Is President Bush about to surrender to political reality concerning the Iraq War? David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, says the President has acknowledged there is a "Plan B-H" for Iraq, as in the Baker-Hamilton Report. Upon its release, the Baker-Hamilton Report, also known as the Iraq Study Group Report, was widely ridiculed as dead-on-arrival, as the President had already decided to go for a troop surge in a last-ditch effort to salvage something like victory in the Iraq War. Now, it appears that the President understands the political reality in Washington, which is that the Republicans in Congress have given the President, and General Petraeus in the field, until September to show demonstrable signs of progress in Iraq. After that, if there is no such change (which, I expect, there will not be, at least in terms readily identifiable to the American people), then those GOP Congressmen and women will start defecting in large numbers to the Democrats. The only way to prevent those defections, which are driven by the polls which show a majority of Americans in favor of withdrawal (and stories like this one from New Hampshire), is to come up with a disengagement plan that will sell on Main Street America. Right now, that can only be Baker-Hamilton, which was widely praised by Democrats upon its release, which will make it harder for them to reject it if the President embraces it.

The handwriting is on the wall, and has been for some time. This war, like the limited wars in Korea and, especially, Vietnam, was lost when the American people turned against it. They expressed their dissatisfaction last November, which resulted in the Democrats taking back the Congress (and a number of state legislatures, like mine here in NH). The President, Karl Rove, and the GOP members of Congress, all must know by now that the situation will, in all probability, not look a whole lot different come November of 2008, except for the fact that we will have a much higher number of dead Americans to mourn. If anything, the American people will be angrier and more disillusioned by then, which will amount to an even larger electoral disaster for the GOP. The only way to head it off is to fundamentally change the discussion. The only way to do that short of an immediate withdrawal is to implement a policy of phased withdrawal, based on benchmarks to be achieved by the Iraqi government and on diplomatic discussions with the neighbors, including Iran and Syria. Politically, it still might not be enough. If Americans are still in Iraq fighting and dying in considerable numbers in November, 2008, it could still turn into a political disaster for the GOP. At least, so the thinking goes, there is a chance to make the election about something else if there is a policy on the table that is a compromise made with the help of moderates in both parties. That will, at least, keep people like Hillary Clinton from posturing on the issue, and it has the added bonus of forcing her to fend off attacks from the outraged anti-war folks, who will accept nothing less than total, immediate withdrawal.

Expect a compromise policy, largely based on Baker-Hamilton, to emerge in September, and troop withdrawals to begin early in 2008.

Michael Ledeen says the Iranians have taken American hostages, and no one seems to care.

Bob Novak writes about Fred Thompson today. As an undecided New Hampshire Republican voter, I am intrigued by his candidacy.

According to the New York Times, Kurds are being driven out of Mosul by Sunni Arabs.

The Iranian government expresses its gratitude for the U.S. being willing to enter into negotiations by charging three Iranian-Americans as spies.

Fred Thompson will announce that he is running for President on the Fourth of July weekend, according to this story. I will certainly give him a serious look.

Peace activist Cindy Sheehan has dropped out of the anti-war movement, and some folks are pleased.

Harold Meyerson, himself a stridently anti-war columnist, tries to explain the facts of Congressional life to the anti-war crowd in this column.

Robert J. Samuelson points out the glaring hypocrisy of Democrats in Washington on the issue of global warming and gasoline prices.

Could we really do without the public school system?

If you read the New York Times, then it is clear that we are losing the Iraq War. The war has caused jihadis to hone their skills and export their violence, and our soldiers in Iraq are growing disillusioned with a war they see no way of winning.

If you read Michael Yon, reporting from inside Iraq, the surge is showing signs of progress.

If you read me, you know that it doesn't matter whether or not we are winning or losing militarily in Iraq, the war is already lost as a political matter here at home, and when the Democrats win the White House in November, 2008, our withdrawal will begin in 2009.

Gee, politics played a role in Senator Kerry's Iraq War vote? You don't say! Duhhhh!

Richard Halloran reports that the Chinese are interested in buying or building aircraft carriers for their navy.

Mark Steyn writes that their is so much news, but so little sense out there.

Here is an interesting piece on the pernicious effects of the hip-hop culture on African-Americans.

This Bob Novak piece illustrates why Congress will never get rid of the practice of attaching pork barrel earmarks onto bills.

Here is an article from Bloomberg News (full disclosure...I work for Bloomberg Radio part-time) that exactly echoes what I have been predicting about the New Hampshire Primary. Polling now shows that a majority of Independents will, indeed, take a Democratic ballot. This means that the Republican primary will be dominated by Conservatives. Good news for Romney, who is already leading in the polls here, or Fred Thompson, should he jump into the race. Bad news for Giuliani. It is also good news for Obama, I think, because I believe he is a more likable candidate than Clinton, and he has a more pure anti-war background regarding the Iraq War.

Jeff Jacoby, commenting on Jimmy Carter's recent description of the Bush Administration as "the worst ever", says Carter should "look in the mirror". Amen, Brother.

The Democratic leadership in the Senate admits defeat on the war-funding bill. The troops will get the resources they need, without a withdrawal deadline, assuming the bill passes.

Robert J. Samuelson has this piece on the changing news business in America.

Arnaud de Borchgrave has this column on the situation in the Middle East.

The Senate has put off action on the immigration bill. I guess they need time to read it, too.

Paul Kengor has this piece in the National Review about a live, television debate in 1967 between Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY) and Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA). I hope the video of the debate becomes available online. Here is the transcript.

In Lebanon, fighting continues between the army and a radical Islamist group that is based inside one of the Palestinian refugee camps. It is all part of "the darkest moment in Palestinian history". Meanwhile, Richard Cohen watches from Jordan, where a sense of unease prevails.

According to Simon Tisdall in the Guardian, American officials are telling him that the Iranians plan a Summer offensive, using their Shiite and Sunni proxies, against the Americans in Iraq. It is designed to pressure the U.S. into withdrawing from the country. But, as Stuart Rothenberg points out, President Bush has no incentive whatsoever to agree to a pull-out. David Ignatius believes, however, that there is discussion of a potential post-surge strategy.

Max Boot says Congress should give the Iraqi parliamentarians a break when criticising them for taking time off.

Bob Kerry tells his friends on the American Left that they need to realize, like it or not, that Iraq is the central front in the war against radical Islamist extremism.

An Army Major blasts his superiors, which probably means he is not counting on making it to LTC.

The Democrats have found a convenient political tool to combat charges that they do not support the troops. They are advocating a larger pay increase for the military, something the Bush Administration opposes. While the difference is only a matter of degree, as the administration also favors an increase, it should help the Democrats as a campaign issue.

Eleanor Clift has this piece on what she believes is a robust foreign policy that Democrats could campaign on and win. First, they won't campaign on it. Second, it doesn't matter. The Democrats will win if they run a candidate who promises to end the war in Iraq, as long as that candidate seems tough enough to aggressively defend the country.

Max Boot has an e-mail from an Army officer in Iraq. This officer believes we need to stay in Iraq at least until his 11-year-old son is old enough to serve. That sounds about right. At least six more years, perhaps ten. It won't happen, of course, despite the pleadings of people like Frederick Kagan, who hopes Americans will not abandon our Iraqi friends. History tells me that we will.

Here is some first-hand reporting from Iraq.

Rich Lowry thinks the Senate's immigration compromise is a bad deal.

Little Estonia under cyber assault from Russia. While damaging, it's not so bad as being under real assault.

Speaking of real assault, here is an article in the Washington Times about the clan violence that adds another layer of complexity to the deteriorating situation in Gaza.

Here in New Hampshire, an e-mailer has alerted me to the fact that registered sex offenders can live here anonymously (at least as far as their neighbors are concerned) so long as their crimes did not involve minors. Read about it in stories on the WBZ-TV website and the WMUR-TV website.

Israel allows a group of 500 U.S.-trained Fatah troops to cross into Gaza. Ah, the old maxim still applies, especially in the Middle East, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend".

Mexican troops battle a drug gang just south of the U.S. border.

Mickey Kaus has a round-up of views about the immigration compromise reached in the U.S. Senate. Kaus thinks the GOP has caved on the issue. I haven't read the particulars as of yet, so I am withholding judgement. I want real border enforcement, but I also don't think it is practical to hunt down and deport 12 million people. I'll post about this after I fully review the details.

Charles Krauthammer, on the impending anniversary of the Six Day War, explains why the Israelis are so reluctant to cede back the land they won in that war.

Michael Gerson sits down with Tony Blair, and gets a review of the outgoing Prime Minister's clear and logical foreign policy.

Mario Loyola write this piece about Lebanon on the National Review website. He believes they may be on the brink of civil war, again.

Are we abandoning our democratic allies in the Middle East? Yes. Soon to be followed by our abandonment of our allies in Iraq.

The Chicago Tribune has seen the light about Iran.

Howard Fineman notes that some Democrats want to revive the "Fairness Doctrine" for talk radio. I won't be surprised to see them try after a Democrats is elected President in 2008, and they may just have the votes to get is passed. I expect it will be nixed by the Supreme Court. If I am right about the first part and wrong about the second, won't that change the face of talk radio in America, and not for the better.

Ralph Peters has these thoughts about the "war czar".

According to this article in the New York Times, local Iraqis helped set up the ambush that resulted in those three soldiers going missing. Of course, locals are involved in nearly all the attacks, either as willing participants or bystanders who are unwilling to get involved to help our troops. This is to be expected in the kind of war we are fighting in Iraq. The only speedy solution is the most brutal one, but we are not going there, which is why I keep predicting our eventual withdrawal without having achieved victory.

Al Gore has a new book, and in this excerpt from Time Magazine, he decries the influence of television in our political process and the resultant assault on reason, as he sees it. Of course, some have said his views on global warming constitute just such an assault, but that's another matter.

A new survey shows all our top presidential candidates are wealthy. Gee, you think?

The Weekly Standard has for its cover story a piece on the subjection of Islamic women, and how that subjection is ignored by American feminists.

The New Hampshire State Senate President has endorsed Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for President. Despite the initial surge for Senator Obama, Senator Clinton seems to be getting all her ducks in a row.

As part of that process Senator Clinton (and Senator Obama) are now backing a bill that would mandate a troop withdrawal from Iraq on a set timetable. This is politically smart because it plays very well to the base of the Democratic Party and it is without consequence because both know that the bill will not pass. The real problem comes when they are faced with a vote to either keep funding the troops, without withdrawal language, or refuse to fund the troops and watch as President Bush uses the bully pulpit to blast them for abandoning our soldiers while they are still in harm's way.

Tony Blankley has some harsh words about the possibility that NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg might run as an independent candidate for President.

Pat Buchanan says if the GOP nominates Rudy Giuliani for President, it will cease to be the party of Reagan. Despite the polls (and the performance in last night's debate), I still can't believe that Giuliani will win the nomination.

Jonah Goldberg looks at a new poll which, if it is to be believed, says something about the lunacy of many Democrats in this country.

Some details about the incident which led to the deaths of four soldiers and, perhaps, the capture of three others in Iraq.

A prominent war critic loses a son in Iraq.

Jerry Falwell certainly did enough in his life to warrant this multi-page obituary in the New York Times.

Bernard Lewis wonders if Osama was right about the West.

Here is a story about missionaries come to spread the faith to the heathen...in Virginia.

A senior Taliban commander won't be coming down for breakfast. So far, despite the reporting of the MSM, it appears that the NATO forces in Afghanistan continue to have the upper hand. The Taliban have not, as of yet, been able to launch a big Spring offensive, which might be a clue as to how they have been degraded by on-going NATO operations.

Bowing to political pressure, the Bush Administration will open talks with Iran regarding security in Iraq. This would be a good idea if the Iranians shared our desire to stabilize Iraq, but they do not, so don't expect much to come out of all of this. I still firmly believe that the Iranian's goal in the area is to see the U.S. retreat from Iraq, humiliated and, presumably, less inclined to intervene in the future, which will leave the Iranians free to expand their power and influence.

Michael Yon comments on a letter sent out to all troops by General Petraeus in Iraq. Petraeus is calling on his troops to maintain high standards in terms of their behavior toward the Iraqis, all part of the "winning hearts and minds" school of thought about fighting a counter-insurgency war. I wish him luck. Unfortunately, I don't believe it will work. I think the only way to suppress the violence in Iraq is to be more violent and vicious than any enemy or group of enemies. This, of course, we will not (and should not) do. Therefore, we will not be able to succeed unless we are actively engaged for many years to come. This, of course, the American people will not do.

Roger L. Simon blasts PBS for refusing to air a documentary about Islam and the Islamists.

Thousands of U.S. and Iraqi troops continue to search for three missing American soldiers. An al Qaeda group claims to have "arrested" them. I am not optimistic about their fate.

Bob Novak reminisces about 50 years in Washington.

People are getting married later in life, and many are living together before they get married, which is helping to drive down the divorce rate, according to this article. I wonder, though, if part of the answer is the fact that so many young people watched their own parents get divorced and so are reluctant to put their own children through the experience.

Bob Novak thinks things look grim for the GOP in 2008. He is, of course, correct.

John Podhoretz knows the real reason why those moderate Republican congressmen went up to talk to the President about Iraq the other day.

Billions in oil missing in Iraq, while Dick Cheney stands on the deck of an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf and warns the Iranians to behave. Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah gunmen exchange rounds in Gaza while their children watch a Mickey Mouse knock-off indoctrinate them in Jew-hatred. Just another day in the Middle East.

Mort Kondracke says there is a Plan B for Iraq, and it isn't pretty.

Our system for choosing a President is coming unglued, and David Broder thinks the national parties need to fix it. I'm not quite sure how they could do that.

A group of moderate Republican congressman went to the White House yesterday and laid out the political facts of life for the President regarding the Iraq War. Basically, if the Iraq War is still going on much the way it has been going by November of 2008, most of those congressmen can start looking for new jobs. Which is why they need to see some progress soon, or they will stop supporting the President and join the Democrats in their efforts to end the war through the unilateral withdrawal of our troops, a withdrawal that one writer believes will cost us.

Victor Davis Hanson wishes the anti-war Democrats in Washington would be more honest about why they now oppose the war. Don't hold your breath.

A new poll puts Romney in the lead here in New Hampshire. I am skeptical. But, I have always believed that you should never put too much stock into any one poll. Look at all the polls together. If they all say the same thing, more or less, they are usually right, at least in terms of order of finish. Taken together, the polls here have McCain and Giuliani as the front-runners, with Romney doing well, and Fred Thompson showing up with some support without even campaigning (which is significant). If Thompson officially joins the race, expect the numbers to shift.

An interesting guest list for the State Dinner for the Queen at the White House.

Michael Barone examines the changing demography of the nation and how that can influence the nation's politics.

Fred Barnes says the Republicans and Democrats may have traded places.

Astronomers are excited about this piece of news.

Sarkozy is the winner in France. Mark Steyn wonders if the election will represent change, like Thatcher in 1979 did for Britain, or simply more of the same, like Angela Merkel's recent election in Germany.

Bob Novak writes that Fred Thompson's speech on Friday night was a let down.

The Multi-National Force in Iraq has launched its own You Tube site. I watched one video, and was interested to see in the comments some statements by folks who wrote that they were related to some of the soldiers in the video. The Iraq War must be the first war in history where family members can, from the comfort of their own homes, see their sons and daughters in combat. A mixed blessing, I suppose.

Francis Fukuyama says we should begin thinking about how to accomplish an orderly retreat from Iraq.

Marvin Kalb reminds us of a proposal for nine Presidential debates after the part nominations are secured. Meanwhile, the national parties are uneasy as the states throw a monkey wrench into the nominating process.

David Shribman has this piece about New Hampshire's leftward turn. He makes some good points. I agree that the actions of NH independents will determine the result of the primary. If independents fall in love with Obama, he can beat Clinton. If that happens, the GOP side will be more conservative. I had thought that would help McCain, but it is unclear as to who will win the hearts of conservatives as of yet. It might be Fred Thompson, but I wouldn't want to make a prediction at this time.

In France, will it be Sarkozy or ruin?

In Scotland, the Nationalists score big gains.

Gordon Gekko will be back.

George Mitchell wants to talk to some MLB players about steroids.

I flew on Delta on Thursday, which was the day they came out of bankruptcy. A complimentary glass of champagne was served, which was nice. Meanwhile, they are throwing themselves a coming out party. I fly with them on a regular basis, and I wish them good luck.

Two Prime Ministers are on their way out, Tony Blair and Ehud Ohlmert, although only Blair seems to accept reality.

Edward Luttwak says we should ignore the Middle East. Tony Blankley says we should not discount the rising tide of hostility within the Islamic world.

Richard Holbrooke remembers David Halberstam.

The leader of the Right in France is asking his supporters to sit out the Presidential run-off. Nicholas Sarkozy, who is the more rightist of the two finalists, is leading in the polls.

Tom Poston has died. A very talented and funny man.

William F. Buckley has an excellent column which crystallizes what I am sure a lot of us are thinking when we ponder the political implications of the Iraq War. In a nutshell, the GOP is in trouble. The American people do not like limited wars without clearly defined (and simply achievable) victory conditions. When they conclude that we are not going to fight all-out to achieve a traditional victory (after the Chinese intervention in Korea in December 1950, and after the Tet Offensive in Vietnam in January 1968, to use two examples) they turn against the war in ever larger numbers. In Iraq, it seemed as if we had achieved a traditional victory after only three weeks of war. But, as the insurgency grew, it became more and more apparent that there was no way to limit the violence to the extent that it would allow our withdrawal. This has created an image of endless war with no way out, which is why the poll numbers have turned sharply against the war. Buckley is right in that he senses an electoral debacle for the GOP when voters have another opportunity to express their hatred of this war.

Major Owen West has this op-ed in the New York Times that describes the disconnect between the military situation in Iraq and the political situation here in the United States. West correctly identifies the paradox that is taking shape whereby as the military situation improves, due to the implementation of a proper counter-insurgency strategy and the growing capability of the Iraqi Army, the American domestic political situation deteriorates as the public grows ever more weary of the war and its cost. Major West is also correct when he writes that we will need American troops in Iraq for a decade to help them bring stability to the country. Unfortunately, the American people do not have that kind of patience.

Bill Roggio has the latest from Iraq.

In Israel, a new report about their lost war against Hezbollah is drawing attention, including this piece from John Podhoretz.

Christopher Hitchens slams George Tenet.

Here is an interesting piece in the Weekly Standard that links the availability of state-sponsored old-age pensions with falling fertility rates. Since these programs are pay-as-you-go, which requires younger workers to pay for retirees, it is a prescription for disaster.