Mario Loyola believes the seizure of those British sailors and marines by the Iranians is simply a smokescreen designed to fend off a military strike by the United States. Loyola believes such a strike is absolutely necessary to prevent the Iranian government from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, the Iranians continue to turn up the volume on the stand-off by parading the captured Brits in front of the TV cameras. Clearly, the Iranians understand that they are playing to the anti-war public in the U.K., Europe and the United States. That would explain the content of the letters from the female captive.

Dick Morris says there is a legislative way to stand up to the Iranians.

One German takes his countrymen to task for their reflexive anti-Americanism, which was highlighted by a recent poll in which a majority of Germans said the U.S. was a more dangerous country than Iran.

In Iraq, Moqtada al-Sadr had a speech read for him during Friday prayers in which he condemns the continued U.S. "occupation" of his country. The radical Shiite cleric went into hiding when the recent U.S. troop surge began. Some say he is in Iran, while his supporters say he remains in Iraq. The speech also calls for a massive demonstration in the coming days, and it was accompanied by a greater visibility for his Mahdi Army. I suspect this is part of the Iranians campaign to ratchet up the pressure against the U.S. to try and ward off the attack that they expect is coming (a belief that was, no doubt, bolstered by word that an additional U.S. carrier battle group was headed toward the Persian Gulf).

In Israel, the Prime Minister rejects any possible "right of return" for Palestinian refugees in response to a peace plan the Arab nations are pushing.

In Russia, a supporter of President Putin urges a constitutional amendment that would allow him to continue serving as President.

Popular Mechanics has this response to the ravings of Rosie O'Donnell.

Victor Davis Hanson correctly points out that, even if the British (or other European nations) wanted to do something militarily about Iran in response to their hostage taking, they would be unable to do so without American help.

Check out Rosie O'Donnell in this video.

Ralph Peters says the actions of the Democrats in Congress regarding Iraq invited the Iranians to take British hostages.

Max Hastings says negotiations, not confrontation, is the way to deal with Iran.

Here is the only column I have seen, so far, from a U.K. newspaper that mentions the possibility of war with Iran.

Militiamen, who some say have been trained in Iran, are trickling back into Sadr City.

One retired General says the Army is headed for collapse.

While the release of that female British sailor is being delayed until the British government changes its "incorrect attitude" (which I believe to mean that they have been unwilling to submit to Iranian demands), the debate goes on.

Gerard Baker believes the British government is doing the right thing, so far.

Timothy Garton Ash says if the Europeans were really united, as their elites so fervently desire, then perhaps they could collectively do something to help force the release of the captive Europeans. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for such an outcome if I were him. I expect that the attitude of many Europeans is that shared by most of the commenters who posted at the end of the Ash article, which is that the British sailors and Marines deserve their fate for being part of an immoral and illegal U.S./British action in Iraq. Of course, in that view they have an ally in the King of Saudi Arabia.

Fred Thompson says there is a link between this hostage incident and the on-going mothballing of the once proud Royal Navy.

In Iraq, continued sectarian violence will, I believe, maintain the domestic political pressure that will make a U.S. withdrawal almost certain by 2009 (as I suspect the Democrats will do well in November of 2008). Victor Davis Hanson says a withdrawal from Iraq will not end the war. He is right. While it will end our involvement in Iraq, the wider war will go on, and it will get bigger, not smaller, as a consequence of that withdrawal.

Clifford May, in describing the life struggle of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, not only against the Islamists, but also against their apologists in the West, gives us a clue as to why the West is losing the war, so far.

In an unrelated note, some very deserving heroes finally get their due in Washington.

Michael Ledeen and Amir Taheri both believe the latest Iranian hostage taking is simply par for the course. Max Hastings says it is a warning of grief ahead over Iran. Meanwhile, Tony Blair is warning the Iranians that the incident could move on to a different stage if the hostages are not released. Gee, I bet the mullahs are quaking in their boots.

The truth of the matter is that President Bush and Tony Blair have gotten themselves into a difficult political situation with their own people which limits their ability to maneuver against the Iranians. Because the Iraq War is so unpopular in both the U.S. and Great Britain, and because the intelligence that led up to that war has been so discredited, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for either Bush or Blair to generate domestic political support for any military action against Iran, either in retaliation for Iranian transgressions like the hostage taking, or to punish them for defying U.N. resolutions concerning their nuclear program, or to degrade that program before it reaches fruition. The Iranian leaders seem to know this, which has emboldened them to take more aggressive action. They may yet, though, go too far, which could result in a very messy conflict.

Thomas Sowell criticizes the Democrats for their posturing about the Iraq War.

Christopher Hitchens says we should consider Peter Galbraith's proposal for partition of Iraq.

Peter Brookes writes about other potential threats while our Army and Marines are being stretched thin by deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hillary Clinton is trying to burnish her credentials with the military, according to the NY Times.

Richard Cohen points out some problems with accuracy concerning Barack Obama's back story.

E. J. Dionne says the anti-war tide may provoke a constitutional crisis in the coming months. I think he is quite right. The Democrats have every incentive to try and limit the President's ability to prosecute the war, since a majority of Americans oppose it, and a large majority of their political supporters oppose it vehemently. Therefore, they will continue their efforts. At some point the President will face a situation whereby he cannot get a "clean" bill to continue funding the war effort. What will happen then, I wonder?

One day after the U.N. Security Council voted on sanctions against them, the Iranian government has announced that it will limit cooperation with nuclear inspectors. I wonder if their prior cooperation wasn't a sham, anyway.

Walid Phares sees domestic considerations at work in the Iranian seizure of 15 British Marines.

The Wall St. Journal has this editorial about the incident, which in an earlier time would have been considered an act of war.

Robert Novak sees a President more isolated than any he has covered in 50 years as a reporter.

A new study ties behavioral problems with early day care. If you didn't feel guilty enough already, read the story and pile some more on.

Iran says they will try the captured Britons for espionage. This is exactly what they said the last time they seized British hostages, only to release them three days later after they had paraded them blindfolded before the TV cameras. Today there is speculation that they will hold them until they are exchanged for Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen who are being held by U.S. forces in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Security Council voted yesterday to impose new sanctions on Iran in response to their defiance regarding their nuclear program.

Eleanor Clift has a much-read piece on new Virginia Senator Jim Webb.

Mario Loyola writes a big picture article about what is happening in the Persian Gulf. He ties together the seizure of those British Marines by the Iranians with the Western military build-up (which includes the French aircraft carrier Charles DeGaulle, as well as U.S. and British ships) and the recent speech by Iran's Supreme Leader. I might also include the decision by President Ahmadinejad to cancel his upcoming visit to the United Nations in New York. The pot is beginning to boil.

In Afghanistan, a U.S. Marine Corps special operations unit has been ordered to leave the country, after some of its members were involved in an incident that may have included violence against civilians. I need a lot more information before I can make any kind of judgment about this story, but my gut tells me that we cannot expect to send our fighting men and women into a counter-insurgency and not involve them in morally ambiguous circumstances. All wars are about killing, and all wars are made more difficult by the so-called "fog of war" that obscures every situation, but counter-insurgencies are even more obscure.

In Somalia, a Russo-Ukrainian cargo plane is shot down over Mogadishu. The situation appears, once again, to be deteriorating in that country.

Bill Kristol and Frederick Kagan write in the Weekly Standard that the Democrats in Congress are wrong to set timetables for our military in Iraq.

James S. Robbins says we should honor our Medal of Honor recipients. I agree completely.

A German judge cites the Koran (over German law) to give a man a free pass to beat his wife, causing much uproar, and the judge's dismissal. In France, a court sides with a newspaper that printed those Mohammad cartoons. We'll see more of these kinds of tensions as the Muslim population in Europe grows and the native European population shrinks.

Michael Barone looks at the Presidential polls.

Iran has seized some British sailors in Iraqi waters. Once upon a time the Royal Navy could have been counted on to react with vigor to something like that. I wonder if they now have the capability to do much even if they wanted to.

Victor Davis Hanson, an expert on Ancient History, has this take on "300".

Iran's Supreme Leader is issuing threats...again.

John Edwards to discuss his wife's health at a Noon news conference. This doesn't sound good, I'm afraid. Update...I was right. The news is not good. Her cancer is back. Metatastic, Stage 4 Breast Cancer, which has moved into the bone. But, the Edwards campaign will go on.

Cathy Seipp has passed. I enjoyed her articles on NRO. She will be missed.

The creator of a brilliant anti-Clinton web ad has been exposed. No surprise, he was working with a consultant to the Obama campaign. Also no surprise, since his exposure, he has left that company.

It appears as if the tribes in Pakistan's tribal areas have grown weary of foreign militants in their midst.

Dick Morris says the scandal over the firing of the U.S. Attorneys is the phoniest scandal of the century (so far).

One of the most powerful men in New Hampshire politics, Dick Flynn, is out as Director of Public Safety. Elections have consequences. The end of GOP rule in New Hampshire finally allowed a Democratic Governor the opportunity to send Flynn packing, who has held his chair for 35 years.

Bob Novak asks about Valerie Plame, "Was She Covert"?

The unintended consequences of an immigration crackdown are getting treatment in the press, including this story in the Boston Globe.

Scott Lehigh, also writing in the Globe, examines the consequences of the Super Duper Primary which is on the horizon.

Iran has stopped inspectors from doing their job at one of Iran's nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the Russians are demanding that the Iranians stop uranium enrichment as a condition for the resumption of Russian work at the Bushehr nuclear plant.

Gordon Cucullu, writing in the New York Post, says the surge is working, after going to Iraq and checking it out himself.

A must-read column about a real warrior who, although he doesn't watch war movies, may go and see "300". Check out the videos of some of Hollywood's finer moments when trying to represent war on screen.

Can Democrats expect even more gains in the U.S. House in '08? One expert is not so sure. My belief is that if the Iraq War is still the most important issue in November of 2008, and it still appears as if American troops will be fighting and dying there indefinitely and to no easily understandable purpose, then it will be a smashing victory for the Democrats.

Christopher Hitchens, an early supporter of the Iraq War, answers critics who ask him now, "Weren't you wrong about Iraq"?

INDEPENDENTS MAKE THE DIFFERENCE

With ten months (approximately) to go before our first-in-the-nation (approximately) primary, I thought it was time once again to stick my finger in the air and see which way the political wind is blowing here in the Granite State, and to give my thoughts on the way things might go this time around. I saw the other day that the 2000 NH Republican primary winner, Senator John McCain of Arizona, has revived his "Straight Talk Express", even hiring a snow plow to keep him going during our last storm. How well I remember that 2000 campaign. At this point back then, George W. Bush was beginning to build an air of inevitability. It seemed that Republicans, who almost always choose the next in line in an orderly fashion during their presidential nominating process, had decided that, since there was no obvious next in line following Bob Dole's defeat in 1996, that the man with the right name and pedigree would do. Of course, voters here in New Hampshire decided to throw a monkey wrench into that machinery, just as they had done to Dole four years before. John McCain rode a wave of discontent with the status quo into victory lane here in New Hampshire. But, was it discontent with the status quo, or something else?

It seems to me that John McCain, with a great deal of help from a sympathetic media (who love outsider and underdog stories), managed to capture the imagination of that mass of undeclared voters who, every four years, parachute into the primary of one or the other major parties. Decidedly uninspired by the Democrat front runner (Al Gore) and challenger (Bill Bradley), they chose to move en masse into the GOP primary, where they racked up an impressive vote total, and a victory, for McCain. So, will that pattern happen again?

This time, McCain is the establishment candidate. He is next in line. He has spent eight years re-building his ties to the mainstream of the GOP, and has especially embraced the President in fighting the war on terror and the Iraq War. While Conservative operatives and activists still don't trust him, he has come, I think, to represent the thinking of the majority of the party on the most important issue facing America which is, of course, the war. This is why he is still the smart bet when looking at who will be the eventual nominee, even though he trails in most of the polls right now to former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani. So, if we accept that as out premise, is there an outsider who can upend him in our primary?

Giuliani would seem to be the choice for that role. He is certainly outside the mainstream of Republican ideology. He is Pro-Choice, pro-gay rights, and for gun control. He should expect to get quite a bit of positive coverage by the mainstream media. But, for him to pose a real challenge to McCain here in New Hampshire, he will need the unenrolled voters to enter the GOP primary and vote for him the way they did for McCain in 2000. I just don't think that will happen.

The reason? Senator Barack Obama. I strongly suspect that Senator Obama is going to be the darling of the media in this cycle. His battle with Hillary Clinton is going to be the "outsider versus establishment" fight that will be eaten up by the press. If that is the case, then we can expect the bulk of those unenrolled voters to come into the Democratic primary and vote for Obama. This may very well lead to his upset victory over Senator Clinton, but it will almost certainly mean that Conservatives will dominate the New Hampshire primary. Ironically, that bodes very well for McCain if it turns into a McCain vs. Giuliani contest.

Of course, there's the rub. If Conservatives dominate the contest, then any number of other candidates might catch fire and eclipse both McCain and Giuliani. It could be Romney, or Gingrich, or even a Thompson (Fred or Tommy). I think all the other candidates know this, which is why our primary will be even more powerful than it has ever been. Every Republican candidate is going to try mightily to be the alternative to McCain and Giuliani, and they all know that if they can post a good showing (especially an outright victory) in New Hampshire, they can knock one of those two out and make it a two man race to the finish (which will happen very quickly, what with the front-loading of so many big primaries).

So, that's my take, with lots of time still to go. As Betty Davis once said, "Fasten your seatbelts, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride".

Jeff Jacoby asks, "What if we deport them all"? Good question.

James Carroll has some thoughts on fundamentalism. Although we are on different planets politically, the column has some cogent points.

George Will ponders the political reversal that has led the Democrats to dominance in the Northeast and the Republicans in the Southeast of the country. It means, of course, that the race for President in '08 will be fought out in the Midwest and West. At least, here in New Hampshire, we are still going to play our usual role of winnowing down the candidate list.

Amir Taheri says, on the fourth anniversary of the start of the Iraq War, that we won. Now, the task is to preserve the victory.

Michael Barone takes to task the "blame America first" crowd.

The military is ill-prepared for a new conflict, according to this front-page article in the Washington Post.

The surge in Iraq is going "so far, so good", according to this front-page article in the Washington Times.

Bill Roggio also sees signs of progress in Iraq.

THE SADR PLAN

Confirmation of what I had suspected is now available in this article from the Washington Post. Moqtada al Sadr has ordered his Mahdi Army to lay low while the "surge" is in progress. In fact, if this article is to be believed, he is letting the Americans do the dirty work of purging his organization of some of the more troublesome members. This is very shrewd of him. While he enjoys a little vacation in Iran, his enemies are arrested and imprisoned in Iraq by the Americans. His allies in the Iraqi government still know that they owe him for their positions, and that he still has the loyalty of a great percentage of the Shiites in Iraq, especially in Baghdad. Meanwhile, the Sunni insurgents are slowly worn down by the Americans and the Iraqi Army. Eventually, as Baghdad becomes more peaceful, Sadr returns, expressing his desire for peace and democracy. Whether the "surge" is considered a success or not, the Americans will leave (probably in early 2009). Then, Sadr will strike. In all likelihood, he will win.

"Boston" lead singer Brad Delp's death a suicide, according to police officials here in New Hampshire.

Al Qaeda leader Khalid Sheik Muhammad confesses to a series of crimes and plots, according to transcripts of a hearing down at Guantanamo Bay.

Violence in Baghdad is on the decline, according to one Iraqi military official. Could the surge be working, or is it simply the case that the Shiite militias are laying low? I think it is probably a combination of the two.

Hillary says some troops will remain in Iraq, even if she is elected President. The anti-war crowd, already suspicious of her, won't like that in the least. But, then again, any attempt at being realistic is a non-starter with that bunch.

RealClearPolitics has the latest New Hampshire primary polls, with Clinton leading for the Democrats and Giuliani leading most of the Republican polls. In 2000, George W. Bush was leading the early NH polls, but was stomped by McCain. Anything can happen and, until I see evidence to the contrary, I am sticking with my first instinct, which is that Obama is going to upset Hillary in NH as idealistic independents storm the Democratic primary and whoever is deemed the more Conservative choice will then win the GOP primary. Who that might be is, as yet, unclear, but it won't be Giuliani.

George Will examines the mess we are making of the primary process with so many states pushing up their primaries and, thus, shortening the process.

Gerard Baker, writing in the Weekly Standard, sees in Europe a continent that is politically adrift.

Michael Ledeen speculates about the story of the high ranking Iranian official who may have defected (or been kidnapped).

Jeff Jacoby, writing in the Boston Globe, says that illegal immigrants are here to stay.

An Islamic leader urges Jews to be wary of Christian evangelicals. Meanwhile, a Muslim advocacy group here in the U.S. is under increasing scrutiny, according to this front-page article in the New York Times. Also in the Times, Islamic militants are turning their wrath against Pakistan.

Former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson says we should get rid of the 'don't ask, don't tell' policy regarding gays in the military.

Harold Meyerson takes the anti-war movement to task for their attacks on House Democrats like Nancy Pelosi. Meyerson believes the anti-war types are making the perfect the enemy of the good. A Republican Congressman, meanwhile, takes the Democrats to task for what they are trying to do.

Tony Blankley says it's closing time in the West.

Russia is expressing dissatisfaction with the Iranians over their nuclear stance, but it appears that this may really be all about the Iranians failure to pay the Russians what the Russians think they are owed.

H.D.S. Greenway says the "surge" is doomed to failure. While it may or may not be so as a military matter, I still think that domestic politics is the root of our eventual withdrawal from Iraq.

Many GOP voters are expressing anxiety over the upcoming elections, according to this New York Times poll. Like me, they see the Iraq War driving voters to the Democrats.

Stuart Rothenberg is completely confused by the Republican presidential race. I'll have some thoughts on that in a future post.

Michael Ledeen writes that we should believe what Iranian leaders say, which is that their guiding light is their interpretation of Islam, not Iranian nationalism. If Ledeen is right, then the current Iranian leadership is much more likely to seek, and use, nuclear weapons, despite international opposition or sanctions. Meanwhile, the President of Iran wants to talk to the U.N. Security Council about his country's nuclear aspirations.

The editors of the National Review blast the Democrats in Congress for their "lose now" attitude toward the war in Iraq.

Stephen Cohen writes a cogent piece explaining the anti-war position on troop withdrawal from Iraq. I disagree with some of his points, but he provides a well written explanation of why those on his side believe the war is immoral and has damaged U.S. security, and why staying will do more harm than good.

William Rees-Mogg takes Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to task for their failure to adequately fund the British Army, which is still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On the Continent, security officials are having an increasingly difficult time profiling potential Islamic fanatics who engage, or try to engage, in terrorism. When a white, blond, former Catholic woman from Belgium goes to Iraq and blows herself up, you know you've got a problem. I think we will see more of this. Many people respond to a world without a moral framework (which is the secular, Western world in a nutshell) by seeking spirituality. Thus the rise of New Age religions, cults, and the embrace of fundamental or radical interpretations of traditional religions.

Doom and gloom in a new report about global warming. Even if it is true, don't expect to hear much honest dialogue about what it would really take to cut emissions to the levels the scientists say are needed to slow the process down.

Robert Kagan, writing in the Washington Post, says the surge in Iraq is succeeding. I hope so. I would dearly love to be wrong about our eventual defeat in Iraq. I very much hope that the military can turn it around so dramatically in Iraq that the people will elect a President (like John McCain) who will not withdraw the troops until the mission is complete. Fortunately, there is still time for that to happen.

If you are interested in the latest political activity in New Hampshire, including which political operatives are joining which Presidential campaigns, always check out John Distaso's Granite Status column, as I do.

A Federal Court has struck down a gun control law in the District of Columbia. I have read the decision. Finally, we have a vehicle to get this thing decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Like the majority in this decision, I believe that the Second Amendment clearly protects a pre-existing individual right for firearms ownership. I hope (and I feel pretty confident about it) that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the decision.

Be on the lookout for a mis-printed Wisconsin quarter. It could be worth some money (more than face value, of course).

Sad news from the world of Rock and Roll. "Boston" lead singer Brad Delp was found dead in his New Hampshire home yesterday. He was only 55 and had recently proposed to his girlfriend. He was also actively performing in his "Beatles" tribute band "Beatlejuice". "Boston" was the band that really sparked my interest in Rock music when I was a Freshman in High School. I still turn up the volume whenever one of their hits comes on the radio.

Daylight Saving Time comes early this year, so be ready.

Greg Kaza writes about why some Western states are doing so well economically, especially compared to states like Michigan, which is doing poorly.

Violent crime is up in America's cities, including Boston.

Michael Yon continues to do excellent reporting from Iraq. Please visit his site. Stephen Spruiell writes about Yon in his Media Blog on the National Review website.

Bob Novak has some thoughts on the scandal that he played a part in generating. Charles Krauthammer believes the result of that scandal, the conviction of "Scooter" Libby, is itself scandalous. He thinks Libby should be pardoned.

George Will has some advice for those Conservatives who are unhappy with their choices for the Presidential nomination. Essentially, don't let the perfect become the enemy of the good. I love that saying. So, Mr. Will, I concur, heartily.

Another critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin dies under mysterious circumstances. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

As a person whose ancestors mostly hail from the British Isles, this article interests me. It seems that some geneticists believe that the majority of Irish, Scottish, Welsh and English people are descended from the same stock, with the invasions of Celts, Angles, Saxons, etc., having less impact than most historians thought. As Mr. Spock might say, "Fascinating".

The President of Taiwan has angered the Butchers of Beijing with his talk of independence. It seems he was just saying what his political base wants to hear, as he tries to deal with damage from a scandal.

One former New York columnist reveals the darker side of Rudy Giuliani. While Richard Cohen, writing in the same paper, says Senator Obama can speak with greater credibility about the problems afflicting America's Black community.

Caroline Glick is very unhappy with the Bush Administration's abandonment of the Bush Doctrine. While I agree with her analysis concerning Iran (which is that there are only bad scenarios following Iranian success at building nuclear weapons), what she fails to realize (and, as an Israeli, there is no reason she should realize this) is that the President has lost his ability to maneuver politically because the American people are now solidly opposed to the continuation of our involvement in the Iraq War. Therefore, the President is trying to concentrate what power and influence he has left in stabilizing the situation in Iraq (and Afghanistan, for that matter). He has no political room to build support for military action against Iran (or North Korea), so he has acquiesced to the views of those who have been urging negotiations with those countries. It is, of course, still possible that by the end of next year he will conclude that the only way to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb is to use military force. I suspect he hopes that by then the Democrats here at home and the Europeans and others abroad will see that the Iranians refuse to cooperate by giving up their nuclear ambitions. Even if they do not, I can see him ordering a military strike after the election, especially if a Republican is the President-elect. However, I think it is more likely that he will leave this problem for his successor.

Speaking of elections, Bill Kristol is optimistic about the GOP's chances next year. I share his optimism, for reasons I will write about in a future post (soon, I hope). Unfortunately, between my work at Bloomberg in NYC and Hesser College in NH, I have not had as much time to post as in the past.