NEW HAMPSHIRE - BLUE STATE

The slow but steady transformation of New Hampshire from a Red State to a Blue State is continuing, as a new poll is out showing that in the Second Congressional District Democrat Paul Hodes is building a big lead over Republican incumbent Charlie Bass, who beat Hodes two years ago by ten points. That same poll shows the virtually unknown Carol Shea-Porter within striking distance of Congressman Jeb Bradley in the First District. New Hampshire voters are also poised to deliver a resounding re-election for Democratic Governor John Lynch, who leads by over 50 points in a recent poll. While I can find much to quibble with in the polling data (the UNH polls, it seems to me, tend to overestimate the Democrat turnout as a percentage of the total vote), there seems to be every reason to believe that Governor Lynch will win big, and he may have some significant coattails. Combine that with the dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq, and a general dissatisfaction with Republican rule in Washington over a variety of issues, and that is a prescription for big Democratic gains here in the Granite State.

I expect that Hodes will beat Bass, but probably only by four or five points. Bradley will hang on by a similar margin. Lynch's victory should lead to the Democrats picking up a bunch of seats in the state legislature and a couple of Executive Council seats. We might see a return to Democratic control of the State Senate, although the GOP should retain control of the State House.

If Bass loses, it will be ironic in that he rode the GOP wave into office in 1994.

For the Democrats, as the state's demographics continue to become more favorable to them, the major danger they face is hubris. Should they try to step too far to the Left, especially if they lead an effort to enact a state income tax, there could be a significant backlash. But, of course, all of that is for the future. As for today, specifically, this coming Tuesday, it looks like it will be a long night for the Grand Old Party.