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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTIONS

The last polls here in New Hampshire show Obama and McCain as the leaders as we head for the clubhouse. Zogby International shows that both Obama and McCain are widening their respective leads, with Obama now in double-digits. There appears to be only one question left. How many independents will vote, and in which primary? If independents break in larger numbers to the Democratic primary, then Obama easily wins by double-digits, but Romney stays closer to McCain, and might even pull it out. But there is also the possibility that so many independents will show up that there will be more than enough to go around for both Obama and McCain.

So, for what it's worth (not much) and at the risk of some embarrassment, here are my New Hampshire primary predictions:

Democrats

Obama 41%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 8%

Republicans

McCain 35%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%

I'll try to post something later today as we learn about turnout. Also, I will be on again with Dan Rea on WBZ tonight, probably after 9 PM, as we analyze the real results. Then, all you out-of-staters can go home.

BTW, check out these latest numbers from South Carolina.

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