NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ANALYSIS

So, now that the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is in the books, it's time to take a look at what happened, and why, as best as we can tell with the data we have.

First, since this is my blog, a look at my primary predictions. On turnout, following Secretary of State Bill Gardner's lead, I predicted a huge turnout. Bill Gardner is hardly ever wrong about these things, so I felt pretty safe. I was right to follow his lead. With 96% of precincts reporting, 279,276 voters went into the Democratic primary and 228,531 went into the GOP primary for a total of 507,807. The final total will be a bit more, as those last ballots are counted. Score one for Gardner (and for me).

On the GOP side I predicted McCain 35%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 17%, Paul 10% and Giuliani 7%. The actual results, with 96% reporting, are McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9% and Paul with 8%. I nailed the order for the first three (as did most everyone else) and got the McCain-Romney five-point spread correct. I over-estimated Mike Huckabee's Iowa bounce.

On the Democratic side, like just about everyone else, I blew it. But, in the words of the poet Meatloaf, "two out of three ain't bad". When I calculated the raw numbers to come up with the percentages I posted the other day, I nailed Democratic turnout and the number of votes the winner would get, but I had the wrong person getting to 110,000 votes, it was Hillary, not Obama.

So, why did Hillary win? Jay Cost breaks down the numbers, but the essential fact to know, and which I quickly discerned early in the evening when I started to see the town-by-town numbers, is that Hillary beat Obama with traditional, dyed-in-the-wool New Hampshire Democrats. Middle and lower income, union household, working man and woman, older, high school educated voters. Obama won the upper income, college educated, younger voters. Hillary won places like Manchester, Nashua and Salem, while Obama won Portsmouth, Amherst and Keene.

So, what now? On the GOP side, Mitt Romney is on life support. After spending a ton of money on Iowa and New Hampshire, and finishing second in both, he needs to get a win (sorry, Wyoming, you just don't cut it for purposes of this race). If he loses in Michigan, where his father was Governor, then it's lights out. Although he did poorly here, Huckabee still managed a third place finish. He needs to win in South Carolina, where he is leading in the polls, and then he can be poised to do very well in Florida. McCain has a lot of momentum coming out of the Granite State, but he needs to prove that he is more than just our favorite son. A win in Michigan would serve that purpose, as well as finishing off Romney. Follow up with a win in Nevada and a win or second place in Florida, and McCain can roar into Super-Duper Tuesday with the chance to become the inevitable nominee. If, however, Romney wins in Michigan, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, Romney or Huckabee wins in Nevada, then Giuliani can make a case that McCain can't get it done, opening the door for the former New York City Mayor to win in Florida (where he is campaigning hard to achieve just that result). This race could go all the way to the convention with at least two, and probably three viable candidates.

On the Democratic side, just hours after wondering if she needed to fire some of her campaign staff and considering a strategy of just skipping Nevada, now Hillary has some much needed momentum. Her people should see that she won with the traditional Democratic coalition of voters, although she may not be able to count on many African-American votes, as I suspect that, despite the narrow loss in New Hampshire, many of those folks have been inspired by Obama and now are willing to back him. Thus, Hillary's path to victory is to run hard for those voters (African-Americans excepted). She needs to see Edwards drop out, as he is competing for the same folks. Meanwhile, Obama should continue to do very well with the upper income Liberal crowd, as well as African-Americans. That means this race could also very well go all the way to the convention.

Bottom line? The fun is just beginning.