The campaigns are scrambling for votes in Nevada and South Carolina. In Nevada, the real problem facing the campaigns is trying to get out the vote. Nevadans are inexperienced when it comes to this early voting thing and, in addition, they are having caucuses instead of a primary. Don't be surprised if turnout is low, despite the enormous importance of the contest. In South Carolina, I would expect a big turnout (they've been doing the early primary thing long enough now to have gotten used to the drill, even though it is happening even earlier than before).

The Nevada polling information shows that Mitt Romney is in the lead over John McCain while the polls concerning the Democratic race have Hillary ahead of Obama. The South Carolina polls have McCain leading Huckabee on the GOP side and Obama leading Hillary on the Democratic side.

Back on January 7, while painting a possible scenario that might lead to a brokered convention for the GOP, I correctly predicted that McCain would win NH with Romney second and that Romney would win Michigan with McCain second. At that time I predicted a Huckabee win in South Carolina with McCain second and a Giuliani win in Florida with McCain second. The current Florida polls show McCain now leading Giuliani in The Sunshine State. It all now hinges on what happens in South Carolina tomorrow. If McCain can win there, he can probably knock out Huckabee. If he wins in Florida, that knocks out Giuliani. Romney, who does fairly well everywhere, although he has only one win (he will probably also win in Nevada, as I predicted on the 7th), will emerge as the one candidate to stop a McCain nomination. Can he garner enough support quickly enough to beat McCain? With folks like Rush Limbaugh giving him support, and McCain's inexplicable habit of poking his finger in the eyes of conservatives, Romney still has a shot.