Some new national polls are out, and they show that McCain and Obama are surging. The CBS/New York Times poll shows this, as does the ABC/Washington Post poll. But if you look inside the numbers on the GOP side especially, you see that this story about indecision in South Carolina is confirmed. Many Republicans are still undecided, a fact that I think is driven by the feeling that none of the candidates measures up to the Reagan standard (a problem we are going to have on our side of the aisle as long as Reagan lives in our memories).

In Michigan, it remains a tight race between Romney and McCain according to these polls. In South Carolina, these polls show that McCain is now challenging Huckabee. In Florida, these polls show McCain has now taken the lead over Giuliani. Anyone notice a trend?

Bob Novak says McCain isn't quite talking straight about his tax cut votes. Despite this and other problems, and despite the level of indecision among GOP voters, McCain seems to be approaching the point where he can surge into a position of inevitability. Beat Romney in Michigan, Huckabee in South Carolina and Giuliani in Florida, and I don't see how he can be stopped.

As for the Democrats, it continues to look like it will be a knock-down drag-out fight all the way to the convention, with nasty racial overtones a distinct possibility. Ironic, isn't it? Despite all the polling numbers and all the conventional wisdom that indicate this should be a banner year for the Democrats, both parties may yet follow historical patterns. The GOP may quickly unite around a nominee, considered from the beginning to be next in line, as they always seem to do despite their internal differences. The Democrats may engage in a bitter blood feud as different factions break out the long knives all the way to the end, with a reservoir of bitterness left facing the eventual nominee. The Democrats might still prevail in November, but if it turns out as I have illustrated in the preceding sentences, it will be a lot more difficult for them than it could have been, and the election will be a lot closer than current polls would indicate.