ROMNEY PLODS ON

After winning Puerto Rico handily on Sunday, Mitt Romney scored a solid win in Illinois yesterday. The former Massachusetts governor continues to plod forward toward the nomination. Rick Santorum seems the only viable alternative to Romney, but Gingrich and Paul remain in the race despite the fact that they have almost no chance of winning the nomination (minuscule for Gingrich, zero for Paul).

Next up is Louisiana on Saturday. Perhaps a disappointing finish there will cause Gingrich to drop out, but only a solid Romney win would potentially persuade Santorum to give up, and I doubt even that would cause him to drop out. It still seems likely to me that this process will continue until at least until the end of April. On April 24 New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware hold primaries. If Romney can sweep those contests, especially if he beats Santorum in Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania, then the contest is all but over.

IT'S ALL ABOUT NEWT

Last night was a good night for Rick Santorum. He won two out of three, taking the primaries in Alabama and Mississippi while Mitt Romney won in Hawaii. Unfortunately for Santorum, Newt Gingrich managed to finish second in both of the southern states which might give the former Speaker just enough false hope to stay in the race.

We are now at a crucial crossroads in the GOP presidential nominating process. Rick Santorum is clearly the "more conservative" alternative to Mitt Romney. But Santorum cannot possibly pile up enough delegates to catch Romney so long as Gingrich remains in the race. So we are now faced with a fundamental question about what is inside Newt's head and his heart. Is Newt Gingrich a "party man", as Ari Fleischer described him during CNN's election coverage last night? Or is he a delusional, selfish, narcissistic egomaniac who thinks he will somehow be acclaimed as the nominee at a brokered convention?

If Newt is a "party man", he will step aside and allow a straight-up competition between Romney and Santorum to proceed. Of course, he is perfectly within his rights to make an endorsement in such a competition. If, however, he is delusional, he will stay in the race, hoping to make himself the last man standing, but in the process doing serious damage to the Republican cause.

My guess? Unlike Fleischer, I think Newt Gingrich cares only about himself, and will act accordingly. I hope I am wrong.

GINGRICH'S LAST STAND?

Today Alabama and Mississippi hold presidential primaries. The RCP average for Alabama polls shows Romney with a slight lead, but really all three candidates are neck-and-neck-and-neck (with Ron Paul getting in the low single digits). There are fewer recent polls for Mississippi, but those that are publicly available show a very similar situation.

This is an unsustainable situation for Newt Gingrich. He must win at least one of these Deep South states to stay in the race and I would argue that he really needs to win them both. As it stands now he could finish third to Romney and Santorum in one or both.

Despite his optimistic spin, I expect he will finally drop out if he loses both states.

THE RACE WILL GO ON...AND ON.

Yesterday was Super Tuesday. Voters in ten states (Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia) went to primaries and caucuses to cast ballots for the Republican nomination for President. Entering the evening, four candidates remained in the race; Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. By the time the last states were called (Ohio due to the closeness of the race and Alaska due to its western geographic position) all four candidates vowed to carry on.

The final results showed Mitt Romney the victor in Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont and Virginia. Rick Santorum won North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia. Ron Paul did not win a single state.

Mitt Romney will stay in, of course, because he remains the front runner. He leads in the delegate count and still has the clearest path to the nomination.

Rick Santorum will stay in the race because he remains the most viable conservative alternative to Romney.

Newt Gingrich remains in the race because he is a narcissist of the first order.

Ron Paul will stay in the race because of his ideals. He wants his message of monetary reform and a strict reading and following of the Constitution to get as much penetration into the psyche of the American people as possible.

Because of all of this, the race will go on. This Saturday Republicans will caucus in Kansas, as well as in the territories of Guam, the Northern Marianas islands and the Virgin Islands. Expect Santorum to do well in Kansas with Romney and Paul both getting delegates in the others. Next Tuesday Alabama and Mississippi hold primaries while Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses. This will be the next opportunity to eliminate Gingrich if Santorum can win both of those states. If Newt wins one, or both, he will continue his campaign (and he may continue on even if he loses). The next big state is Illinois on March 20.

You may be sick of it all by now, as I am. You may have come to believe that this is a weak field, reminiscent of the GOP in '96 or the Democrats in '04, as I have. But despite our misgivings, the race will go on. For those of us who truly wish to see the incumbent President sent packing, we will need fate to intervene. The good news? American electoral history is filled with instances of fate and chance, or mischance, deciding the mood of the voting public on election day.