The leak of classified documents from the State Department by WikiLeaks is cause for a great deal of comment...

What can be done?

The founder of WikiLeaks is not trying to expose evil, he just wants to hurt the United States.

Certainly the leak is powerful evidence about basic incompetence when it comes to information security in the U.S. government.

I think the U.S. soldier who downloaded the information and passed it on to WikiLeaks, if convicted, ought to be hanged.

I think the founder and leader of WikiLeaks should be captured, brought to the U.S., tried, convicted, and hanged.

I think the people who developed and maintained the pathetic security procedures that allowed a low-level stiff to steal the information should be rounded up, tried for their incompetence, and given stiff prison terms.

I think that none of the above will happen. Since it will not happen, I expect we will continue to face this kind of nonsense, further weakening the country.

Speaking of things that are weakening the country, Mort Zuckerman writes about deficits, debt, and a double-dip recession.

A brief bond market rally following the announcement of another bailout for Ireland begins to fade.

Kevin D. Williamson writes about the Irish bailout and the reckoning to come.

Robert J. Samuelson has some thoughts on the European situation.

Paul Krugman looks at how the Euro now holds Spain as its prisoner.

Michael Barone takes a look at the fiscal problems facing the states here at home, and says we should pass a law allowing them to go bankrupt. I think this will happen, since the only way to get out of the mess they are in is to allow them to rip up their public employee contracts and renege on their pension obligations.

Martin Feldstein has some ideas on how we can cut the federal deficit.

What do all of these stories have in common? Each represents a tale of hubris, in this case by public officials in European capitols, Washington, DC and our state capitols. We have seen similar hubristic behavior lead to the downfall of private businesses (Enron, Lehman Brothers). Of course, governments will not simply disappear (unless we have revolutions, wars, or civil wars). But they will eventually run out of options, as they require money from the private economy in order to function, and they can only get that through taxation or via borrowing, which means the bond markets.

My predictions? I expect the Irish people will repudiate their current leaders at the polls. It will not make any difference, of course, since the new government will still need to tax and borrow, but they may decide to get out of the Euro, or default on their debt. Portugal is next, followed by Spain and Italy. The German people will repudiate any government that keeps bailing these folks out, so I expect either the collapse of the Eurozone entirely, or a significant shrinking of the zone.

China and Russia will no longer use the dollar for trade goods between the two countries. I'm not sure if this has any global economic significance.

Netflix is now a powerful force in the movie and TV business. As a subscriber, I love it.

Some more analysis of the 2010 Republican sweep.

Stephen Hayes writes about the sixty-years war in Korea.

A day of reckoning nears for the Eurozone as investors continue to vote with their feet by fleeing from the bonds issued by nations like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Meanwhile, the Spanish Prime Minister blasts bond investors for lacking confidence in his country, the Euro takes a pounding, and German officials express skepticism about another round of bailouts. The Germans have good reason to be fearful, as the costs of these bailouts may start to impact the credit standing of Germany itself. Here is more on the German side of the equation.

In Ireland, a local election seems to indicate that the mood of the public has turned against the ruling party. Here is an analysis of Irish party politics for those wishing to understand more about the situation on the Emerald Isle. As I understand it, the big issue now is their austerity budget. If it passes (on December 7, of all days), then the first crisis will pass. If not, the bond markets will pound not only Ireland, but also the other European countries on the edge. The currency markets will pound the Euro, as well.

Here is the Wall St. Journal article on the financial mess in Europe.

Paul Krugman slams the Irish government for using tax revenues to bolster their bankers in the first place.

One British newspaper is now calling for the U.K. to get out of the European Union.

Finally, lest we get too smug about all of this, here is an article by a former governor of the Federal Reserve Board who points out the fiscal trap facing the United States of America.

Sarah Palin is on a book tour, making a lot of money, giving a lot of speeches, and all of that leads many to conclude that she will run for President. I'm not so sure. After all, she has not come to visit us here in New Hampshire since the last campaign, which is unusual for anyone thinking about making the run for the Oval Office. I also think she realizes that she can make a whole lot more money by staying out of the race, but can maintain a high level of popularity which will allow her to have a voice in the political discussion.

President Obama has decided to send an aircraft carrier battle group to Korea in response to the latest North Korean provocation.

Peter Brookes writes about the situation in Korea.

The GOP wins another House seat. There are now only two seats left outstanding, one in New York and the other in California.

Doctors continue to be unhappy with Medicare cuts, with good reason.

Things are getting hot on the Korean peninsula. North Korean forces launch an artillery barrage against a South Korean island in the Yellow Sea. More here, here, here, and here. The U.S. Embassy in Seoul, South Korea issues a statement. So, what is going on? This is purely speculation, of course, but I think this is part of a strategy by Kim Jong-Il to solidify his plan for the succession of his son, Kim Jong-Un to the role of top man in the regime. Last week they allowed a U.S. scientist access to a brand new nuclear enrichment facility, now they ratchet up the tensions with South Korea by launching an artillery barrage. Clearly, they are telling us that they will continue to pose a significant problem for us unless and until we get back to the negotiating table. Once there, we will soon be required to cough up some serious cash to keep things quiet. It's extortion, pure and simple, but the Kim Family Regime knows it works, so why change strategies now?

It appears to some that we have no good options concerning North Korea.

New elections will be needed in Ireland as the Green Party walks out of the coalition government. This is all happening, of course, because of the collapse of the Irish economy and the need for EU/IMF bailouts which are contingent upon the implementation of severe austerity plans. Ireland and Greece are the canaries in the coal mine. We will see whether or not bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, in this case, the European Central Bank (ECB) combined with government austerity programs will convince international investors that it makes sense to continue to loan these countries money at some kind of reasonable interest rate. If it works, then the Eurozone will retain some stability. But, will it work? Will Irish voters elect a new government that maintains the austerity plans in place? If not, then what? Lots of questions, not many answers.

Will Portugal be next?

How about the U.S.?

Victor Davis Hanson reminds us that despite the need for fiscal austerity here at home to reduce the annual deficits, we should be wary of cutting defense spending.

John Bolton blasts the foreign policy failures of President Obama.

It appears a Taliban leader that was in peace negotiations with the government of Afghanistan was actually a fake. Why would someone pose as a Taliban leader? He may have been a con man looking to get paid (which he did). The more likely scenario is that he was an agent of the Pakistani ISI.

Jay Cost examines a recently stated argument concerning whether or not the U.S. electorate is becoming more conservative.

Obama's job approval rating hits a new low.

A new poll shows support for the Tea Party movement is growing.

Another close House race ends with the Republican on top. There are now only four seats still undecided, two in New York and two in California.

It seems that for some wealthy folks facing terminal illness it makes more sense to die in 2010 than to live to see the new year. People really do make decisions based on tax policy, even life-and-death decisions.

John Podhoretz writes about a crisis within liberalism. Essentially, he expects a primary opponent for President Obama in 2012.

Perhaps part of the problem is the cult of Obama, as he is surrounded by worshipers, for one, and seems unable to understand the need to pivot with circumstances, as Bill Clinton did after 1994.

Phillip Longman writes about the global demographic crisis of a fast-growing population of old folks.

Ireland accepts a European bailout. Hard to believe they were once known as the Celtic Tiger. Perhaps Paradise Lost is a better description. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes Portugal is next on the bailout hit parade.

William Voegeli writes about the failure of our political leaders to adequately address the debt and deficit crisis facing the United States.

Paul Krugman continues to believe the crisis is more about the evils of Republicans than the evils of spending money we don't have.

Robert Samuelson, as he does on so many occasions, points out the relentless numbers and the delusions of both Right and Left concerning government spending and taxes. Some politicians are delusional, but most understand the gravity of the problem. They simply are unaware of any way to get around the political facts of life. Simply stated, the entitlement programs, mainly Social Security and Medicare, are the most popular programs in the country. Any effort to substantially cut spending on these programs is political suicide. Without cuts to these programs, we cannot solve the problem unless we are willing to gut defense spending, gut discretionary spending, and substantially raise taxes. Any effort to do all of those things will result in political suicide.

Is single payer health care doomed in Canada?

When my mother graduated from high school in 1945 she went to Washington, DC to work as a clerk typist at the Navy Department. World War II was still going on, so she was housed in a dormitory along with dozens of other young women from around the country also working for the department. She remembers that when she told the other girls she was from Massachusetts, they would say, "Oh, Massachusetts. The most corrupt state in the nation." Well, it's always nice to know that some things never change.

Brian McGrory has that same feeling.

Rich Lowry writes about Eric Holder's fiasco. Attorney General Holder, and President Obama, are either blinded by their ideological belief that terrorism should be dealt with as a criminal justice matter, rather than as a matter of war fighting, or they are politically beholden to those that hold those beliefs, which prevents them from embracing the Bush strategy regarding captured terrorists. I actually think the latter may be closer to the truth, as the President seems likely to keep the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay open, and Holder has already said we will keep holding these terrorists regardless of how their criminal proceedings turn out.

Arthur Herman is critical of the decision to allow the Russians back into Afghanistan. The decision is driven by the desire to get out of this war which is held by most, if not all, of the political leaders of the NATO countries currently participating in the action.

Meanwhile, General Petraeus has authorized the Marines to use tanks against the Taliban. This is a long overdue decision, and should help in the short term, but for a lasting victory we still need the political will to stay as long as it takes.

Paul Krugman thinks the critics of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing program represent an axis of depression. He believes the Chinese and the Germans want to protect their export driven economies, which I think is right, and the GOP wants to keep the economy down in the short term to help defeat Obama in 2012. Some Republicans may want that, but if they do then they are misguided. A poor economy in 2012 might simply switch independents against the GOP, as they went against the Democrats earlier this month.

Three Democratic U.S. Senators face daunting reelection prospects in 2012. If the Republicans have a good candidate at the top of the ticket, and the President's job approval remains weak, it will be a tough election for Democrats all around.

Pat Buchanan says the Tea Party folks are just as much social conservatives as they are fiscal conservatives. Partly true, I think, but Tea party folks should continue to concentrate on economic and fiscal issues if they want to assure themselves of the widest possible base of support.

Fred Barnes writes about how Alabama has thoroughly repudiated the Democratic party.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says the truth is beginning to dawn on Europe's leaders that the "European Experiment" is beginning to collapse.

Lisa Murkowski is the winner in Alaska. She is the first write-in candidate to win a Senate seat in more than 50 years. Joe Miller is still contemplating possible legal challenges. It is a loss for Tea Party backers, and for Sarah Palin, but since Murkowski is still ostensibly a Republican, it may not be a loss for the GOP, unless she decides to switch parties.

More people are dropping cable TV here in the U.S., as Internet services like Hulu and Netflix see their businesses grow. I am a Netflix subscriber, and love it. We will not drop our cable service, but we might get rid of the premium channels (except sports, I just can't get enough of the NFL Red Zone on Sundays).

Some moron has decided that we have "feminized" the Medal of Honor. He gets blasted with the facts here, here and here.

Victor Davis Hanson says President Obama needs to get over his fixation with George W. Bush.

Meanwhile, in the place Hanson calls home, the beautiful state of California, new numbers show a widening budget deficit.

General Motors has a stock offering, and taxpayers get a return on their "investment". We now own only about 25% of the company, down from 60%.

A terrorist is acquitted on almost all the charges against him in the bombing of a couple of American embassies in Africa in the late 1990s. Just another example of why these people should not be tried in civilian courts.

George Will says the Federal Reserve is saddled with a dual mission impossible.

Low tax states will gain congressional seats, while high tax states will lose them.

Nearly 40% of Americans believe marriage is obsolete. Clearly, marriage is on the wane in Western societies. So is childbearing and rearing. A troubling set of trends.

Michael Tanner correctly points out that the Republican leadership is unwilling, so far at least, to speak truthfully about what needs to be done in order to close our enormous budget deficits. It appears that the GOP leaders will not touch Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or Defense. They will not accept any tax increases. Under those conditions, unless we have a spurt of enormous economic growth, we will continue to run massive deficits, add to our gigantic pile of debt, and face an even more difficult situation in the future.

Warren Buffett pens a thank you letter to Uncle Sam for bailing out our financial system in late 2008.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick says he will work to change immigration laws in his state.

More financial troubles in Europe. In Greece, it appears their deficit is much larger than previously thought. In Ireland, officials continue to be reluctant about accepting another EU sponsored bailout. In Portugal, there are fears that the problems in Ireland and Greece could ripple outward and impact that country as well. This episode points out the most obvious difficulty when disparate nations all accept a common currency. There are now real questions about whether or not the Euro can survive in its present form. Will the Eurozone shrink as some countries, like Greece, decide to get out of the currency, or are kicked out? Will the Euro survive at all?

Of course, as Americans we could retain a certain smugness about all of this, except for the fact that at least the various governments of Europe are attempting to come to grips with their deficit spending, while our government continues to go in the wrong direction.

Ireland is in a financial mess, and the EU looks at a possible bailout. Irish leaders are reluctant to accept a bailout, perhaps out of wishful thinking. In the end, the bond market will decide.

Daniel J. Mitchell says the world is getting nervous over President Obama's economic prescriptions. Leaders in Germany and the U.K. are following a different path, and the Chinese see another opportunity to knock us down a peg.

Paul Krugman, on the other hand, thinks the real problem with the President is that he is not willing to fight for his beliefs. Liberal ideologues simply cannot accept that there economic prescriptions are wrong and don't work.

Ross Douthat believes that it is the Democrats that are the "party of no" when it comes to deficit reduction.

Robert J. Samuelson believes we can learn a lesson from the ongoing economic stagnation in Japan. Japan is dying. Unless there is a new birth of Japanese identity which would cause young Japanese women to desire marriage and children on a significant scale, there will be no more Japanese by 2100, at least not in Japan.

Markos Moulitsas believes John Boehner will fail and the Democratic base will turn out in 2012. He might be right. If he is, then government will continue to grow. Another liberal thinks the President should fight even harder for his policies in the wake of the election defeat. I suspect he will do just that.

George Will describes the creative destruction of capitalism.

Arthur Herman believes the U.S. Marine Corps faces an uncertain future.

Michael Goodwin thinks President Obama will have to face up to the threat from Iran, sooner or later.

Jay Cost examines the election results, starting with the South.

Jonathan V. Last does not think President Obama has much of a chance at winning a second term. Certainly, if the unemployment numbers remain high, he will face a tough climate. But much depends on who the Republicans nominate.

At the moment, Republicans have gained 61 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, but there are still a number of contests that are being decided as votes are counted, which could give the Republicans a few more victories.

There are rumors flying around that incoming West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is being courted by the Republicans in an attempt to get him to switch parties. I doubt that it will happen, not because Manchin is not conservative enough to be a Republican, her certainly is, but because the Democrats have the majority, and I suspect he will want to work inside the majority, at least initially. If he feels unable to get things done, he might consider the possibility later on.

Is incoming Republican Senator Rand Paul already selling out on the issue of earmarks? I think he will soon understand that not all earmarks are bad, but the process of passing them needs reforming. Besides, if he really wants to address the deficit and debt, he needs to focus on entitlements.

David Brooks has one vision of where we are as a nation, Bob Herbert has another. The optimism that Brooks provides, as opposed to the pessimism of Herbert, is one good reason why conservatives have an advantage over liberals in winning elections.

Liberals in the Democratic Party are blaming the so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats for their defeat. They are wrong. This, of course, is another reason why Democrats will lose the next election.

The head man at the World Bank calls for a new world financial order in this column which lists his ideas that would reform Bretton Woods II, including a return to some form of international gold standard.

If this blogger is right, and his labor statistics seem pretty compelling, then we will not get out of this period of high unemployment for many years. That will probably mean a new President in 2013.

Irish debt continues to be a problem for Europe. Greek election results don't make me feel any better, despite the spin put on them by the Prime Minister of the country.

Robert J. Samuelson explains why the Chinese continue to follow mercantilist policies, and why that bodes ill for any global, cooperative effort to return to growth and stability.

Victor Davis Hanson is still worried, despite the GOP victories. Those victories were deep and broad, according to Michael Barone.

Toby Harnden says President Obama will not be able to pivot to the center as Bill Clinton did after the 1994 mid-term election.

George Will says the President and the Democrats remain in denial.

Jay Cost explains why Nancy Pelosi can realistically remain as the Democratic leader in the House through an examination of the electoral base of her party.

Bill Kristol is perfectly happy to see Pelosi continue in her post, as it will allow the GOP to run against the Obama-Reid-Pelosi leadership team once again in 2012.

Many things can happen between now and November, 2012. But, if unemployment remains high, economic growth remains slow, and our debt and deficit position continues to deteriorate, it will be extremely difficult for President Obama to make the case for a second term. Candidates matter, of course, as we saw in Delaware and Nevada. The GOP will need a nominee who can make himself (or herself) acceptable to the independent voters of the country, as Reagan did in 1980, despite all the efforts of the press to label him as an extremist. Let the contest begin!

One of the most significant consequences of the election on Tuesday was the historic gain by the GOP of state legislative seats. The Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures across the country, which is a modern record. The GOP now has unified control of 26 state legislatures. These legislatures will be responsible for redistricting based on the 2010 census numbers. That will help Republicans keep control of the House for years to come.

Here is how liberal columnist Harold Meyerson analyzes the election results. Here is how conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer views the same results.

Jonathan Chait tells Democrats they ought to cheer up, things will improve. He is right, of course. The Democrats still did very well with the youth vote, African-Americans, Hispanics, people with college degrees (especially advanced degrees), and white people in union households. But the youth vote didn't turn out much (as I expected), and the Democrats lost heavily with white, working and middle class voters.

This leads to Ron Brownstein's piece about how the Democrats lost the heartland.

So, what is the bottom line? In 2012, we can expect a much larger turnout by young voters, which will help the Democrats. But, if the President is still unpopular, especially with white, middle and working class voters, he will have a hard time getting the electoral votes necessary to win, as the map will revert to the 2004 election with the President winning the Northeast and the Pacific coast, but losing most of the rest.

In an effort to jump start the economy, the Federal Reserve is buying $600 billion worth of long-term Treasury notes. This is a way to add liquidity to the market, infusing money into the system without actually printing more, thus lowering interest rates and driving down the value of the dollar. Theoretically, this will provide an incentive for more business investment, more home and car buying, and provide some forward momentum for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately, the effort is provoking an international backlash. The Chinese are being especially critical. Could we be seeing the beginning of the kind of international economic warfare that happened in the early 1930s and led to making the Great Depression even more severe and protracted? Worse, could we see those negative results without any positive ones?

A Conservative Member of the European Parliament says it is morning in America once again.

Victor Davis Hanson says America has just awakened from its spending binge, and has checked into rehab.

Our neighbors in Maine, despite the fact that they sent two Democrats back to Congress, decided to elect a GOP Governor, and put Republican majorities in both houses of their legislature.

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann says triangulation is not an option for the President.

That won't matter, of course, because unlike President Clinton, who successfully triangulated from 1994 to 1996 and won reelection, President Obama still believes his way is the best way.

Kathleen Parker agrees that the President and his people were blind to what was about to happen, and are still blind to it.

George Will says Americans are rejecting liberalism.

The New York Times believes a nefarious plan concocted by Karl Rove and funded by corporate interests was the reason why the GOP did so well on Tuesday. This is what the liberals really believe, and I think the President also believes it. That is why they will fail in 2012 (unless the GOP in Congress really screws up, or they nominate a weak candidate). They do not yet realize that white, working and middle class Americans (and some Asians, Hispanics and others) do not want a European-style social democracy in this country, and are fleeing from the Democratic Party because they think the party is building an unsustainable, intrusive government.

Roger Simon wonders if Howard Dean could beat Obama in a Democratic primary race in 2012. I do not believe the President will face a significant primary challenge from Dean or anyone else in 2012.

Democrats in Congress seem to agree on one thing, though, which is that the election debacle is the fault of the President and his advisers.

The Republican surge hit statehouses all over the country on Tuesday. Jay Cost breaks it down.

The Union Leader provides a link to all the official results from the election in New Hampshire. Democratic Governor John Lynch will face veto-proof Republican majorities in both houses of the state legislature and an Executive Council without a single Democrat.

Michael Barone has some thoughts on the election.

Fred Barnes has some thoughts on the Republican landslide.

Bill Kristol ponders some of the immediate implications of the change in Congress.

A NIGHT TO REMEMBER

It was a night to remember. The Republicans are poised to pick up at least 60 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate (very close to my pre-election prediction of 60 and 8). This is a stunning repudiation of the Democrats and the President. The only reason the Republicans did not get even closer to taking the Senate is because they nominated some very poor candidates in several states.

Perhaps just as important for the GOP is how well they did in the states. In the various races for state gubernatorial offices, the Republicans are looking at at a net gain of 8 to perhaps 10 seats, including the big states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. The only real big loss is California, which is very big, of course, but not unexpected. They also flipped some state legislatures, including New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alabama and Wisconsin. These new Republican governors and state legislatures will be in charge of redistricting, which will have significant consequences going forward for control of the U.S. House.

Here in New Hampshire, it was a massive wipeout for the Democrats. Only Governor Lynch could stand the tsunami as he defeated John Stephen. In the 1st CD, Frank Guinta blasted Carol Shea-Porter out of her seat, and in the 2nd CD Charlie Bass eked out a narrow victory over Annie Kuster (as I thought he would). As everyone predicted, Kelly Ayotte wiped the floor with Paul Hodes for the U.S. Senate seat.

But it is further down the ballot where the really eye-popping results can be found. The GOP will now hold all five Executive Council seats (an important body in NH state government), having taken three away from the Democrats. They could also wind up with 21 of the 24 State Senate seats and a huge majority in the State House of Representatives. Governor Lynch will probably face a veto-proof Republican majority in the State Legislature. Amazing, truly amazing.

Over the next few days I will continue to crunch the numbers, but some preliminary conclusions are in order.

First, this was a "punish the Democrats" election. Polls continue to show the GOP no more popular than the Democrats (in fact, most polls show the Republicans even less popular). The Republicans won because their base was fired up, and independents broke sharply their way.

Second, this was not just about the bad economy, although that was a big factor. This was about bailouts. Ordinary Americans simply could not abide the thought that their tax money was being used to shield foolish people from the consequences of their poor decisions. Why should fat cat bankers get my tax money because they made stupid loans? Why should the guy down the street who bought a house he couldn't afford get help paying his mortgage when I was prudent, can pay my mortgage, and get no help whatsoever? Why should stupid auto company executives get my tax money? Ford didn't need it, why should GM get it? This is the anger that saw independents jump on the GOP bandwagon.

Third, this is about healthcare. Americans do not like the third man in the room dictating their medical care. Right now that third man is, for most, the private insurance company chosen by their employer. Americans don't like it, but have learned to live with it. Now, they see the possibility that the government will be that third man for everyone, not just the poor and the elderly. Add to that the government ordering us to by a product we may not feel we need, and you get resentment.

Finally, this is about debt and deficits. Americans see how getting into debt has wrecked their own personal finances, or those of their family or neighbors. They cannot see why their state and federal governments should get into unsustainable debt.

It will be fascinating to see how President Obama addresses these issues. If he successfully assures the independents that he gets the message, he will be in a strong position to win re-election in 2012. If not, he will surely be remembered as a failed, one-term President.

ELECTION DAY IS HERE, SO VOTE

Finally, all the bloviating, all the punditry, all the analysis, the robocalls, the negative ads, the direct mail pieces stuffing the mailbox, all of it is over. Time now for only one more thing...go out and vote. Do it because it is your privilege and your duty, not your right. It is your privilege because it was purchased for you by the lives, fortunes and sacred honor of many millions who came before you.

We honor men like George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Benjamin Franklin and the other men who led this country into independence when we vote. But we also honor all the men who struggled, suffered and died to achieve that independence at places like Valley Forge, Lexington and Concord, Bunker Hill, Saratoga and Yorktown. We honor the women who suffered with them, and the children who would grow up without fathers. We honor those who fought to sustain the gains of the Revolution in 1812, and who fought to sustain the country in the Civil War. We honor those who fought and suffered to defeat the great enemies of freedom in the 20th Century, and those who serve us even today.

We have a duty to vote, to participate, even when our leaders seem lost, clueless, or corrupt. We owe it to ourselves, and we owe it to those who gave their last full measure of devotion to this country, our country, the United States of America.

GALLUP PREDICTS MASSIVE GOP WIN

What poll has consistently been the most accurate poll leading into a mid-term election, looking at all mid-terms since 1994? According to Jay Cost, it is the Gallup generic ballot poll. Cost compares the Gallup poll to other polls in this morning's piece. Cost shows that most polls skew in favor of the Democrats when comparing their final predicted results with the actual results, but Gallup is the closest to the actual results (except in 1998).

So, what does the Gallup generic ballot poll say about the election tomorrow? It says the Republicans lead in the likely voter, 45% turnout scenario by a whopping 55% to 40%. If this number is anywhere close to being accurate, it means the Republicans will win far more than the 39 seats needed to take over the House and, in fact, will in all probability win more than 60 seats. It also increases the likelihood that they will win the ten seats needed to take the Senate, as well, despite the polling data that would seem to indicate 8 or 9 is the best they can do.

Therefore, unless all the pollsters, including Gallup, are overestimating Republican turnout by a wide margin, and overestimating the general Republican preference of independent voters by a wide margin, and/or underestimating Democratic turnout by a wide margin, then we can expect an enormous Republican victory tomorrow, perhaps on a scale not seen in over 80 years.