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Saturday, January 12, 2008

Real L.A. police officer Jack Dunphy, who writes for National Review, sings the praises of the best show on television (an assessment I share), HBO's The Wire. If you subscribe to HBO, it's one show you should not miss.

New Hampshire officials agree to a recount of the primary results. Don't expect much change in the results, despite all the Internet rumors about fraud (expect such rumors to swirl around every election now going forward, whether based in fact or not). Meanwhile, John Distaso has this analysis and defense of the primary, which will certainly be challenged by those jealous of its place as we approach the next one in 2012.

The activities of those Iranian speedboats the other day in the Straits of Hormuz are an echo of a successful strategy employed by a U.S. Marine Corps general during war games in 2002. The American Marine general led the attacking force in a stunning victory over the U.S. Navy, until the Navy ordered the games run again, resulting in a reversal of the result. Students of military history were not surprised by this (I remember reading the story when it first came out), as this is a pattern that repeats itself inside the military establishments of all powerful nations, fed by conceit and complacency. I hope the Navy takes a second look at the real results of those games, because it is just possible that the Iranians employ some smart people themselves who may figure out similar tactics on their own. Certainly, the Army and Marine Corps have learned some grim lessons fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan that have caused them to re-write their doctrines. Let's hope the Navy doesn't have to lose some very expensive ships to learn similar lessons.

If you are not a fan of Hillary Clinton, then this story should fill your heart with glee, as the Clintons face a potential backlash from African-Americans as they try to grapple with the Obama phenomenon.

If, like me, you travel by air regularly, and you need to show a state-issued driver's license to go through security, this story should interest you.

Another third party effort fizzles.

In Michigan, John McCain vaults ahead of Mitt Romney, according to this new poll. That's bad news for Mitt, who faces elimination if he loses in Michigan. Meanwhile, McCain vaults ahead of Giuliani in Florida, according to this new poll. That's bad news for Giuliani, who faces elimination if he can't win in Florida. More and more, it looks like this will be a race between Huckabee and McCain, with McCain in the position of advantage (in my opinion, at least). My guess is that Romney will drop out after losing in Michigan, Thompson will drop out after losing in South Carolina, and Giuliani will drop out after Super-Duper Tuesday, having lost in Florida and then not winning a single state on Feb. 5. If McCain and Huckabee trade states evenly that day, then we could go all the way to the convention. But if McCain can win a majority of those states, then he will probably be able to ride the wave to secure the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton in the South Carolina polls, while Clinton leads Obama in the Florida polls. This really is shaping up as a race that could go all the way to the convention.

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