Victor Davis Hanson, in wondering why the GOP is so eager to lose the election just when the Democats have given them a way to win it, makes some good points about why John McCain is a conservative in the Reagan mold.

Despite McCain’s 82-percent career ranking by the American Conservative Union, and his support for balanced budgets, an end to pork-barrel spending and earmarks, strong support for the war, and expressed regret over once supporting the Bush illegal immigration reform package, McCain was branded by the conservative media as a sellout and a near liberal. Not to mention that he was supposedly too old and hot-tempered to be the Republican nominee. The more McCain was discovered not to be a perfect conservative, the more he was accused of not even being a good one.Even stranger, the various Republican candidates began invoking Ronald Reagan’s three-decade-old tenure as the new litmus test of the times — apparently to show how moderates like the wayward McCain fell far short of the Gipper’s true-blue conservatism.Were conservatives supposed to forget that a maverick Reagan raised some taxes, signed an illegal-alien amnesty bill, expanded government, appointed centrist Supreme Court justices, advocated nuclear disarmament, sold arms to Iran, and pulled out of Lebanon — but to remember only that John McCain was not for the original Bush tax cuts or once supported the administration’s offer of a quasi-amnesty?The Democratic cat-fighters are doing their best to give away a once-sure general election, but the Republicans seem to be doing even more to ensure that they forfeit the unexpected gift they’ve been given.

Read the whole thing.

Michael Barone has some thoughts on the campaign so far, and why he thinks Republicans will unite (which fits the historical pattern) and Democrats will divide (which also fits the historical pattern...as Will Rogers once said, "I don't belong to any organized political party...I'm a Democrat").

John DiStaso also has some thoughts on why failures in New Hampshire led to the implosion of the Giuliani campaign.

Meanwhile, the New York Times may have dropped the biggest bomb on the Clinton campaign today with this story about the shady dealings between a millionaire Canadian businessman and Bill Clinton. Democratic primary voters take notice. Obama's relationship with a shady Chicago businessman is small potatoes by comparison.

I guess I should get out of the prediction business. I expected a very close race in Florida, with a very narrow victory for Romney. Instead, John McCain wins the battle by almost 100,000 votes. A five point win, 36%-31%. Meanwhile, I got it at least half right (as did everyone else) when I predicted a Clinton victory.

A couple of observations.

First, this means John McCain has the clearest path to the Republican nomination. Dick Morris has some thoughts on why that is true. As for me, it simply boils down to a few truths. McCain's string of wins is giving him the momentum that is pushing him into the lead in the state polls in the Super Duper Tuesday states. If Giuliani exits today and endorses McCain, as expected, then he will no longer have anyone else in the race to compete for independents, liberals and moderates who want to vote in open GOP primaries. If Huckabee stays in, as expected, then Romney will have to compete with the former Arkansas Governor for evangelicals and conservatives, especially in the South. Jay Cost has some analysis of the Florida results that should prove sobering reading for the Romney folks. As Morris says, "McCain can win, Romney can't".

Second, on the Democratic side, Clinton will go into Super Duper Tuesday having blunted, to some extent, Obama's momentum gained by his huge South Carolina victory and the endorsement of the Kennedys.

It still looks to me, as it did a year ago, that it will be Clinton vs. McCain in November.

A big day in Florida as that state holds it's presidential primary. The latest Florida polls show that Clinton is well in the lead on the Democratic side while it is neck-and-neck between McCain and Romney on the Republican side.

Zogby's last Florida poll has McCain with 35% and Romney with 31%. Giuliani and Huckabee trail with 13% each.

Mitchell Interactive, which is a Michigan-based polling firm, likes to point out that they had the McCain South Carolina margin right on and they were close to the Romney Michigan vote margin. Their last Florida poll shows Romney 34%, McCain 32% with Giuliani 13% and Huckabee 10%.

I heard Joe Scarborough, a former Florida congressman and current MSNBC talk host, last night on MSNBC say that he thought Romney would win Florida. So, in the spirit of a Republican race that can't find a front runner, I'll go with that. My prediction....Romney by a nose in Florida (and, of course, Clinton by a significant margin on the Democratic side).

One more day of campaigning before the Florida primary, and it's looking like last call for Rudy Giuliani. The Florida polls show a two-man race on the GOP side, with McCain just slightly ahead of Romney.

John Zogby has it McCain 33%, Romney 30% with Giuliani at 14% and Huckabee 11%.

Rasmussen Reports has it McCain 31%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 16% and Huckabee 11%.

One wild card in this race is the early voting. According to this Miami Herald article, nearly one million Floridians have already voted. So we can expect yet another state with a record turnout, made even more remarkable by the fact that on the Democratic side the candidates have not been very active in the state, as the national party has said the primary won't count for delegate selection (of course, if Hillary comes into the convention as the nominee, the convention will vote to seat Florida's delegates, as well as Michigan's, which is in a similar situation).

In a major blow to the Clinton campaign, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy will come out today and endorse Barack Obama. Clearly, the Kennedys have decided the country has had enough of the Clintons (and to think that I never in my life believed I would find common ground with Ted Kennedy).

John McCain is beginning to gain ground with the Republican establishment. John Fund says McCain has some opportunities ahead to mend fences with conservatives. I absolutely agree. McCain needs to do whatever is necessary to mend those fences, as he will have a much more difficult time winning in November if conservatives sit it out.

SOUTH CAROLINA ANALYSIS

With 99% reporting, Obama wins the South Carolina Democratic primary by a huge margin, truly a rout. Here are the results:

Obama 295,091 55%
Clinton 141,128 27%
Edwards 93,552 18%

Jay Cost has some reaction to the results, specifically concerning the one big question that arises from them...can Obama win enough white voters to remain competitive with Clinton when the race moves into states with small African-American populations? It isn't good enough, it seems to me, to say that Obama won in Iowa, therefore, he can win white votes. Hillary changed her campaign tactics after Iowa, holding town hall meetings and taking question after question (which she was doing last night in Nashville even as commentators were debating that very question). By showing emotion just before the New Hampshire primary, she was able to increase her appeal to women voters. Even in her loss last night, she still did very well with white women. I am not at all convinced that Obama can win this thing when faced with her ability to attract white females to her cause. As a Republican, though, I am quite satisfied with my analysis, as I believe Obama would be a much more difficult opponent to defeat in November. Frank Rich also sees a path to a GOP victory if Billary wins the Democratic nomination.

Caroline Kennedy sees echoes of her father's inspirational candidacy in Obama, and endorses his campaign.

I'll keep my fingers crossed that Bill and Hillary's knife-fighting political style will, in the end, win her the nomination, thus dispiriting all of those hopeful young Democrats (and not a few African-Americans), depressing their turnout in November, and keeping the White House in GOP hands. (BTW, I feel terrible even writing those words, but I think keeping our troops in the fight, as the GOP President would do, rather than pulling them from the field, as the Democratic President would do, is more important than anything else).

SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS

Wow.

Like everyone else, I expected an Obama win. But this.....this is a beat down.

Here are the results so far.

Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%.

Obama beat his two opponents...combined.

He won in nearly every category, according to the exit polls.

Finally, an observation. I watched his victory speech, and I noticed the demographically mixed nature of the crowd. Obama was eloquent, powerful, and presidential. He offered hope (although, as is always the case with speeches like this, not very many specifics). I have believed for some time that he would be a much tougher candidate to beat than would Hillary Clinton. I am now absolutely convinced of it.

It's primary day in South Carolina, and state officials are predicting a record turnout as Democrats go to the polls.

John Zogby's last poll of South Carolina Democrats shows Obama leading with 41%, followed by Clinton with 26% and Edwards with 19%. American Research Group has Obama with a much narrower lead, Obama 39%, Clinton 36% and Edwards 22%.

Michael Barone says South Carolina is setting the stage for the national election, but not in the way it has done in the past. In past cycles, South Carolina has propelled a candidate on to victory. This time, S.C. is setting the stage for a long fight in both parties.

Ron Brownstein writes about the nasty, brutish and drawn-out nature of the Democratic contest.

As for me, I'll take the easy way out. I predict Obama will win, but only by four or five points, over Clinton.

Some interesting trends in the polling as we approach the Democratic primary in South Carolina on Saturday and the primary for both parties in Florida on Tuesday.

In South Carolina, American Research Group shows Obama still ahead, with Clinton second, but John Edwards slowly gaining ground (Obama 45%, Clinton 36%, Edwards 12%). That finding is even more pronounced in the most recent Zogby poll (Obama 38%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 21%). Rasmussen has Obama 43%, Clinton 28% and Edwards 17%. It still looks like a solid Obama win, but Edwards may do better than expected. If Obama wins, will it help him gain ground in Florida, where he continues to trail Clinton?

On the GOP side in Florida, it looks like a fascinating race. It appears as if Huckabee is slipping, and Giuliani has been sliding for some time, so it is shaping up to be a McCain vs. Romney contest. ARG has McCain over Romney 31% to 26%, while Rasmussen has Romney up, 27% to 23% with Giuliani still in the mix at 20%.

Huckabee isn't quite through, yet. In Alabama, according to Rasmussen, Huckabee is tied with McCain at 27%, while Romney trails with 15%. Huckabee has a big lead in Georgia, again according to Rasmussen, with 34% to McCain's 19%.

So, what is going on? Simple. There is just not a unifying candidate in the GOP at this time. They all would like to be the guy, but none of them has, so far, been able to break through and make the case that they are the one to unify the party and win in November. Fortunately for the Republicans, the Democrats are engaged in a fight that is more about race and sex than it is about ideas, or even personalities. This could be far more harmful to them when they eventually have a nominee. For Republicans, the distasteful task of accommodating oneself to a candidate not of one's choosing is made easier if the disagreements were of a policy nature, or even a lack of comfort with a candidate's personality, as I believe is the case this year. If, on the other hand, the fight goes to the core of one's identity (which is the point of the very "identity politics" practiced by the Democrats), then it seems to me making an accommodation will be more difficult. Of course, only time will tell.

Amir Taheri has praise for the President of France.

Hamas creates an "on the ground reality" with cranes and bulldozers.

Jose Canseco, steroid user, and extortionist?

Dean Barnett thinks he knows the truth about talk radio (I believe he's got it).

Dick Morris believes he knows how Hillary Clinton will win the nomination by losing in South Carolina.

Courtesy of RealClearPolitics, here are the latest polls from South Carolina (Obama up big), Florida (Clinton up big on the Democratic side, McCain, Romney and Giuliani in a three-way race on the GOP side) and California (Clinton and McCain leading). Also, here is the current delegate count (Clinton ahead for the Democrats and Romney leading in the GOP). If Dick Morris is right, and he may very well be, then Hillary is going to win a significant victory on February 5 and march to the nomination, as there are simply not enough African-American and anti-Hillary voters in the Democratic Party to stop her. While Romney leads in the delegate count for the GOP, I think McCain will win in Florida, which should give him significant momentum for February 5 that will, in all likelihood, allow him to surpass Romney in delegates that day.

At the beginning of this cycle the front-runners were Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Both campaigns were dealt setbacks (especially McCain), and yet both have rebounded and are now in position to win their party nominations. Amazing.

If you are depressed about the gloomy financial news, here is the story that came out of last night's Democratic Presidential debate in South Carolina. Perhaps you aren't cheered up by the spectacle of Democrats tearing each other's guts out, but I am.

On the Republican side, some conservatives have come out swinging in what may be a last ditch effort to derail the John McCain nomination. Here is one argument against him, and another, both of which conclude that Rudy Giuliani is the right guy. Here is another article, though, which explains what may be behind the McCain resurgence this year, and it relates to what happened in January and February some forty years ago in a place called Vietnam.

David Brooks has this analysis about what is happening inside the GOP.

George Will has this analysis of the race for President in both parties.

Here are the latest polls from Florida. Notice that of the two most recent polls, one has McCain up by five points, and the other has Romney up by five points. Giuliani is right there with those two in both polls, and Huckabee is trailing those three. It looks as if Huckabee is fading. If that is the case, where will his support go? Romney has the more traditional views from a conservative Christian viewpoint, but his Mormon faith may still present an obstacle, and his inconsistency on certain issues may be an even bigger obstacle. Giuliani certainly won't get much of that support, so it may be that McCain is the big winner if Huckabee becomes a non-factor.

18 Down, 1 to go for my New England Patriots.

As for those who would be the next President of the United States...

The Republican candidates are fighting it out in Florida. Here are the latest polls, which show a four-way race.

Bob Novak sees signs that the GOP establishment may be prepared to rally around McCain. I'll withhold judgement until after Florida. If McCain wins in Florida, that should propel him to a big day on Super Tuesday. Any other outcome could lead to a more muddled Super Tuesday result, and a long slog to the convention.

NEVADA AND S.C ANALYSIS

Two more down, many more to go.

In Nevada, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney were the winners. Here are the results. For Romney, it was no surprise. The state has a significant Mormon constituency and Romney was the only Republican who gave it any serious attention. For Clinton, it was another example of how she is winning the traditional Democratic coalition, which bodes very well for her going forward. As Jay Cost points out in his analysis, she is winning women, Catholics, people who make under $50,000 a year, and now she can add Hispanics to the list. Obama continues to win upper-income voters, he does well with men, and very well with African-Americans. But he doesn't win the male vote by enough to counteract Clinton's strength with women, and there are still more lower income voters in the Democratic Party than upper-income. While Obama may be able to win South Carolina next Saturday, if Clinton continues to win the traditional Democratic voters, she is going to do very well on Super Tuesday, and will win the nomination.

In South Carolina, were only the GOP primary was held yesterday, John McCain pulled out a narrow victory. Here are the results. Jay Cost also analyzes those results, and concludes that Mike Huckabee did not appeal very well beyond his evangelical base. This does not bode well for him going forward. Still, he might have won South Carolina were it not for Fred Thompson. Ironically, if Thompson stays in for the Florida primary on the 29th, that might actually help Huckabee. Right now the Florida polls show a four-way tie, essentially, between McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney. Thompson gets just enough non-evangelical conservative voters that might otherwise go to Romney, which prevents him from busting out past Huckabee (as I think Giuliani keeps McCain from busting out, and Giuliani does the same to McCain, as they take from each other).

As it stands now, the only thing standing in the way of John McCain winning the nomination is the possibility that enough candidates will drop out quickly enough to leave only one conservative alternative standing with enough time to reach the finish line first. The only two candidates who can make the case that they are reliably conservative (and more conservative than the maverick McCain) on all the important fiscal, social and national security issues are Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. It seems that Romney is the only one who can now offer the alternative to McCain with enough money and enough wins in his pocket to make the case that he can unite the GOP and beat him to that delegate finish line. For McCain, the path to victory is to keep Thompson and Huckabee in the race and eliminate Giuliani in Florida. That looks like the best bet.

NEVADA AND S.C. PREDICTIONS

It is primary day for Republicans in South Carolina and caucus day for Republicans and Democrats in Nevada. The latest polls show some interesting results for the GOP race in South Carolina. Both the American Research Group and the Zogby International polls show that Mike Huckabee is surging as we near the finish line. If this is real, it could push Huckabee over the top, especially since the weather is bad today and turnout could be depressed. Huckabee's evangelical supporters, it seems to me, would be less likely to be deterred by the weather. This race is difficult to predict. So, based on this late surge in the polls, I will stick with my original prediction. Huckabee in a narrow win over McCain.

In Nevada, the latest polls show that Romney has a narrow lead over McCain and Clinton has a narrow lead over Obama. Since this is a caucus, I expect the cadre of voters who participate will be dominated by committed party members, therefore, the poll results should be validated. I would expect a fairly comfortable victory for Clinton on the Democratic side and Romney on the GOP side.

The campaigns are scrambling for votes in Nevada and South Carolina. In Nevada, the real problem facing the campaigns is trying to get out the vote. Nevadans are inexperienced when it comes to this early voting thing and, in addition, they are having caucuses instead of a primary. Don't be surprised if turnout is low, despite the enormous importance of the contest. In South Carolina, I would expect a big turnout (they've been doing the early primary thing long enough now to have gotten used to the drill, even though it is happening even earlier than before).

The Nevada polling information shows that Mitt Romney is in the lead over John McCain while the polls concerning the Democratic race have Hillary ahead of Obama. The South Carolina polls have McCain leading Huckabee on the GOP side and Obama leading Hillary on the Democratic side.

Back on January 7, while painting a possible scenario that might lead to a brokered convention for the GOP, I correctly predicted that McCain would win NH with Romney second and that Romney would win Michigan with McCain second. At that time I predicted a Huckabee win in South Carolina with McCain second and a Giuliani win in Florida with McCain second. The current Florida polls show McCain now leading Giuliani in The Sunshine State. It all now hinges on what happens in South Carolina tomorrow. If McCain can win there, he can probably knock out Huckabee. If he wins in Florida, that knocks out Giuliani. Romney, who does fairly well everywhere, although he has only one win (he will probably also win in Nevada, as I predicted on the 7th), will emerge as the one candidate to stop a McCain nomination. Can he garner enough support quickly enough to beat McCain? With folks like Rush Limbaugh giving him support, and McCain's inexplicable habit of poking his finger in the eyes of conservatives, Romney still has a shot.

I was working in New York yesterday, so I was unable to post anything. Time to do some catching up.

After analyzing the results of the Michigan primary, a few thoughts. Mitt Romney continues to do better among Republicans than Independents, while McCain does much better with Independents than Republicans. This was true in New Hampshire and in Michigan. Jay Cost examines that factor, as well as some of the other demographic information coming out of the Michigan results. But, in the end, I have to agree with Byron York's assessment in the National Review. Romney won primarily because he appealed to the major concern of Michigan voters, which is the economy, and he made the case that if Michigan voters wanted to gain an ally in Washington, they needed to vote for him. Therefore, it's too early to conclude that Romney will be able to beat McCain wherever a primary or caucus is closed to Independents, or that Romney will gain enough momentum to start moving into position as the front runner. The latest polls from South Carolina are not yet showing much of a bounce for Romney and, in fact, show McCain taking a solid lead over Huckabee, with Romney and Thompson vying for third place. The latest Florida polls also show McCain taking the lead, in this case over Giuliani. There is now a high degree of dissatisfaction among Giuliani supporters, if this story is to be believed, based on the former New York Mayor's poor showing in the early primary states and his precipitous drop in the national polls and, most recently, in the Florida polls, where he has campaigned heavily.

The bottom line for the GOP race at this moment? It still looks like a three man race, with McCain as a front runner (narrowly) over Romney and Huckabee. Thompson's last stand is in South Carolina (where I believe he will be eliminated), and Giuliani's last stand is in Florida (where I believe he will be eliminated). On Super Tuesday, I expect mixed results, but McCain will come out in the lead.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton cannot be pleased with the Michigan results, which show more evidence of an erosion of African-American support. The exit poll information shows that 68% of African-Americans voted "Uncommitted", a clear indicator of support for Obama and a rejection of Clinton. Obama is leading in the South Carolina polls and I, for one, don't think the pollsters will get that one wrong, as they did here in New Hampshire. Clinton continues to lead in Florida, though, which is a good sign for her, as that will be the story going into Super Tuesday. It still seems as if the Democrats will be faced with a neck-and-neck race for some time to come.

It's primary day in Michigan and that state's election officials are not sure how many people will turn out. In fact, they are so unsure, they will not make a turnout prediction. Apparently, it's the first time they have had both parties on the same day, and all the Democrats, except Hillary, chose not to participate since Michigan violated Democratic Party rules by moving their primary forward. The latest polls on the GOP side show that Mitt Romney and John McCain are neck-and-neck. I think McCain will win, but a Romney win would certainly keep the race interesting.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Obama has taken a narrow lead over Clinton in Nevada. This race is already very interesting, and could get even more compelling and nastier as the two slug it out for the nomination (pity poor John Edwards, who can't seem to bull his way into the conversation). The issue of race has taken front and center, with both sides apparently now looking for a way out. I don't think they can get out of the conversation they have started and, like Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post, I am not at all certain that the Clintons really want to stop it. Robinson wonders if the Clintons have already written off the African-American vote. That may be the only way to go. Certainly, the results from South Carolina will tell us if that might be their only path. Still, the fight over Hillary's remarks regarding civil rights (that it took Lyndon Johnson to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964), is a little silly. Former Johnson aide Joseph Califano tries to set the record straight in this op-ed piece. Essentially, Martin Luther King, Jr. and Lyndon Johnson worked together to achieve passage of that act. It is impossible to imagine it happening at that time without the activism of King and the political arm-twisting of Johnson in tandem. But, as is usually the case, why let the facts get in the way of a good argument (especially if it leads to the Democrats engaging in a fit of self-immolation).

Some new national polls are out, and they show that McCain and Obama are surging. The CBS/New York Times poll shows this, as does the ABC/Washington Post poll. But if you look inside the numbers on the GOP side especially, you see that this story about indecision in South Carolina is confirmed. Many Republicans are still undecided, a fact that I think is driven by the feeling that none of the candidates measures up to the Reagan standard (a problem we are going to have on our side of the aisle as long as Reagan lives in our memories).

In Michigan, it remains a tight race between Romney and McCain according to these polls. In South Carolina, these polls show that McCain is now challenging Huckabee. In Florida, these polls show McCain has now taken the lead over Giuliani. Anyone notice a trend?

Bob Novak says McCain isn't quite talking straight about his tax cut votes. Despite this and other problems, and despite the level of indecision among GOP voters, McCain seems to be approaching the point where he can surge into a position of inevitability. Beat Romney in Michigan, Huckabee in South Carolina and Giuliani in Florida, and I don't see how he can be stopped.

As for the Democrats, it continues to look like it will be a knock-down drag-out fight all the way to the convention, with nasty racial overtones a distinct possibility. Ironic, isn't it? Despite all the polling numbers and all the conventional wisdom that indicate this should be a banner year for the Democrats, both parties may yet follow historical patterns. The GOP may quickly unite around a nominee, considered from the beginning to be next in line, as they always seem to do despite their internal differences. The Democrats may engage in a bitter blood feud as different factions break out the long knives all the way to the end, with a reservoir of bitterness left facing the eventual nominee. The Democrats might still prevail in November, but if it turns out as I have illustrated in the preceding sentences, it will be a lot more difficult for them than it could have been, and the election will be a lot closer than current polls would indicate.

Dick Morris says that John McCain is now the man to beat for the GOP nomination, and may be the man to win it all.

Mitt Romney is making it a contest in Michigan, according to the latest polls. He and McCain are neck-and-neck. Romney MUST win in Michigan if he wants to keep his candidacy alive.

George Will is pessimistic about the GOP's chances in November.

Jonah Goldberg is pessimistic about the future of American Conservatism in general.

I hate to agree with their pessimism, but I do. Ironically, it is all being driven by our increasing prosperity. As we grow richer (as a society in general), we are less concerned about the increasing burden of taxation, and more concerned about other dangers, real or imagined. We acquiesce to a larger government role as our protector against threats as diverse as international terrorists, global warming, and the perils of smoking. As more people look for that protection, naturally they gravitate toward those politicians who offer it. Some call themselves Democrats, offering protection against global warming, environmental degradation, the vicissitudes of capitalism, or the ravages of smoking. Others call themselves Republicans, offering protection against terrorists, rogue regimes, or criminals. All require a larger government, especially on the Federal level, to achieve their goals.

Real L.A. police officer Jack Dunphy, who writes for National Review, sings the praises of the best show on television (an assessment I share), HBO's The Wire. If you subscribe to HBO, it's one show you should not miss.

New Hampshire officials agree to a recount of the primary results. Don't expect much change in the results, despite all the Internet rumors about fraud (expect such rumors to swirl around every election now going forward, whether based in fact or not). Meanwhile, John Distaso has this analysis and defense of the primary, which will certainly be challenged by those jealous of its place as we approach the next one in 2012.

The activities of those Iranian speedboats the other day in the Straits of Hormuz are an echo of a successful strategy employed by a U.S. Marine Corps general during war games in 2002. The American Marine general led the attacking force in a stunning victory over the U.S. Navy, until the Navy ordered the games run again, resulting in a reversal of the result. Students of military history were not surprised by this (I remember reading the story when it first came out), as this is a pattern that repeats itself inside the military establishments of all powerful nations, fed by conceit and complacency. I hope the Navy takes a second look at the real results of those games, because it is just possible that the Iranians employ some smart people themselves who may figure out similar tactics on their own. Certainly, the Army and Marine Corps have learned some grim lessons fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan that have caused them to re-write their doctrines. Let's hope the Navy doesn't have to lose some very expensive ships to learn similar lessons.

If you are not a fan of Hillary Clinton, then this story should fill your heart with glee, as the Clintons face a potential backlash from African-Americans as they try to grapple with the Obama phenomenon.

If, like me, you travel by air regularly, and you need to show a state-issued driver's license to go through security, this story should interest you.

Another third party effort fizzles.

In Michigan, John McCain vaults ahead of Mitt Romney, according to this new poll. That's bad news for Mitt, who faces elimination if he loses in Michigan. Meanwhile, McCain vaults ahead of Giuliani in Florida, according to this new poll. That's bad news for Giuliani, who faces elimination if he can't win in Florida. More and more, it looks like this will be a race between Huckabee and McCain, with McCain in the position of advantage (in my opinion, at least). My guess is that Romney will drop out after losing in Michigan, Thompson will drop out after losing in South Carolina, and Giuliani will drop out after Super-Duper Tuesday, having lost in Florida and then not winning a single state on Feb. 5. If McCain and Huckabee trade states evenly that day, then we could go all the way to the convention. But if McCain can win a majority of those states, then he will probably be able to ride the wave to secure the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton in the South Carolina polls, while Clinton leads Obama in the Florida polls. This really is shaping up as a race that could go all the way to the convention.

Why did the pollsters get it wrong in New Hampshire? Dick Bennett at American Research Group and John Zogby of Zogby International says they simply ran out of time. Both men say the Monday numbers showed Clinton on the rebound, but when averaged in with the previous days those numbers still showed a solid Obama win.

The Mystery Pollster says his colleagues should take a lesson from a similar polling debacle in 1948.

Charles Krauthammer believes we should be grateful that the people of New Hampshire chose to prevent the coronation of Barack Obama. Dennis Kucinich is skeptical about the results, though, and is asking for a recount.

On the GOP side, the battle is on for conservatives in South Carolina. The latest polls from South Carolina show it's a battle between McCain and Huckabee (although it is interesting to note that the two most recent polls show McCain in the lead). Obama has a solid lead over Clinton on the Democratic side. It appears that McCain has the momentum, but Huckabee should do well with the evangelicals. There are still eight days until the GOP primary, so things can change. On the Democratic side, the primary is on the 26th, so still a couple of weeks for Clinton to make up ground.

The latest polls from Michigan (GOP only, as the Democrats, Hillary excepted, chose not to participate) show a mixed bag. Rossman Group has Huckabee 23, Romney 22 and McCain 18 (with the rest in single digits), while Strategic Vision has McCain 29, Romney 20, Huckabee 18 and Giuliani with 13. They go to the polls on Tuesday, so there isn't much time for Romney to save his candidacy, as everyone seems to agree that if he loses in the state of his birth, he's done. The polling data does not look encouraging for him.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ANALYSIS

So, now that the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is in the books, it's time to take a look at what happened, and why, as best as we can tell with the data we have.

First, since this is my blog, a look at my primary predictions. On turnout, following Secretary of State Bill Gardner's lead, I predicted a huge turnout. Bill Gardner is hardly ever wrong about these things, so I felt pretty safe. I was right to follow his lead. With 96% of precincts reporting, 279,276 voters went into the Democratic primary and 228,531 went into the GOP primary for a total of 507,807. The final total will be a bit more, as those last ballots are counted. Score one for Gardner (and for me).

On the GOP side I predicted McCain 35%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 17%, Paul 10% and Giuliani 7%. The actual results, with 96% reporting, are McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9% and Paul with 8%. I nailed the order for the first three (as did most everyone else) and got the McCain-Romney five-point spread correct. I over-estimated Mike Huckabee's Iowa bounce.

On the Democratic side, like just about everyone else, I blew it. But, in the words of the poet Meatloaf, "two out of three ain't bad". When I calculated the raw numbers to come up with the percentages I posted the other day, I nailed Democratic turnout and the number of votes the winner would get, but I had the wrong person getting to 110,000 votes, it was Hillary, not Obama.

So, why did Hillary win? Jay Cost breaks down the numbers, but the essential fact to know, and which I quickly discerned early in the evening when I started to see the town-by-town numbers, is that Hillary beat Obama with traditional, dyed-in-the-wool New Hampshire Democrats. Middle and lower income, union household, working man and woman, older, high school educated voters. Obama won the upper income, college educated, younger voters. Hillary won places like Manchester, Nashua and Salem, while Obama won Portsmouth, Amherst and Keene.

So, what now? On the GOP side, Mitt Romney is on life support. After spending a ton of money on Iowa and New Hampshire, and finishing second in both, he needs to get a win (sorry, Wyoming, you just don't cut it for purposes of this race). If he loses in Michigan, where his father was Governor, then it's lights out. Although he did poorly here, Huckabee still managed a third place finish. He needs to win in South Carolina, where he is leading in the polls, and then he can be poised to do very well in Florida. McCain has a lot of momentum coming out of the Granite State, but he needs to prove that he is more than just our favorite son. A win in Michigan would serve that purpose, as well as finishing off Romney. Follow up with a win in Nevada and a win or second place in Florida, and McCain can roar into Super-Duper Tuesday with the chance to become the inevitable nominee. If, however, Romney wins in Michigan, Huckabee wins in South Carolina, Romney or Huckabee wins in Nevada, then Giuliani can make a case that McCain can't get it done, opening the door for the former New York City Mayor to win in Florida (where he is campaigning hard to achieve just that result). This race could go all the way to the convention with at least two, and probably three viable candidates.

On the Democratic side, just hours after wondering if she needed to fire some of her campaign staff and considering a strategy of just skipping Nevada, now Hillary has some much needed momentum. Her people should see that she won with the traditional Democratic coalition of voters, although she may not be able to count on many African-American votes, as I suspect that, despite the narrow loss in New Hampshire, many of those folks have been inspired by Obama and now are willing to back him. Thus, Hillary's path to victory is to run hard for those voters (African-Americans excepted). She needs to see Edwards drop out, as he is competing for the same folks. Meanwhile, Obama should continue to do very well with the upper income Liberal crowd, as well as African-Americans. That means this race could also very well go all the way to the convention.

Bottom line? The fun is just beginning.

BIG NH VOTER TURNOUT

Reports are coming in of a big turnout in New Hampshire today. In my town, the clerk told me that she had already seen 300 voters by 11 AM. I calculate that, if that rate continues until the polls close at 7:30 PM here, then we will see more than 1100 voters out of a total of approximately 1500 registered voters in my town. The clerk said she might run out of ballots and need to get more.

That dovetails with this story about turnout, and this one, and this one.

Matt Drudge is also reporting an "epic turnout for Dems", with clerks calling for more ballots in the heavily Democratic districts on the Seacoast and in Nashua.

We may exceed Secretary of State Bill Gardner's prediction of 500,000, which would be a new Presidential primary record.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTIONS

The last polls here in New Hampshire show Obama and McCain as the leaders as we head for the clubhouse. Zogby International shows that both Obama and McCain are widening their respective leads, with Obama now in double-digits. There appears to be only one question left. How many independents will vote, and in which primary? If independents break in larger numbers to the Democratic primary, then Obama easily wins by double-digits, but Romney stays closer to McCain, and might even pull it out. But there is also the possibility that so many independents will show up that there will be more than enough to go around for both Obama and McCain.

So, for what it's worth (not much) and at the risk of some embarrassment, here are my New Hampshire primary predictions:

Democrats

Obama 41%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 8%

Republicans

McCain 35%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%

I'll try to post something later today as we learn about turnout. Also, I will be on again with Dan Rea on WBZ tonight, probably after 9 PM, as we analyze the real results. Then, all you out-of-staters can go home.

BTW, check out these latest numbers from South Carolina.

Here is the RealClearPolitics summary of the latest New Hampshire polls. The bottom line? Obama continues to break away from Clinton on the Democratic side and McCain continues to create more separation from Romney on the GOP side, with Huckabee now solidly in third place.

For the Democrats, I think the Clinton people are going to have to accept defeat, and work on a strategy to re-tool their campaign for the next 30 days, with an eye to Florida on the 29th and all the states on Super Tuesday. Because she already has so many super delegates, she has an advantage over Obama in the delegate count. That means she can survive some defeats. But she has to start winning somewhere, or else she will be written off by the establishment, who will then throw in with Obama.

Update...Matt Drudge is reporting that some inside the Hillary Clinton camp are already debating on whether or not she should drop out of the race, as she is now facing a double-digit deficit in New Hampshire and a potential for embarrassing defeats here, followed by South Carolina.

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?! "She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out." "Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.

Wow. Read the whole thing.

For the Republicans, it is looking increasingly possible that we could go all the way to the convention without a clear winner. New Hampshire could see a McCain win by a few points over Romney, and Huckabee doing better than expected while sliding into third place. If Huckabee overtakes Romney, he is done, but I don't expect that to happen. Then we could see the following scenario for the GOP (everything after Iowa and Wyoming, of course, is just speculation on my part)...

Iowa (1/3) - Huckabee wins, Romney second.

Wyoming (1/5) - Romney wins, Thompson second.

NH (1/8) - McCain wins, Romney second.

Michigan (1/15) - Romney wins, McCain second.

Nevada (1/19) - Romney wins, McCain second.

South Carolina (1/19) - Huckabee wins, McCain second.

Florida (1/29) - Giuliani wins, McCain second.

Maine (2/1) - McCain wins, Huckabee second.

Then we hit Super Tuesday on the 5th with events in 22 states and American Samoa and no clear front runner. Brokered convention, anyone?

Bill Kristol writes about Mike Huckabee in his first op-ed for the NY Times.

In New Hampshire, McCain is finding that old magic, while Bill Clinton is not.

Bob Novak writes that Hillary and Mitt are running into a head wind.

By the way, just as I was last night, I will be on WBZ-AM in Boston with Dan Rea starting at 8 PM tonight as we broadcast live from the Radisson Hotel in Manchester (formerly the Center of NH).

Mitt Romney wins the GOP caucuses in Wyoming.

Unfortunately for Mitt, it probably won't given him much of a bounce in the New Hampshire polls. The latest polls, conveniently put together and averaged by the folks at RealClearPolitics, show John McCain in the lead with Romney a few points behind. On the Democratic side, the polls show Barack Obama in the lead, with Hillary trailing.

As this Washington Post story points out, the momentum for Obama here in New Hampshire is being driven by independents, many of whom are relatively recent arrivals. If it were up to the old-line Democratic establishment here, Hillary would be the clear winner. But, it isn't up to them. They are going to have to deal with the fact that thousands of undeclared voters are going to walk into their party and hand them a different winner. The same, of course, is true in the GOP, although this time the Republican establishment here seems to be divided, although leaning toward McCain (back in 2000 the mainstream GOP here wanted George W. Bush, but those undeclared voters stormed the polls and gave the primary to McCain). Personally, I have always objected to the idea that people who do not feel committed enough to our ideals that they wish to register as Republicans should be allowed to walk into my primary and choose who they believe ought to be my party's nominee. Perhaps, after Hillary goes down in flames, some of my brethren in the Democratic party will begin to think the same way.

LATEST NH PRIMARY STUFF

Breaking News....Rasmussen Reports has released it's first daily tracking poll for New Hampshire, and it shows that Obama has surged into a 10-point lead over Clinton, with Obama at 37%, Clinton at 27%, Edwards at 19% and Richardson with 8%. Rasmussen is projecting that 40% of the Democratic ballots will be cast by independent voters. (The story is courtesy of the Union Leader, as I have been unable to get on the Rasmussen site, no doubt the traffic for that site is huge at the moment).

Update...for the GOP Rasmussen now has McCain 31%, Romney 26% in New Hampshire, in a survey conducted Friday night. Ron Paul has 14% and Mike Huckabee has 11%. Giuliani trails with 8% and Thompson has 5%.

Here is a possible explanation for what is going on in the GOP. Essentially, more lower-income voters are Republican-leaning, and they have different priorities than the old country club Republicans (more and more of the country club set are voting Democratic these days, anyway).

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick makes the case for Barack Obama for President.

Bob Herbert tries to explain the Obama phenomenon.

Peter A. Brown explains why we should be wary of the New Hampshire polls. Here is a summary of those polls, courtesy of RealClearPolitics.

Hillary is booed at the 100 Club dinner here in New Hampshire. A sign, I think, of the passion of the Obama supporters (and, perhaps, a little bit of rudeness, as well).

Bill Kristol thanks Iowa Democratic caucus goers for sticking it to Hillary. Here is the Weekly Standard cover story on the fall of the House of Clinton. As much as I'd like to, though, I'm not counting them out just yet.

Here is the big story that broke yesterday afternoon. The New Hampshire Secretary of State is predicting a record turnout for the primary on Tuesday. He believes 500,000 people will vote, far in excess of the old record of 396,000 set in 1992., with 260,000 voting in the Democratic primary and 240,00 on the GOP side. He says there will be 150,000 independents who will jump in, with 90,000 voting on the Democratic side (35% of total) and 60,000 on the GOP side (25% of total). This is very good news for Obama (and very bad news for Hillary). This is also good news for McCain, but it would be better for him if a larger percentage of independents voted in the GOP primary.

ELECTION ANALYSIS

Iowa has spoken. Now it's our turn.

Here are the results from Iowa, courtesy of CNN. Here is the latest from the Associated Press about Obama's win. More reaction from Dick Morris, who says Hillary is down but not out, David Brooks who says last night gave us two political earthquakes in the form of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, John F. Harris and Jonathan Martin see the GOP race in total disarray, and Fred Barnes who sees Hillary on the ropes.

As for me, I am struck by the massive turnout of Democrats in Iowa. It speaks to two things. One, the great appeal of Obama, especially to young people. Two, the fact that Democrats are still energized, as they were in 2006, despite the fact that the Iraq War seems to be going better. If this trend continues here in New Hampshire, then we can expect (as I originally predicted a year ago) that independents will go into the Democratic primary in droves, which will help Obama win here. A smaller cadre of voters in the GOP primary will hurt McCain, but he has such momentum here that he may still be able to win. It all depends on whether or not GOP base voters here are turned off by Mike Huckabee's positions on a variety of issues to such an extent that they will look for an alternative and that they will reject Romney as that alternative (and Giuliani or Thompson for that matter). Romney still has a chance under this scenario, if he can convince those voters that he is the only viable, true-blue conservative alternative to Huckabee. My gut tells me that he will not be able to make that case (despite the help of the National Review) because Republican voters, concerned about the Iraq War and national security in general, will look at the relative inexperience of Huckabee on those issues (and Obama, as he gets closer to becoming the Democratic nominee), turn to Romney and see his relative inexperience on those issues, turn to Giuliani, see that he is unacceptable to social conservatives, see Thompson as an ineffective campaigner, and look again at McCain as the last man standing (as Bob Novak wrote the other day).

Prediction for New Hampshire (with the caveat that I am free to change my mind as we see the last poll results just before election day on Tuesday)....Obama wins big on the Democratic side, and McCain wins narrowly on the GOP side, with Huckabee sliding into second, thus eliminating Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani (although Giuliani will keep going, hoping to score some victories in the larger states).

By the way, I will be making an appearance on Dan Rea's show on WBZ-AM tonight from 9-11 PM, as they broadcast live from the Center of New Hampshire in Manchester. It should be fun.

Patrick Ruffini is predicting a big win for John McCain here in New Hampshire, and he shares some analysis of the numbers from McCain's big win here in 2000 for some historical perspective. Basically, Ruffini believes that independents will turn out in large numbers for the Arizona senator, as they did in 2000. I am not convinced, as of yet. There is still a possibility for my original prediction to come true, which is that independents here will turn out in a much larger percentage for Obama in the Democratic primary. If that happens, then Obama wins the Democratic primary here by a significant margin, and Romney holds on for a narrow win in the GOP primary, with McCain second and the rest of the field trailing. If independents do turn out in large numbers for McCain, then he will win his primary (and Romney will suffer a big beat down), while Clinton will pull out the race on the Democratic side (which will likely save her candidacy after what I believe will be a defeat in Iowa).

The latest polls show how the campaign is moving here in New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, Clinton is maintaining a very slim lead over Obama, with Edwards still in striking distance. A significant Obama win in Iowa will certainly help him move those numbers, and Edwards still has a chance to do the same, but it is all about independents here in the Granite State (see above). On the GOP side, McCain has now taken the lead over Romney. This means the former Massachusetts governor really needs to beat back the Huckabee challenge in Iowa, as I am not at all sure that he can survive losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Here is a very different view of Benazir Bhutto as compared to the glowing tributes we heard both before and after her death. Meanwhile, Bhutto's husband, described as a divisive figure in this New York Times story, has taken charge of her party, despite the fact that her 19-year-old son was named as Chairman. The other once-exiled former Prime Minister and opponent of the current regime, Nawaz Sharif, is calling on President Musharraf to step down. Pat Buchanan says we are impotent when it comes to influencing events in Pakistan. The Washington Times is reporting that the government in Pakistan is expected to announce that the elections will be postponed. In the end, the only people served by the instability created by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto are the Islamists, whether they call themselves Taliban or Al Qaeda or something else. This does not mean that I completely buy into the story that it was the Islamists who killed her. It seems clear to me that the government is trying to muddy the waters as to the manner in which she was killed. Recent video seems to confirm that a man walked up to her car and fired three shots at her as she stood up waving to the crowd through the sunroof, and the video shows she fell into the car just a moment before the suicide bomber detonated his device. The video I have seen makes it pretty clear she was killed by a bullet, not the bomb. As to why the government would want to point the finger at the bomber rather than the shooter is beyond me. In both cases, the assassins managed to get very close to the car, which would seem to bolster criticism that Bhutto did not receive adequate security. In any event, whether it was the Islamists or someone else who ordered the hit, Pakistan is on the verge of implosion, which is very bad news for all of us.

The latest poll from Iowa (courtesy of the Des Moines Register) shows Obama taking a lead over Clinton and Edwards on the Democratic side, and Huckabee with a slim lead over Romney on the GOP side. Adam Nagourney, writing in the New York Times, wonders what might happen if Iowa doesn't settle anything. Meanwhile, Ralph Nader endorses Edwards. Dean Barnett has this analysis of the state of the race. As we head into the caucuses on Thursday, it seems pretty clear that three contenders will come out on the Democratic side, all with some claim of victory (only Hillary's will seem a bit strained, as she was the front-runner for most of the year). For the GOP, if Romney can come back and beat Huckabee, that will be a big boost for him coming into New Hampshire, where he needs to fend of McCain's surge. The big loser early is Giuliani, who could find himself finishing a distant third or fourth and could quickly lose any relevance as the battle boils down to Romney, Huckabee and McCain.

Walter Russell Mead says the world needs the U.S. to continue to act as policeman for the Persian Gulf.