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Sunday, February 10, 2008

Here are the results from yesterday's caucuses and primaries.

Obama's wins in the caucuses in Washington and Nebraska again point to his organizational superiority, which is surprising since he is facing an opponent who should have the advantage in that area. Since winning in Iowa Obama has won nearly every caucus. That shows how his supporters are well organized and passionate about their candidate. In Louisiana, Obama won by a significant margin, again taking over 80% of the African-American vote, while getting a quarter of the white vote. Obama continues to beat Clinton by such larger margins among African-Americans and white men that he negates her advantage with women. After watching his speech last night, and after looking at the results, I am still convinced that he will eventually surpass Hillary in delegates and reach the finish line ahead of her.

Huckabee won by a large margin in the Kansas caucuses, which allowed him to get the attention early in the evening on the TV election coverage and the headlines in the Sunday morning papers, but McCain managed to eke out a win in the Washington caucuses and was very close to Huckabee in Louisiana. Since Huckabee did not get to 50% in Louisiana, no delegates were awarded. Huckabee's campaign is still alive, but the mathematics of the situation preclude a victory for him (barring a miracle). Still, unlike some others, I think his presence in the campaign is valuable. Some believe he should step aside so that McCain, as the presumptive GOP nominee, can get a head start on campaigning in general election mode. I think that an early end to the GOP contest would be harmful, as all the press attention (and, therefore, the public's attention) would be centered on the fascinating drama being played out in the Democratic contest. As long as Huckabee is in the race, the networks and the rest of the press are obligated to cover the GOP caucuses and primaries. Of course they will spend more time and resources covering the Democrats, as there is more drama in that race. But they will still talk about the Republicans in the context of whether or not McCain can unify the party. This will keep some attention on them for a while longer. When McCain mathematically locks up the nomination, Huckabee can join him on the stage (maybe they can get Romney to join them, as well as the other candidates who dropped out) and they can declare a unified front. Notice, too, that Huckabee is not attacking McCain. That, I believe, is deliberate. He can campaign honorably and with enthusiasm without slinging mud onto the likely nominee.

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