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Friday, September 30, 2011

Some folks believe the "Fast and Furious" gun-running ATF scandal will be another Watergate. It will not, of course, because the MSM will not chase the story (no Woodward and Bernstein and Washington Post to keep the story alive) and because the GOP does not need the scandal to bring Obama down (he's doing a peachy job of that all by himself).

Charles Krauthammer states the obvious...the Palestinians want a state under only one, ironclad condition...no Israel.

Daniel Henninger says we should take Herman Cain and his candidacy for President seriously.

Jay Cost also believes Cain should be taken seriously because it would help put the Black vote back into play, which would be good for the GOP but also for the political influence of African-Americans generally.

Here is an interesting analysis of why the seeming Electoral College advantage for President Obama may be illusory.

Daniel Hannan says the survival of the Eurozone is not in Britain's interest.

Michael Gerson tells us why the trouble in Europe is trouble for America's economy.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Peter Wehner writes about some new polling data released by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg that shows the Democrats could be in even deeper trouble in 2012 than they were in 2010. Here is the National Journal story about the new data that surveys 60 Republican-held battleground House districts. The data indicates continuing poor approval ratings for the President, but the current incumbents aren't terribly popular, either. Still, it does not seem to be a generally anti-incumbent feeling. Currently I am researching the phenomenon of mid-term loss (the President's party almost always loses House seats in a mid-term election) and I am now heading down the path of looking specifically at how and why realigning elections happen, specifically when the House changes hands and remains in one party's control for a decade or more. It appears that these changes often happen over a multi-election cycle. After the stock market crash of 1929 the Democrats made big gains in 1930, falling just short of winning control of the House. Then, famously, FDR and the Democrats gained a crushing landslide victory in 1932. But the wave continued even into 1934 with the Democrats gaining a few more House seats, the first time since the Civil War that the President's party won seats in a midterm election. 2010 could be just the first in a series of GOP wave elections that might hand them control in Washington for the next decade or more.

Sean Trende examines the U.S. Senate electoral landscape for 2012 and finds the odds seem to favor a GOP takeover. If I am correct and 2012 continues the 2010 wave, then the GOP may end up with a 55-45 split or better.

Jay Cost gives us a history lesson about the Southern realignment.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

David Brooks finally realizes the truth about himself.

President Obama, facing a potential challenge from the liberal base of his own party, has decided to embark on a course of political confrontation with the GOP by proposing a plan that refuses to trim entitlement benefits unless they are accompanied by tax increases on "the rich" (I put that in quotation marks because the definition is fungible). I happen to believe that this is his only hope for winning re-election, although it will make it impossible for him to get anything substantive passed through Congress for the remainder of his first term. This new rhetoric will fire up his base, as indicated by this column from Eugene Robinson and this one from Dana Milbank. But the real key, and his only real hope, is that this rhetoric can convince white, working class Americans in sufficient numbers to support him who right now seem not inclined to do so. If, on the other hand, those voters believe the editors of The Wall Street Journal when they say that "the rich" are already paying their "fair share" and, more importantly to them, any renewed effort by the federal government to get more taxes will inevitably snare the middle-class, then Obama is still electorally doomed. (As an aside, for those of you who believe that most white, working-class Americans do not read The Wall Street Journal, I concede the point. However, many of those Americans do listen to Rush Limbaugh, or watch Hannity or O'Reilly on TV. Those gentlemen agree with the editors of the Journal, and they hammer at those points nearly every day).

Meanwhile, over in Europe, people are coming to grips with the various scenarios surrounding a possible Greek default.

One such scenario results in the end of the European Project. Bret Stephens sees that as the inevitable outcome.

Finally, this article from John Judis in The New Republic is a reminder that there are still quite a few Keynesian true believers out there, convinced that the only way out of the Great Recession is massive government spending.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

President Obama's job approval slips to an all-time low in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll...43% approve with 50% who disapprove. Reading into the poll one finds he has only one population who give him their support...Democrats. Independents and Republicans disapprove by large margins. If this is the mood of the populace in November, 2012, then he cannot win re-election.

Meanwhile, Mark Steyn writes about the ludicrous picture of the President campaigning for a jobs bill that hasn't even been submitted to Congress, yet the President continues to shout, "Pass this jobs bill now". What jobs bill?

Peggy Noonan also comments on the declining political fortunes of the President as she examines the results from the special election in the 9th district of New York.

George Will talks with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta about the threats facing the U.S. and the looming possibility of massive spending cuts directed at the defense budget.

The Eurozone faces the possibility of a nightmare scenario. David Ignatius points to one of the root causes of the present crisis.

A new survey of college students paints a pretty bleak picture about their sense of entitlement. The anger and frustration that they will feel when they don't get what they want will be a major factor in the coming social upheaval here in the West. Fortunately for us here in America, a significant portion of our young people continue to show overwhelming evidence of a willingness to sacrifice for their country, a willingness to serve, take risks, and work hard. They are our salvation.