Barron's is predicting that the GOP will retain control of Congress. They are the only people I have seen, other than Karl Rove, who are making that prediction. Their analysis is simply based on money, without considering the polls. For instance, under their scenario, Congressman Charlie Bass (R-NH) will lose, because he has raised less money than his Democratic opponent, Paul Hodes. I am not buying that one. Bass is considered vulnerable every two years, yet he manages to pull out a victory every time. I do not believe he will be held responsible for the ethical problems of some of his GOP colleagues, or for the foreign policy choices that have been made by the President. If he does lose, that will be an indicator that the Democrats really are riding a wave, not that the candidates who raised more money are going to win most of their races. Barron's says their method is very accurate, but I am not so sure it applies in an election driven by emotion, as I believe this one will be. Still, it is an interesting way of looking at the problem, and you should read it.
David Broder has some thoughts on what the Democrats would do if they took control of Congress. While I have no doubt that the men he interviewed (Senators Reed and Levin) are sincere in their reasonable foreign policy prescriptions, I suspect that their more radical colleagues in the House would follow a more confrontational path.
posted by Dan Pierce @ 8:19 PM
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1 Comments:
This is your fan in Cape Canaveral who called an hour ago. I clicked "anonymous" because I don't know how identifiable one is on a blog and I've decided not to use my real name as I always did when I called the radio. For whatever reason, I have never gotten into blogs and don't know how they work. Just thought I'd see if I could find a Dan Pierce website and came up with this.
The thing I wanted to add re Bush and why he has no credibility for me (but didn't figure I could take more time) is this, which I NEVER hear mentioned. Everyone talks about fatal flaw of too few troops at the outset of Iraq invasion, no one seems to remember the Turkish parliament vote. I had a horrible feeling of dread about this whole thing right from the beginning because the cabal in the White House launched an invasion, part of which was to enter through the north, BEFORE they had permission from Turkey to do it!!!! How nutty is that?? Perhaps understandable if they had the word of the Turkish president they could enter Turkish waters, but Bush had the ships all in place and they still needed the VOTE OF THE TURKISH PARLIAMENT!! That was some 30-40,000 troops. All had to move around by boat. I can't help but think that those troops could have made all the difference as they would have come through the northern Suni homeland of Saddam himself. Perhaps they would have occupied the northern part immediately -- we'll never know. But that, plus the riotous looting with Cheney saying some dumb thing, like, they're just letting off steam. They were stealing the weapons which we did not have enough troops in place to guard, for gosh sakes! And then the total lack of doing anything about our open Mexican border???
` I think Georg Bush will go down as one of the wierdest presidents in history. And I confess I voted for him in 2000 because couldn't vote for Buchanan who had hijacked my Reform Party. Don't get me wrong, Buchanan was and is one of the most astute people in America -- he has been right about trade, immigration, "A Republic not an Empire" book, everything. But he is in my opinion a zealot on abortion and very deliberately mislead Reformers into thinking he could accept that the Reform Party constituion decreed -- no Party platform on abortion and/or other "social" or "cultural" issues. He wanted the Reform Party to become a pro-life party. And that's why he got so few votes and destroyed the party. All I could do as Party Secretary in NH was help see that he never got on the NH ballot as a Reform Party candidate -- he had to run as simply "independent.
He is a major commentator on MSNBC these days, and as astute and shrewd as ever. I'm not sure whether he was responsible for what happened when he got candidacy of Reform Party or followers took him over. Either way, have to hold him responsible.
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