost total power over the date of our Presidential Primary. In the article, Gardner and Splaine (mostly Splaine) speculate about a possible December 11 primary date (John Distaso also writes about it in his Granite Status column in the Union Leader). New Hampshire primary veterans (like me) know that the date of the primary is limited only by the logistics of a filing period to get candidates on the ballot (anyone can get on the ballot who meets the Constitutional requirements for serving as President and can pay a $1,000 fee) and the time needed to print and distribute the ballots. According to Gardner, only about two weeks will be needed after the filing period is closed to get it done, which leaves open the possibility of a December 11 date. For me, the most powerful argument for such an early date is that it will give candidates time to recover from whatever happens here in New Hampshire. The greatest problem with the front-loading of the primaries is that it compresses the action to such a degree that only the well-funded front-runners can possibly win the nomination. A better system would spread the primaries out so that the nation could take a long, hard look at the candidates as they battle through adversity. Unfortunately, this year's events only prove that the process cannot be controlled so long as it is subject to the decisions made by people who cannot be deterred by any possible sanction from the major party leadership.

The former commander of ground forces in Iraq (whose exit from command was not under favorable circumstances, by the way) says there is no end in sight to the war. You think the anti-war left is angry at George W. Bush now, just wait until you see how angry they get with President Hillary Clinton when she keeps our troops in the fight.

Must reading...."An Inconvenient Peace Prize".

So, the Jews really do rule the world.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Turkey's armed forces could enter Kurdish Iraq to retaliate for recent Kurdish attacks inside Turkey. The Turkish Prime Minister is under domestic political pressure to do something. If he goes for it, things could get very complicated.

Dan Balz of the Washington Post says the most interesting part of their new poll about Iowa is not that Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field, but that Mike Huckabee could be the surprise of the Republican field. You'll notice that Congressman Ron Paul's fans have stormed the comments section. They remind me of the passion exhibited by the Buchanan Brigade in 1996. That passion led to one upset, New Hampshire, but eventual defeat at the hands of Bob Dole. As I recall, Buchanan was mired at low numbers in the polls right up until the last week or so before Iowa and New Hampshire. This is also true for Ron Paul today. We shall see if he makes a surge near the finish line, as Buchanan did. This time, though, there is no accepted establishment candidate to act as a counter to Paul's people, as there was with Buchanan. Although that could change if Paul does unexpectedly well in Iowa, NH or both. That would cause voters to coalesce around a mainstream candidate as the news media would go all out to publicize any Ron Paul thoughts and quotes that fall outside the mainstream, just as they did with Buchanan (although Pat didn't help himself with his "ride to the sound of the guns" rhetoric and waving a rifle over his head at the O.K. Corral in Tombstone, Arizona).

Here in New Hampshire, according to this story in the Boston Globe, voters are warming to Hillary Clinton. That may be true. Certainly, she continues to poll well here.

So, once again a leak to the news media by someone inside the government results in an intelligence failure. I just don't know how we are going to win this war if we keep bumbling and stumbling along.

Monday, October 08, 2007

If Kurdish rebels cross the border into Turkey and kill Turkish soldiers, which they did recently, shouldn't the Turks be allowed to cross that border and retaliate? After all, if Iranians cross the border and kill Americans, that would be justification for a limited American strike against Iran, wouldn't it?

Congressman Ron Paul defends his non-interventionist foreign policy.

Some common sense talk about global warming.

Anne Applebaum wonders if the Dutch will abandon free speech.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Anti-tax New Hampshire couple finally taken into custody. Congratulations to Stephen Monier for overseeing a well-executed plan to enforce the law without violence. When the Browns decided to hole up in their Plainfield home and vowed to resist arrest, visions of Ruby Ridge and Waco were dancing in my head. Fortunately, Sheriff Monier and his people also had visions of those two tragedies, and were determined to avoid a repeat. By remaining patient, cutting off power and communications to the Browns, seizing other land they held, and arresting those who travelled to their aid (after all, it is a crime to aide and abet people who are engaged in a crime) they were able to set the stage for a peaceful end to the stand-off.

Jim Rubens is worried that gambling will expand here in the Granite State. He should be worried. The walls are starting to crumble.

An interesting demographic theory of war. If it is true, then we can expect a long, frustrating war with Islamic extremists. We can also expect, due to the imminent demographic collapse of Iran, that they might launch their own war sooner rather than later.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Byron York writes about the "phony soldiers" controversy surrounding Rush Limbaugh. It appears that Limbaugh was not referring to combat soldiers who oppose our continued presence in Iraq. Instead, he was referring to people who pretend to be combat soldiers and make up stories about American atrocities in Iraq. Former Congressman Tom Delay says it is just the first example of the Clinton attack machine gearing up for political combat next year. It does seem to be a phony controversy, although I suspect it is more about getting the left-wing base fired up and writing checks rather than an effort to discredit, and silence, Limbaugh.

Speaking of political combat, a House committee is launching an investigation into the Justice Department's handling of the 2002 New Hampshire phone jamming case.

The New York Times goes all-out with this lengthy, front-page article about secret, Bush Administration legal justifications for torture. Expect a spate of follow-up stories by the rest of the MSM, and the Democrats in Congress will surely jump on the bandwagon. Still, I'm not sure it will be of any political use to the Democrats, since I think most Americans are in favor of Jack Bauer methods when dealing with terrorists.

The Bush Administration has finally given up, just as the Clinton Administration did, on trying to hold the North Koreans accountable regarding their illegal nuclear program. They will pay the bribes, declare victory, and kick the can down the road to the next administration. Meanwhile, expect the North Koreans to continue to cheat and sell their stuff to whomever has the cash to buy.

Is the record retreat of Arctic ice this Summer a harbinger of accelerating climate change? This piece argues that it is.

The Washington Post's new poll shows Hillary beating Rudy. Of course, I don't think that will be the match-up in November of 2008.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Is global warming for real? Folks who study Arctic ice are worried that it is, indeed, happening. There is still some disagreement about why the ice sheet is melting more extensively during the Summer months, but there is a growing consensus that it will continue.

The New York Times has discovered what I wrote about more than a year ago, that independents here in New Hampshire will make the difference in our primary. In 2000 they went for McCain, leading to his surprising victory over George W. Bush. Right now they appear to be leaning to Obama, which could give him the victory over Hillary Clinton.

In Russia, democracy continues to fade away as Putin positions himself to retain power.

A new poll shows Americans are still divided, and confused, about what to do about Iraq. It also shows both the President and the Congress are unpopular.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Here in NH, Obama supporters contend that their man is doing well, despite the polls. Early on, I predicted that independents would swarm the Democratic contest here and give the edge to Obama. All the polling data seems to indicate that I was wrong. But election day hasn't arrived yet, so there is still time.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, a Newsweek poll says that likely Democratic caucus voters are split between Clinton, Obama and Edwards, even as Clinton continues to lead among registered voters. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney continues to lead the pack.

At least some Christian Conservatives are thinking about a Third Party candidate if Giuliani wins the GOP nomination.

Those folks needn't worry, though, as Fred Thompson will win, according to this piece.

The weak dollar allows foreigners to buy more American companies.

In Burma, a defector reports that thousands are dead, with the bodies of monks being deposited in the jungle. I guess this falls within Mark Steyns' recent thesis, which is that democracies talk, while tyrannies act.