Gallup says the big story of this election is disproportionate enthusiasm. Republicans are fired up, and Democrats are depressed.

The Democrats had hoped that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts would result in an issue they could use this November. They would campaign for extending the cuts for the middle class while letting taxes go up on the "rich". Big winner, right? Wrong. They end up with nothing, facing an electorate that doesn't like them much (they don't like the Republicans, either, but the Republicans are not running the show).

Michael Barone says polling data indicates the Democrats are retreating to their bicoastal base.

David Broder sees bad news for the Democrats when he looks at the numbers.

Victor Davis Hanson says the Democrats won't win any elections by insulting the voters.

George Will believes the Democrats, faced with no other options, are resorting to pounding the table.

So, where do all our Federal tax dollars go?

Jay Cost looks at why the most recent polls from California show the Democratic candidates doing better.

In the end, it is all about turnout. If fired up Republicans turn out in higher numbers than they did in 2006 (the last midterm), while only and equal or fewer Democrats turn out than that year, the GOP will make gains. If independent voters turn out in similar numbers to '06, but are leaning heavily toward the Republicans (as polling seems to indicate), which would be a complete turnaround from their behavior in '06, then the GOP gains would range from substantial to gigantic.

Michael Barone has an interesting analysis of the American political scene in this piece. He believes we are in a period of what he calls 'open field politics' that involves wide swings in voter preferences for Republicans or Democrats. If he is right, a big GOP victory in 2010 may not last very long.

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann take a very different view. Not only are they predicting a GOP takeover of both houses of Congress, they believe the Republicans will win over 70 House seats and the damage done to the Democrats will be long lasting.

Here is an analysis of the House races and the proper use of the generic ballot polls in examining those contests.

A new poll shows the Tea Party movement gaining ground inside the GOP.

Harold Meyerson believes there is evidence of increased enthusiasm on the two poles of the Democratic base.

On the other hand, is it possible that young people are moving more to the Right, at least on certain issues?

As for me, I expect to see the poll numbers tighten in the more hotly contested races as we get closer to election day. But this may not tell the true story. In the very first election I ever participated in, the 1980 Presidential contest, the polls showed a tight race right up to the end. Of course, the actual voting was not close, as Reagan won in a landslide. During volatile times, it seems to me, polls are even less useful than they are in ordinary elections.

Walter Russell Mead makes a comparison between Germany under the Kaiser and China today. After sacking Bismarck, Kaiser Wilhelm II said and did things that tended to alarm his neighbors, eventually drawing them together into alliances that just a few years before would have been unthinkable, Mead says. He points out that, in recent weeks, Chinese leaders are saying and doing things to alarm their neighbors, drawing them back into the arms of the United States.

Anne Applebaum wonders why the Chinese have suddenly moved from a successful campaign of quietly making (or buying) friends and influencing people, to rashly lashing out at their neighbors.

Victor Davis Hanson says the President's job approval rating will soon drop to 40% or lower, and he explains why it is happening.

Marc Thiessen argues that even if the GOP does not take the Senate, it won't matter, as the Democrats will be enfeebled anyway.

Jay Cost has some thoughts on the President's falling job approval numbers and some advice on how to properly read a poll.

Bill Kristol struggles not to gloat as the Democrats continue their meltdown.

It looks like the Bush tax cuts will expire on January 1 as scheduled, since the Democrats who run Congress can't even get a bill together that would limit the increases to the "rich", much less a bill that would extend the tax cuts for everyone, which is what the Republicans want.

Robert J. Samuelson is beginning to believe that a trade war with China would be preferable to letting them continue their predatory, mercantilist policies. I am beginning to think he is right.

Of course, there are some economists and other intellectuals out there who are enamored with the Chinese way of doing things, and believe this will be China's century. Of course, those who remember history will recall that quite a few Western intellectuals were attracted to Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s. This is why William F. Buckley famously asserted that he would rather be governed by the first one hundred names in the Boston phonebook than the faculty of Harvard.

Ross Douthat wonders if the Tea Party folks will be seduced by the establishment GOP. I think that is the great domestic political question of our time. Will the Tea Party be absorbed by the Republican Party? How will that change the GOP? Or will the Tea Party folks, disillusioned by Republican failures and hypocrisy, form their own party that can be a viable alternative, gaining real political power? Stay tuned.

A truly 'mad' scientist gets a long prison term.

President Obama continues to hope for 'engagement' with Iran, while President Ahmadinejad continues to spout his wild beliefs and theories. It would be comical if it was not so dangerous.

Benny Avni thinks Ahmadinejad won the day at the United Nations.

Dick Morris thinks we might be seeing a political earthquake happening in New York.

David Brooks, at long last, hits on one of the most important reasons for the rise of the Tea Party. People are angry and disgusted with political and economic elites who seem to always get away with their irresponsible behavior, leaving the average Joe and Jane holding the bag.

Paul Krugman, as always, continues to miss the point in his assertion that the GOP is dangerously unserious about fiscal matters. So, what is the main point? In my estimation, both parties have lacked the will to address with seriousness the fiscal debacle that is getting closer with each passing day. Tea Party folks seem to know this, even if they don't know the details, or disagree among themselves about what is most troubling, or how to address the problems. Which is why the GOP will get a big boost in November, but if they fail to take on the problems in a serious manner, they will face the wrath of those voters at the next opportunity.

California legislators are on the verge of breaking a dubious record.

Health insurance rates continue to soar for small business owners in Massachusetts, despite (or, perhaps, because of) the recent health reforms in the Bay State.

Here is a very frightening economic fact.

The editors of The National Review are pleased with the "Pledge to America" that GOP leaders will release today. They believe it is even bolder than the "Contract with America" that the Republicans campaigned for during the 1994 mid-term elections, which many believe was a significant factor in their landslide victory that year.

Will the Supreme Court strike down the new health care law?

John Podhoretz urges New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino to get serious, as new polling data shows he may have a chance to beat Andrew Cuomo.

Dana Milbank writes about the do-nothing congressional Democrats. They are doing nothing because, quite frankly, they have no idea what they should do in the face of poll numbers that show an unrelenting trend toward the GOP.

E.J. Dionne thinks the Tea Party is a scam. He doesn't get it, of course. Like so many liberals, he is fixated on the few extremists and oddballs in the movement who get media attention, rather than the many middle-class Americans whose concern about the future of the country are fueling the movement.

Harold Meyerson thinks the Tea Party folks ought to direct their ire at the heads of our largest corporations, rather than the people in Washington. Meyerson, of course, sees the movement as the last gasp of racist whites who see their country and their culture slipping into the hands of alien peoples. Ironically, in his description of American multi-national corporations which move jobs to places like China, he is tapping into one of the fears expressed by people in the movement and, though Meyerson does not seem to realize it, they are just as angry at the heads of these corporations as they are at the Democrats currently running the show in Washington. This is the very real danger that face the Republicans should they take Congress starting in January. If the GOP leaders do not address the issue of job losses by American companies which ship them overseas, they will find themselves just as despised as the Democrats.

Andrew C. McCarthy writes that the "Buckley Rule", which called for conservative voters to choose the 'rightwardmost viable candidate' in primaries, is not applicable to our current political climate. McCarthy believes the GOP should be purged of its establishment, accomodationist elements. Bravo.

Peter Beinart believes such a purge is the mirror image of what happened in the Democratic party after 1968, when liberal activists, upset at what they perceived to be the betrayals of the establishment Democrats during the 60s, took over the party, which led to the nomination of George McGovern in 1972. McGovern, of course, was wiped out in November that year in a 49 state landslide for Richard Nixon. Beinart thinks this similar drive for ideological purity will lead to a Republican debacle in 2012, whether Sarah Palin is the nominee, or someone equally as ideological. Time will tell, of course, but Beinart's beliefs are based on his assumption that America is a center-left country, not center-right, and that young people and Hispanics are the driving force, not aging, white conservatives. He also assumes that the election results are mostly derived from economic conditions so that, if the economy has improved sufficiently and the GOP nominates an anti-McGovern, Obama will win easily. The thing I like best about discussions of this sort is that the contentions made can be proved or disproved by election results. I just wish we didn't have to wait two years to find out who is right.

Jonah Goldberg says the Tea Party has already taken over the Republican Party, so rumors of a civil war within the GOP simply amounts to just so much more wishful thinking from liberals and their media allies.

Jeff Jacoby has a second column on why so much of our curbside recycling measures are simply a waste of energy and resources.

Is Republican Carl Paladino closing the gap with Andrew Cuomo for governor of New York?

A new poll of registered voters shows Deval Patrick leading Charlie Baker 41 to 34 percent in the Massachusetts race for governor. This would seem like good news, except for the fact that 52 percent said Governor Patrick does not deserve to be re-elected.

More trouble for President Obama as he is confronted by an "exhausted" supporter at a town hall meeting. A solidly middle-class African-American woman, she still supports Obama, but is fearful about her economic future, does not see that Obama's promises and policies are working, and is "tired of defending" Obama. Talk about the canary in the coal mine. If this is what his base supporters are thinking and feeling, is it any wonder that independents are swinging hard against him and his opponents are in a frenzy to jettison his fellow Democrats from Congress?

I am always amused by the derangement of liberal newspaper columnists, so here are a few examples...

Paul Krugman thinks the political energy of the moment is being driven by the "angry rich". Even if we discount the fact that Krugman is a member of the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans himself, he misses the point about where the anger is coming from across the land, probably because he never speaks with ordinary, middle-class people (except those who are left-wing ideologues).

Richard Cohen thinks Republicans are under some sort of demonic spell. No, Mr. Cohen, while it is true that some folks inside the GOP and the Tea Party movement say and think some nutty things (as do some folks inside the Democratic Party), the mainstream party is not under a spell, or dominated by lunatics, but just fed up with the failed policies of the Left, and the condescending attitude oftentimes expressed by those of your ilk.

Eugene Robinson excoriates Newt Gingrich for bringing up the potential menace of recognizing Islamic Sharia law here in the United States. Another questionable use of his time and the space his employers give him to write a column. I doubt very many people inside the Tea Party movement care about what Gingrich thinks, and only a small portion could even tell you what Sharia means. But, if he wants to join Cohen in his effort to show that the folks in the GOP are a bunch of extremist nutcases, I say, "bring it on". I predicted long ago that the liberals would be unable to overcome their natural feelings of intellectual superiority over the mass of the American people and would, therefore, be unable to see or accept the building anti-big government wave that is headed our way. Instead, they would, and are, wasting their time pointing fingers at whatever they consider evidence of the basic intellectual inferiority or derangement of those who do not see the world as they do.

Meanwhile, at least the editors of The Washington Post understand that the real story is the momentum being built upon by those who are part of or allied with the Tea Party movement.

Michael Gerson is also watching the poll numbers and sees good news for the GOP just about everywhere you look.

But at least one Democrat still believes the GOP will have a hard time taking the House.

A new national poll shows independent voters swinging hard toward the GOP. Just more evidence of the big losses the Democrats will suffer in November.

A new Rasmussen poll shows the race for governor here in New Hampshire is a dead heat. I'm sure Governor Lynch and his people are telling themselves that Rasmussen is a right-wing pollster, and they will take some comfort in that right up until some other poll comes out that shows the race getting closer. When that happens, I'm not sure they will know what to do about it.

The political strategists in the White House are considering a plan that would run anti-Tea Party television ads around the country, portraying them as extremists and tying them to the GOP. The reason? The thought is that this would be a good way to fire up their liberal base. It might cause some increase in liberal enthusiasm, but it risks turning more voters into Tea Party supporters, in my estimation, and compel more Tea Party sympathizers to vote for their local Republican candidates.

I will be filling-in for Bradley Jay on WBZ radio in Boston tonight from 10 PM to Midnight. Among the things I might talk about...

Will independent voters break heavily for the GOP this November? Will Republicans turn out with more enthusiasm than Democrats? Does this mean the GOP will win big?

Does Deval Patrick deserve another term as Massachusetts governor?

Is the Tea Party a legitimate, grass roots movement? Who, or what, do they represent? Here is a piece from The Telegraph of the UK that gives a pretty good analysis of the movement.

South Carolina Republican Senator Jim DeMint says he thinks the Tea Party movement is now being heard in Washington.

Is America, and the world, headed for a demographic disaster?

You can listen tonight over the air at 1030 on the AM band, or online.

A new poll shows the race for governor in Massachusetts is now just about a dead heat between Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick and Republican Charlie Baker. Once again, Massachusetts is the state to watch early on election night. If the GOP wins the governor's office and one or two House seats in the Bay State it will mean the wave is coming in, big time.

Lisa Murkowski will run a write-in campaign to try to hold her Senate seat in Alaska. This may very well allow the Democrats to take that seat, making it even less likely that the GOP will win the Senate. Of course, it is possible that the wave for Republicans will be so large such things will not matter.

Union members are not very enthusiastic about the Democrats, which is causing problems for their leaders. This poses a real problem for the Democrats, as union members provide the core of their foot soldiers when waging the ground game in an election. If they have less enthusiasm, that means fewer people going door-to-door, fewer people manning the phones, fewer holding signs. It also means that it is probable a significant percentage of these members may, in the privacy of the voting booth, defy their leaders when casting a ballot.

Fred Barnes says a GOP Nor'easter is coming in the Northeast. His focus is on Pennsylvania (which I, for one, do not consider part of the Northeast), but it seems likely that there will be Republican gains in the real Northeast, especially here in New Hampshire.

A Chicago law professor whose wife is a doctor (the exact pre-political status of Barack and Michelle Obama) says Obama's plan to let taxes go back up on the "rich" will hurt folks like him. What strikes me about his post is that the people who will really suffer if he and his wife have to make some cutbacks to pay the extra taxes are the working class folks who mow his lawn and clean his house.

A majority of Americans want to raise taxes on the rich. I am not surprised by that result. This is the main thing my very conservative or libertarian friends can never seem to accept. The bulk of the people want their programs, especially Social Security and Medicare, and they think raising taxes on the rich, along with cutting things like foreign aid, will suffice to balance the budget. It just won't work. Only radical reforms of the entitlement programs, as indicated in Congressman Paul Ryan's roadmap plan, will lead to balanced budgets without ruinous tax increases applied to everyone, rich or otherwise.

Economist Nouriel Roubini believes a temporary, two-year payroll tax cut would be the best way to prevent a double-dip recession.

Check out how an artist from Utah is protesting the trampling and shredding of our Constitution and the irresponsible spending of our tax money by America's leaders, especially President Obama.

David Brooks slams the 'backlash myth' concerning the ascendancy of Tea Party candidates in the Republican Party. He is quite right. The backlash is right now directed at the people in power, and since the Democrats control the White House and Congress, they represent the people in power more so than the GOP.

Eugene Robinson is also warning Democrats not to write off the Tea Party candidates, expecting their 'extremism' to do them in with independent voters.

Peggy Noonan believes the time has come for the Tea Party, and her analysis is superior to much that has been so far written about the movement.

Sean Trende says there are four things you need to know about Delaware. He does not believe that the GOP can win the Senate seat with O'Donnell as the nominee, but does not believe it is absolutely impossible, nor does he believe it is now impossible for the GOP to take the Senate.

Michael Gerson says the Tea Party enthusiasm with the GOP can cut both ways.

Here are the final results from the primary elections held here in New Hampshire on Tuesday. If Ovide Lamontagne had been able to spend a few more days or a few more dollars he would have won the primary for U.S. Senate. As it stands, Kelly Ayotte should still be a very effective candidate against Paul Hodes for the seat, and early polling data confirms that position.

Democrats continue to face an enthusiasm gap.

Todd Domke looks at some races the GOP could win in Massachusetts. If, early on election night, you start seeing good news for Republicans in the Bay State, that will be the first and best indicator that the Democrats are in for a disaster.

A new New York Times/CBS News poll (adults, not just registered voters) shows poor job approval ratings for the President, even worse ratings for Congress, and a large number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track. While the Times tries to spin the story as one that shows problems and opportunities for both parties, it clearly means the Democrats are in the poorest position, as they hold all the levers of power.

Karl Rove is mystified by the political strategy coming out of the White House.

Bill Kristol thinks the primary season has been a good one for the GOP, even if it means the Republicans missed an opportunity in Delaware.

Jay Cost says the national GOP will support their Delaware nominee, and he has some other polling data from races around the country.

When the entitlement bubble bursts it will be a nightmare.

THOUGHTS ON THE NH ELECTION

Update...at 1:25 PM the AP still has Ayotte leading Lamontagne, 48,590 to 47,406 with 272 0f 301 precincts reporting. What a race. If the campaign had gone on for one or two more days, Lamontagne would have won.

What a night for political junkies!

In the hotly contested GOP primary for U.S. Senate as I write this at 7:49 AM, the Associated Press reports that with 85% of precincts reporting Kelly Ayotte is leading Ovide Lamontagne by just under 1,000 votes out of almost 120,000 votes cast. Quickly scanning the town-by-town results, I can clearly see that any traditional liberal vs. conservative, RINO vs. "real" Republican, "Establishment vs. "Tea Party" analysis fails to explain the results. Ayotte was endorsed by Sarah Palin, after all, while Lamontagne seemed to appeal more to folks who considered themselves part of the Tea Party movement than Ayotte, despite the Palin endorsement. How will it turn out? Again, looking at the towns that have not reported, it would seem that Lamontagne would do better in some of the smaller, more conservative towns of the North Country, but Dover has not reported, and that larger Seacoast community would seem likely to be evenly split, or advantage Ayotte. Where will Lamontagne get the votes to make up the gap? I just don't see it.

For Governor, it will be incumbent Democrat John Lynch going against John Stephen (which just about everyone predicted would be the case).

In CD-1, Frank Giunta will be the GOP nominee and take on incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. In CD-2, former Congressman Charlie Bass is the GOP nominee and will go against Democrat Ann McLane Kuster. Here are the results for both districts.

For Governor, I expect Lynch to have an early lead in the polls over Stephen, but if Stephen can run an effective campaign, especially with good TV and other media exposure to improve his name recognition with independent voters, he may be able to make some headway. Still, Lynch has been the Teflon governor so far, so don't expect miracles, unless the GOP wave hits New Hampshire hard.

In CD-1, Shea-Porter may be just the kind of Democrat who is most vulnerable in this election. More liberal in her views than the majority of the district (albeit a district that has become more liberal over the last ten years or so), if independents move heavily toward the GOP she could go down.

In CD-2, Bass has the edge over Kuster, even though it is a more liberal district than CD-1, if independents break for the GOP.

Same story for the Senate race, whether it is Ayotte vs. Hodes or Lamontagne vs. Hodes. It is all about how the independents break. Looking at the most recent registration numbers for New Hampshire, independent or undeclared voters number 388,589, Democrats 266,114 and Republicans 264,451. If those independent voters break heavily for the GOP, they could sweep away the Democrats in much the same way the Democrats swept the Republicans in 2006.

It is primary election day here in New Hampshire and some of the other states. There are some very interesting contests going on, especially right here at home.

John DiStaso writes about a new poll that shows Ovide Lamontagne getting to within three points of Kelly Ayotte in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Will he fall just short today? DiStaso believes he will. I believe he will win by a nose. I have no idea about the 1st Congressional District race, but if I had to guess, I would say Frank Giunta pulls it out because of his strength in Manchester. Charlie Bass will be the nominee to regain his old seat in the 2d CD, and John Stephen will be the GOP candidate for Governor.

In Delaware it appears as if the GOP will lose an opportunity of picking up a Senate seat by choosing Christine O'Donnell over Mike Castle. O'Donnell, according to just about every expert I have heard so far, has no chance, and this recent poll seems to back that up.

Here is an article about a lawsuit O'Donnell once filed against a former employer.

Jay Cost writes about Delaware, New Hampshire, and the other action happening across the nation.

Jim Geraghty has an overview of today's primaries.

Is economic doomsday in the cards for the United States?

A new tax will kill energy jobs.

If health insurance rates go up, the insurance companies had better not blame the government, or else.

Paul Krugman is frustrated with the way the Administration is handling, or failing to handle, the refusal by the Chinese to stop depressing the value of their currency.

Could there be a political upset in the making in New York?

A new poll in New Hampshire shows Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne 37-30 in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Lamontagne continues to surge, but he may have run out of time.

Jay Cost sees a close race in Delaware.

On this the 9th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Andrew McCarthy says we continue to pretend a moderate, tolerant version of Islam exists which is allied with the West and an enemy of the al Qaeda extremists and their fellow travellers. He, too, wishes such an Islam existed, but believes that it does not, despite that fact that millions of Muslims live moderately, respecting the beliefs and traditions of others.

Some believe our real error following 9/11 was not that we overreacted, but that we used the language of total war without the methods required to prosecute and win such a war, which is exactly what we did following December 7, 1941.

Reuel Marc Gerecht responds to Fareed Zakaria's contention that we overreacted to the 9/11 attacks.

Ted Koppel believes our actions in response to 9/11 played right into Osama bin Laden's hands.

As for me, I believe President Bush missed some crucial opportunities that will loom ever larger in the pages of history as time passes. First, he should have asked Congress for a declaration of war against al Qaeda and the Taliban (nothing in the Constitution limits a war declaration only to nation states). This would have helped bind the Democrats to his course of action, and provided a legal framework within which to work. Second, he should have called for a national program to reduce our dependence on Mideast oil. Americans would have been ready, willing and able to make the sacrifices necessary to accomplish such a goal while the smoke was still rising from Ground Zero. Third, he should have asked Congress to reinstate the draft, or create some form of national service commitment. This would have avoided the situation which we now have of a relatively small slice of the American population bearing the greatest burden of our global military operations.

These are my observations, and I have held to them from the start. History will judge whether President Bush was right to to what he did. I only hope that a future President is not faced with an even larger crisis, exacerbated by the mistakes of his predecessors.

Political analyst Charlie Cook says the Democrats have reached a tipping point and will certainly lose the House. In fact, he believes the losses will be "well north" of the 39 seats that would give the GOP control of the lower chamber. He counts 80 seats as in play, and while he does not believe the Republicans will win all 80, he certainly expects they will win a majority of them.

GOP insiders are skeptical about all of these predictions of a landslide and are urging their people to keep working. I was expecting this, as the Republican leadership knows that the Democrats are deliberately lowering their expectations so that anything short of a huge win by the GOP can be painted as a loss. Republicans also know that they need to keep their base excited.

Jay Cost says new polling data from Maine shows the Democrats are weakening in a place they should be holding without a problem, which he sees as just another sign of a looming catastrophe for them.

If I had to guess, I would say the GOP will win about 60 seats, but I'll make a final prediction just before the election. As Glenn Reynolds would say, though, channeling Han Solo, "Don't get cocky, kid".

Nile Gardiner believes even America's liberal elites realize that the Obama Presidency is crumbling.

Dick Morris says the Democrats are facing an epic disaster this November.

Michael Barone says the Democratic leadership is planning a sort of electoral triage, funneling money only to those candidates they think have a chance, and writing off those that do not.

Fred Barnes compares the political situation for the Democrats to that which faced the British Expeditionary Force at Dunkirk in 1940.

Perhaps the unusual midterm election is now the norm.

Jay Costs says the folks in the White House have decided to rally the Democratic base as the most effective means of keeping control of Congress. He does not think it will work, and neither do I. Republican enthusiasm is enormous and, even more importantly, independents are breaking hard for the GOP.

Here in New Hampshire, a new poll puts Ovide Lamontagne in second place behind Kelly Ayotte and ahead of Bill Binnie in the race for the GOP Senate nomination. Ovide and Jim Bender are surging, while Binnie is falling. I think Ovide has a real shot at this, while Binnie is being killed by a backlash against his negative campaign and the fact that conservative voters are questioning his political positions, which is moving them in Ovide's direction. Ayotte still has the advantage, but Ovide is gaining ground at just the right time.

The Union Leader gives their endorsement for the GOP nomination in the 1st District to Rich Ashooh. Their endorsement is always significant, but it may have even more impact for this particular race. The reason? I, for one, have not seen any candidate enjoy a real advantage in this race. All have strengths and weaknesses that seem to offset each other. Like many GOP voters in this district, I have not made up my own mind as to who I will support, so the UL endorsement has real weight.

As always, John DiStaso has lots of information on New Hampshire politics and the latest in these hot political battles.

Walter Russell Mead says Americans should remember that things are not as bad as they seem, and not nearly as bad as they have been for prior generations.

Then again, looking at the numbers, there are 13 reasons why we are actually in a Depression right now.

Is the Greek economy about to implode?

Anne Applebaum says Europe is now divided between North and South rather than East and West.

Fred Barnes says Washington elites are increasingly out of touch with the rest of America.

Stu Rothenberg is the latest prominent political analyst to say that a GOP wave is building.

Michael Gerson examines the prospects for a GOP takeover of the House, and why that might lead to gridlock. I think he is probably correct, in that the two parties will square off with neither having strong leadership. That mutual weakness will lead to very little in the way of substance, and much in the way of posturing.

Here is an example of a law passed by Congress that led directly to the loss of American jobs.

A new CNN poll says the Republican advantage is growing as we get closer to the midterm elections.

Clive Crook, writing in The Financial Times, says Democrats are headed for a drubbing.

In The Wall Street Journal, this column is about the anti-incumbent wave (and, since Democrats hold the majority of seats, it will be worse for them than for the GOP).

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Republicans making big gains.

Jay Cost, writing in The Weekly Standard, says it has been a brutal week for the Democrats.

Hmmm....I notice a trend here, don't you?

Why is it happening? The first, and simplest, answer is the economy. Things look bad to the average American, even if their own personal circumstances are pretty good, since just about everyone knows someone who has lost a job, or who is sitting in a house they cannot sell, or is running a business that is just crawling along. But it is more than the economy, I think.

The Tea Party folks, it seems to me, represent a significant percentage of mostly white, working and middle class Americans. In the past we have called them Middle America, or the Silent Majority, but they are essentially the same people. They are the people who follow the rules, obey the law, go to school, get married, buy a house, have kids, hope to save enough for retirement and send those kids to a decent school. Most of these folks are independent voters today (during the period 1932 to 1968 they were mostly Democrats, but since then they have been more split between the parties, and since the late 1980s they have become less attached to any party) but their ideological instincts tend to skew conservative, since their lives are lived in a conservative way.

This is not to say that there are not non-white people in their ranks, or who feel the same way. There are indeed, which makes things even more difficult for the Democrats this time around. The only ethnic group that can be counted on to vote for the Democrats this time are African-Americans, historically the most reliable part of the Democratic base, and this time also motivated by a desire to support President Obama. But they are not enough to save the Democrats.

White, working class voters were skeptical of Obama the candidate, mostly voting for Hillary Clinton. They gave him their votes in 2008 because they were tired of the Republicans, and because he ran as a centrist. His alliance with Reid and Pelosi on a left-wing agenda, combined with his apparent weakness on foreign policy, and the fact that the economy has not improved, all have led to their abandonment of the President and his party. This does not mean that the GOP is poised for some long-term takeover. If things do not get better, and if the GOP seems to be no more capable than the Democrats, they will also feel the wrath of those voters.

"Fasten your seat belts, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride".

Larry Sabato says the GOP will take the House this November, and may take the Senate as well.

Charlie Cook has more bad news for the Democrats.

Jay Cost looks at some of the recent polls and sees the same thing everyone else is seeing, which is a whole host of races where Democrats are vulnerable, often in places where they should not be vulnerable. I am becoming more comfortable with the thought that this will be a bigger wave than 1994. Could the GOP gain 60 or more seats, and the Senate to boot? The Democrats will need something dramatic between now and election day to turn the tide.

More bad news for the Democrats, as younger voters, the strength of Obama in 2008, are not feeling the same vibe. If anything, a terrible job market is making some apathetic about politics and driving others into the arms of the GOP.

Paul Krugman says he was right all along when he advocated a bigger stimulus.

Robert Reich says income inequality is at the center of our troubled economy.

Russia, facing a severe drought, extends a grain embargo, raising fears of a global food crisis.

Some really good stuff in The National Review Online today...

Jim Geraghty on what the political landscape might look like if the GOP wins big this November.

Michael Barone on why Americans have soured on Big Government, Big Business and Big Labor.

Robert Costa interviews Democratic pollster Pat Caddell, who believes the Democrats are headed for a train wreck this November because Barack Obama campaigned as a centrist but has governed as a liberal.

Victor Davis Hanson writes about the New Old World Order.

In The New York Post, Benny Avni says the new round of Middle East peace talks will not succeed.

At RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende says the November win for the GOP could be bigger than 1994.

In The Union Leader, John DiStaso writes about the increasingly nasty tone of the GOP races for Congress. I have witnessed with some amusement the exchange of attack ads on television and by direct mail. As a Republican voter myself, I have not yet made up my mind as to who I will support, but I do know that attack ads are not the way to earn my vote (which is why I like Ovide Lamontagne's Senate campaign strategy, which is to be positive and upbeat).

In The Weekly Standard, Jay Cost has this roundup of political news and polling trends.

As I return to school this Fall, after a 26-year hiatus, I find this article by Virginia Postrel to be quite interesting, as she examines the consequences of our increasing lifespans. She argues that the old model of people retiring at 65 and living the rest of their lives going golfing, or travelling, or simply getting by on their pensions or Social Security checks, is simply not sustainable, nor is it desired by many people contemplating life after 60 or 70. My father recently passed away at age 80. He grew up during the Depression. For him and his generation, the ideal was to get a good, steady job with a pension that guaranteed security for life. He eventually became a policeman, and did his 25 years on the force, retired at 57 and never held another job. I cannot imagine living that way, even if I had a job that provided me with a pension that would allow it (which I do not). After over twenty years in the broadcast media I am moving on to another career. I hope to pursue that career for many years and, if I find other interests, or the economic situation requires it, I will do something else down the road. I think this vision of life is shared by many Baby Boomers and the subsequent generations.

If Russ Feingold is in trouble in Wisconsin, then the Democrats could lose the Senate as well as the House.

Michael Gerson believes the President simply has not been able to sustain his focus in terms of his message to the American people, which should be about jobs and the economy.

Harold Meyerson hits the political nail on the head when he writes about the white, working class voter as being the key to the upcoming elections. Unfortunately for Meyerson and his Progressive friends, he does not understand why those voters are listening to Limbaugh and watching O'Reilly and Beck. He does understand that those voters are unhappy with Big Business and Big Finance, but he does not understand that they don't trust Big Government or Big Labor to make things better (in fact, many of those voters believe letting government get bigger will simply make things worse).